***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by Monticore

Isn’t coconut oil high in saturated fats “bad” fat and can raise your ldl.

And wouldn’t high cholesterol make you more at risk to covid?

That's one argument. The other is that since they are a MCT they are not bad.

Coconut oil is a tropical oil derived from the dried nut of the coconut palm tree. Its nutritional components include the following:

It contains nearly 13.5 grams of total fat (11.2 grams of which are saturated fat) per tablespoon.
It also contains about 0.8 grams of monounsaturated fat and about 3.5 grams of polyunsaturated fat, which are both considered “healthy” fats.
It doesn’t contain cholesterol.
It’s high in vitamin E and polyphenols.
According to the Mayo Clinic, the oil from fresh coconuts contains a high proportion of medium chain fatty acids. These don’t seem to be stored in fat tissue as easily as are long chain fatty acids.

Experts say that coconut oil’s lauric acid, which is a healthy type of saturated fatty acid, is quickly burned up by the body for energy rather than stored. That’s why some people think of coconut oil as a potential weight loss tool.

All types of fat have the same number of calories. It’s only the difference in the fatty acid makeup that makes each fat distinct from the others.

https://www.healthline.com/health/hi...il#coconut-oil

[Monticore]

I would stick with the non fad options in most situations when it comes to health choices , that is just me though. Olive oil canola oil , even butter .

[dirk digler]

This research group started this seroprevalence study almost from the beginning in NYC. The link is here https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2912-6

This tweet is from one of the author's if it is tldr

Our NYC serosurvey paper is now out in Nature:
1) if extrapolated to the NYC population we found>1.7 million infected and IFR at 0.97
2) earlier introduction of the virus into city than officially detected
3) seroprevalence AND titers are stable so far https://t.co/XK3TWVveXf

— Florian Krammer (@florian_krammer) November 3, 2020

[MahomesMagic]

Originally Posted by dirk digler

This research group started this seroprevalence study almost from the beginning in NYC. The link is here https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2912-6

This tweet is from one of the author's if it is tldr

Our NYC serosurvey paper is now out in Nature:
1) if extrapolated to the NYC population we found>1.7 million infected and IFR at 0.97
2) earlier introduction of the virus into city than officially detected
3) seroprevalence AND titers are stable so far https://t.co/XK3TWVveXf

— Florian Krammer (@florian_krammer) November 3, 2020

Yeah, if we look for it we can create a sky high IFR from extrapolation from a small area. The idea that the IFR is close to 1% looks laughable at this point.

This is still the failed Imperial College model that said 90,000 would be dead in Sweden.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by Monticore

I would stick with the non fad options in most situations when it comes to health choices , that is just me though. Olive oil canola oil , even butter .

I don't think the overall health benefits of coconut oil are fad by any means. It has been pushed as a health benefit for a long time.

[MahomesMagic]

Originally Posted by petegz28

I don't think the overall health benefits of coconut oil are fad by any means. It has been pushed as a health benefit for a long time.

I would choose coconut oil over canola oil. One is natural and the other is highly processed.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by MahomesMagic

This is still the failed Imperial College model that said 90,000 would be dead in Sweden.

They never made that prediction.

[dirk digler]

Originally Posted by MahomesMagic

Yeah, if we look for it we can create a sky high IFR from extrapolation from a small area. The idea that the IFR is close to 1% looks laughable at this point.

This is still the failed Imperial College model that said 90,000 would be dead in Sweden.

Their data lines up with other studies for NYC. NYC is unique case that doesn't apply to any other US cities that I can think of.

[Monticore]

Originally Posted by MahomesMagic

I would choose coconut oil over canola oil. One is natural and the other is highly processed.

i will stick with olive oil when cooking , and using coconut oil to fight COVID seems like a fad to me.

https://www.hsph.harvard.edu/nutriti...s/coconut-oil/

[O.city]

Originally Posted by MahomesMagic

Yeah, if we look for it we can create a sky high IFR from extrapolation from a small area. The idea that the IFR is close to 1% looks laughable at this point.

This is still the failed Imperial College model that said 90,000 would be dead in Sweden.

They did the blood work. Literally.

Now, as we know, IFR is age stratified and NY is a unique case, but they're probably correct here.

IFR isn't going to be the same everywhere or in every situation.

[MahomesMagic]

Originally Posted by Donger

They never made that prediction.

The Imperial College model used a .9 IFR and assumption of 80 percent infection of population. Using those basic assumptions you arrive at 90,000 dead.

Sorry, your defense of Neil Ferguson is weak.

[MahomesMagic]

Originally Posted by O.city

They did the blood work. Literally.

Now, as we know, IFR is age stratified and NY is a unique case, but they're probably correct here.

IFR isn't going to be the same everywhere or in every situation.

That was my point. Who cares about IFR in a one small area? The question is what is the best estimate of ifr globally and at a national level.

The Covid Doomsday people I see on Twitter are still stuck on failed models from 8 months ago.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by MahomesMagic

That was my point. Who cares about IFR in a one small area? The question is what is the best estimate of ifr globally and at a national level.

The Covid Doomsday people I see on Twitter are still stuck on failed models from 8 months ago.

Because it shows what can happen with overshot and no precautions in place and when hospital capacity is stretched or when nursing homes get hit.

Nursing homes are getting swamped here in Mo and with as much community spread as we have, I don't think you can do much to protect them.

[Monticore]

Originally Posted by MahomesMagic

That was my point. Who cares about IFR in a one small area? The question is what is the best estimate of ifr globally and at a national level.

The Covid Doomsday people I see on Twitter are still stuck on failed models from 8 months ago.

can't just ignoring it either., it happened it could happen elsewhere.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by MahomesMagic

The Imperial College model used a .9 IFR and assumption of 80 percent infection of population. Using those basic assumptions you arrive at 90,000 dead.

Sorry, your defense of Neil Ferguson is weak.

THREAD: You may have seen false claims that Imperial COVID-19 "modelling envisaged Sweden paying a heavy price for its rejection of lockdown, with 40,000 Covid deaths by 1 May and almost 100,000 by June". Our researchers made no such prediction

— Imperial College (@imperialcollege) May 6, 2020