Reflecting for perspective...

[HolyHandgernade]

We all understand you have to take advantage of what the opportunity brings to you, but I think it is also important to remember, this team is WAYYYY ahead of schedule. The plan was get the offense set for Mahomes, concentrate on defense the second year, and maybe by year 2, definitely by year 3, we have a monster Championship level team. Mahomes has accelerated that projection, and although Hunt represents a setback, I don't think it is one that can't be remedied sooner rather than later.

SI:

AFC WEST

Chargers: 10–6
Broncos: 8–8
Chiefs: 7–9
Raiders: 5–11

CBS Sports:

AFC West
*Chargers: 10-6
Chiefs: 9-7
Raiders: 6-10
Broncos: 6-10

AFC West Bold Prediction: Chargers win the division.

This might not seem like a bold prediction -- because a lot of people are picking the Chargers -- but trust me, it is. For one, I'm putting my unblemished AFC West track record on the line with this pick. Six teams have made the playoffs out of this division over the past four years and I've correctly picked them all. Basically, if you had bet on just my AFC West picks over the past four years, you'd be a billionaire. The other reason this is a crazy pick is because someone out there clearly has a Chargers voodoo doll. I mean, the injuries in L.A. are getting out of hand. However, I'm going to ignore all of that and pick the Chargers to win the division anyway. On a related note, if you're the one holding the Chargers voodoo doll, please don't use it on Philip Rivers.

and...

AFC West
Chargers, Chiefs, Raiders, Broncos

If the Chargers can avoid further catastrophic injuries and if the coaching staff manages the game in an adroit manner, I think they flirt with the top seed in the conference. Oh yeah, and if their specialists don't undermine the entire season. Overall, I love the roster, though I'd love it more with Hunter Henry and Jason Verrett off IR. Every other team in the division is in major transition at the QB or coach spot. If KC had a semblance of a defense I'd buy in, but they don't and Andy Reid will trail early in a lot of games which means a pass-happy approach with a first-year starting QB. Oakland's best player is holding out, Jon Gruden is shaking off the rust and Denver's ability to pass protect and run the football remain under serious scrutiny, while the secondary ain't what it used to be.

NFL.com:

AFC West champs
1. Los Angeles Chargers (16 votes: Baldinger, Battista, Bergman, Brandt, Bush, Casserly, Grant, Harrison, Jones-Drew, Patra, Rank, Rosenthal, Schein, Sessler, Shook, Tomlinson)
2. Oakland Raiders (3 votes: Carr, Jones, Mariucci)
T-3. Denver Broncos (1 vote: Robinson)
T-3. Kansas City Chiefs (1 vote: Frelund)

Why Gregg Rosenthal chose the Chargers: The rosters in the rest of the AFC West are in various states of transition, while the Chargers are loaded at nearly every position group. There's nothing standing in the way of this team and a playoff bye, except perhaps a lack of home-field advantage.

and...

AFC Wild Card 1
T-1. Jacksonville Jaguars (4 votes: Bush, Casserly, Patra, Rosenthal)
T-1. Tennessee Titans (4 votes: Brandt, Rank, Shook, Tomlinson)
T-3 Houston Texans (3 votes: Frelund, Harrison, Schein)
T-3 Kansas City Chiefs (3 votes: Battista, Grant, Mariucci)
T-3 Pittsburgh Steelers (3 votes: Baldinger, Bergman, Robinson)
6. Los Angeles Chargers (2 votes: Carr, Jones)
T-7. Baltimore Ravens (1 vote: Sessler)
T-7. Oakland Raiders (1 vote: Jones-Drew)

Why Adam Rank chose the Titans: The Titans are one of the most-besmirched returning playoff teams I can remember. Hell, they won a playoff game. (Even though it was against the Chiefs, it's still a win.) Now they have a coaching staff with an offense that's actually suited for players in the year 2018. It's like the first time your family brought home a flat screen -- it may or may not be top of the line, but it is clearly better than that old black-and-white tube TV.

Bleacher Report:

The Kansas City Chiefs were one of the league's hottest teams early in 2017 before a midseason slump brought the team back to earth. While the team still finished 10-6 and with a postseason spot, that midseason stretch did highlight some weaknesses—namely a disappointing defense that yielded 365.1 yards per game, fifth in the NFL.

The porous defense may be even worse in 2018. Safety Eric Berry should be back after missing most of last season with an Achilles injury. However, veterans like Marcus Peters, Ron Parker, Tamba Hali and Terrance Mitchell are gone.

A poor defense is going to be tough to overcome, especially with the steady hand of Alex Smith no longer guiding the offense.

The Chiefs obviously believe the long-term future is brighter with Patrick Mahomes II under center. This may be true, but the Texas Tech product, who has just one pro start on his resume, is going to experience some growing pains. If those include numerous turnovers (Smith had just six total in 2017), the defense is going to be exposed even more—and the Chiefs will be in store for a notable step back.

Prediction: 8-8

Sporting News:

1. Los Angeles Chargers (13-3)
2. Kansas City Chiefs (8-8)
3. Oakland Raiders (7-9)
4. Denver Broncos (7-9)

Only the Chiefs or Broncos have won the AFC West over the last eight seasons. That run is likely to come to an end in 2018. The Chargers, who last won the division in 2009, the last of four consecutive titles, still have Philip Rivers, still going strong in his 15 season. Now his long wait for a running game and defense to match his efficient gunslinging is finished, as the 9-3 run to finish 2017 indicates.

and...

AFC West 2018 predictions: Chargers bolt to top; mediocre at best for rest

Only the Chiefs or Broncos have won the AFC West over the last eight seasons. That run is likely to come to an end in 2018.

The Chiefs got a career year from Alex Smith last season only to trade the quarterback and move to the Patrick Mahomes era. The Broncos are also working in a new QB in Case Keenum.

The Raiders had a playoff breakthrough in 2016, but they recoiled to 6-10 last season, which promoted their bringing back Jon Gruden as head coach. Derek Carr, once entrenched as a can't-miss franchise QB, now faces an immediate future as uncertain as those of Mahomes and Keenum.

Then there's the Chargers, who last won the division in 2009, the last of four consecutive titles. They still have Philip Rivers, still going strong in his 15 season. Now his long wait for a running game and defense to match his efficient gunslinging is finished, as the 9-3 run to finish 2017 indicates.

The Guardian:

AFC West champ
With a competent kicking game, the Chargers might have taken the division last year. It is no guarantee that Caleb Sturgis can provide it, but his modest 81% career success rate is still a great deal better than the 66% achieved by a hapless cast in 2017. PB

The Chiefs’ season may come down to how good Patrick Mahomes ends up being in his first full year at quarterback, but this feels like a team that can pick up enough wins in the regular season to capture the division and then go on to suffer an Andy Reid-assisted flameout in their first playoff game. HF

The Chargers. Philip Rivers is back at the stick of last year’s top-ranked passing offense and the defense is better than it gets credit for. They finished strong, winning nine of their last 12 games after going winless in September. It should be enough to end Kansas City’s two-year reign atop the division. BAG

Preseason injuries have tortured the Chargers, again. Still, LA are poised for a deep playoff run They still have the top edge-rushing duo in the league, a great secondary and a seasoned quarterback. OC

ESPN:

2. The Los Angeles Chargers will win the AFC West
The model is opting to side with old reliable Philip Rivers over the Patrick Mahomes Mania that has swept the nation. After all, the Chargers had the fifth-most efficient offense (expected points added per play, with garbage time weighted less) a season ago.

One way for the Chargers to help themselves and this prediction? Rely more on Rivers -- and less on Melvin Gordon. As Warren Sharp has pointed out, the Chargers' eagerness to run on first-and-10 has hurt them. Last season Los Angeles ranked third in expected points added per play on pass plays on first-and-10 and yet passed in those situations at only the 24th-highest rate. The Baltimore Ravens passed more, and their quarterback is Joe Flacco!

Hunter Henry's and Jason Verrett's season-ending injuries are implicitly considered here, but if Chargers-itis continues, FPI may ask for a mulligan on this one.

and...

Kansas City Chiefs
Full schedule | Predicted record: 9-7

The trick for the Chiefs will be to keep their heads above water over the season's first six games. During that stretch, they'll play four road games, with the Chargers, Steelers and Patriots among those opponents. If the Chiefs survive that stretch, things get easier and they could win at least 10 games for the fourth consecutive season. -- Adam Teicher

[OnTheWarpath15]

Originally Posted by DaFace

On the surface I agree with you. But the reality is that the only thing people won't bitch about would be winning the Super Bowl.

• Before the season? "If we see growth out of Mahomes and get to maybe 9-7, it'll be a successful season."
• After the first few games? "Mahomes looks great. We might be able to win a playoff game with him, but we'll have to see what happens when teams adjust to him.
• A couple weeks ago? "Anything less than a first-round bye would be a huge letdown."
• Now? "Anything less than an AFCCG appearance is a ****ing travesty."
• If we made it to the AFCCG? "We may never have this good of a chance to make a Super Bowl in our lifetimes."
• If we made it to the Super Bowl? "If we lose this, we'll probably never get here again."

So yes, I will be as disappointed as you suggest if we lose our first playoff game - no doubt. But the reality is that it's largely driven by our lizard brains' inability to keep from raising our expectations every step of the way. As I say often, 31 of 32 teams end the season in disappointment. The distance between how fans feel at the end of the season between #2 and #32 is far smaller than anyone wants to admit.

Good post, and I agree for the most part. Regarding the bold, however - I think the frustration will come from the fact that if the Chiefs had even a below average defense instead of a historically bad one, we'd all be pretty happy win or lose in the AFCCG or SB because we got over the hump of that 1st round loss and lost to a good team who just had a better day.

Losing because your defense can't stop anyone is a movie we've all seen before, and it sucks more than ****ing Gigli.