Doesn't look like such a hard task to rebuild the defense now, does it.

[Chargem]

Maybe I'm insane but I feel like Ford takes a non ridiculous contract.

The dream is Berry takes a restructure and Houston takes an AVV lowering extension which opens up enough cap to open up the FA market a bit more after the Hill and Jones extensions.

[Walt White]

Originally Posted by Chargem

Maybe I'm insane but I feel like Ford takes a non ridiculous contract.

The dream is Berry takes a restructure and Houston takes an AVV lowering extension which opens up enough cap to open up the FA market a bit more after the Hill and Jones extensions.

I wonder if Berry and Houston don't want to restructure if we will end up cutting or trading them? Wouldn't be a good idea without a replacement plan in place, but signing Ford, Hill, and Jones have to be priority.

What do you think is non ridiculous for Ford? I'm kind of mixed on it. Has he proven enough beyond one year to warrant a historic contract? At the same time, this defense especially can't afford to lose it's best players.

Ford and Hill are going to get their money. I just hope that it is something somewhat reasonable. That would help for the flexibility of the future and building on what we have.

[Chargem]

Originally Posted by Walt White

I wonder if Berry and Houston don't want to restructure if we will end up cutting or trading them? Wouldn't be a good idea without a replacement plan in place, but signing Ford, Hill, and Jones have to be priority.

What do you think is non ridiculous for Ford? I'm kind of mixed on it. Has he proven enough beyond one year to warrant a historic contract? At the same time, this defense especially can't afford to lose it's best players.

Ford and Hill are going to get their money. I just hope that it is something somewhat reasonable. That would help for the flexibility of the future and building on what we have.

I don't like cutting or trading either Berry or Houston (depending on the health outlook for Berry after surgery), In those situations the dead cap is just too large in my opinion. From memory the dead cap on Houston was around $7.5m per year, if you cut him you have $12.5m to spend on a replacement, I don't think you find someone to create his production for $12.5m in free agency.

On Ford, I think a non-ridiculous contract is $13-16m per year average.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by Chargem

I don't like cutting or trading either Berry or Houston (depending on the health outlook for Berry after surgery), In those situations the dead cap is just too large in my opinion. From memory the dead cap on Houston was around $7.5m per year, if you cut him you have $12.5m to spend on a replacement, I don't think you find someone to create his production for $12.5m in free agency.

On Ford, I think a non-ridiculous contract is $13-16m per year average.

Any agent is going to use 2 franchise seasons as the starting point; that's gonna be $16 and $20 million. So you're at $18 million/season right there.

I know many don't trust him and think he's a regression candidate - he may well be. But if we don't tag him and he hits the market, his demand will be HUGE. He may be the most sought after defensive player in all of free agency. His agent knows that and will set his demands accordingly.

If we got him at $16 million in AAV, we'd be damn lucky. I don't see it as being likely but I can still hope...

[The Franchise]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Any agent is going to use 2 franchise seasons as the starting point; that's gonna be $16 and $20 million. So you're at $18 million/season right there.

I know many don't trust him and think he's a regression candidate - he may well be. But if we don't tag him and he hits the market, his demand will be HUGE. He may be the most sought after defensive player in all of free agency. His agent knows that and will set his demands accordingly.

If we got him at $16 million in AAV, we'd be damn lucky. I don't see it as being likely but I can still hope...

I know you talked about giving Ford an Ingram type deal with an uptick.

Something like 4 years and $70 million?

[Chargem]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Any agent is going to use 2 franchise seasons as the starting point; that's gonna be $16 and $20 million. So you're at $18 million/season right there.

I know many don't trust him and think he's a regression candidate - he may well be. But if we don't tag him and he hits the market, his demand will be HUGE. He may be the most sought after defensive player in all of free agency. His agent knows that and will set his demands accordingly.

If we got him at $16 million in AAV, we'd be damn lucky. I don't see it as being likely but I can still hope...

I know it's unlikely, but I keep trying to talk myself into the fact that comparisons with tags or other OLB contracts were based on multiple years of performance and Ford doesn't have that. Maybe you offer him $15m per year average now and say take that or risk the tag then maybe he takes the stability, or maybe for some reason he takes a marginal discount to stay in KC.

I would say though that DeMarcus Lawrence is the stand out edge rusher this off season, He's the guy going to get 18-20m AAV for sure

[O.city]

I'd like to see Smith get a little more run next offseason and preseason to see. It's so damn hard for rookies to make much of an impact when they have technique issues.

Give him an offseason and see what happens.

Same with Speaks, which sucks. I don't think he'll amount to much, but we'll see.

[Sassy Squatch]

Draft a CB and DL in the draft. Go and get Shane Ray on a hometown deal for depth.

[pugsnotdrugs19]

Having not read much of the thread, I really like Justin Hamilton’s potential in this DL rotation

[DJ's left nut]

Okay, looks like I've figured it out and messed w/ '18 for a single season of review.

In 2018 there were 84 UDFA rookies who graded out in AV (Pro football reference's composite measurement). They totalled 159 'points' and were led by...well of course you guessed it....Andrew Wylie and his 8. It's not a perfect analysis because Wylie was a rookie but was technically eligible for the 2017 draft. But in either event, he was a UDFA who went undrafted and thus could've been on anyone's roster.

In the 6th and 7th rounds there were 38 rookies who 'scored' and they totaled 67 'points'. If I include the 5th round that's another 29 scoring rookies and 52 points. So from the 2018 draft there were 67 rookies taken in rounds 5-7 who 'scored' via the AV system. They contributed a total of 119 points.

The UDFAs absolutely wreck those numbers.

Seriously, teams wildly under-utilize the UDFA pool and in so doing overvalue their picks in the 5th, 6th and 7th rounds. Punt those picks, use them to move up in the other rounds and simply take those roster spots and allocate them to the 'winners' of the an annual roster competition among a larger pool of UDFA players.

Here's the little stat machine that can figure this out if you want to do it over a number of years.

https://www.pro-football-reference.c...psl_finder.cgi

['Hamas' Jenkins]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Okay, looks like I've figured it out and messed w/ '18 for a single season of review.

In 2018 there were 84 UDFA rookies who graded out in AV (Pro football reference's composite measurement). They totalled 159 'points' and were led by...well of course you guessed it....Andrew Wylie and his 8. It's not a perfect analysis because Wylie was a rookie but was technically eligible for the 2017 draft. But in either event, he was a UDFA who went undrafted and thus could've been on anyone's roster.

In the 6th and 7th rounds there were 38 rookies who 'scored' and they totaled 67 'points'. If I include the 5th round that's another 29 scoring rookies and 52 points. So from the 2018 draft there were 67 rookies taken in rounds 5-7 who 'scored' via the AV system. They contributed a total of 119 points.

The UDFAs absolutely wreck those numbers.

Seriously, teams wildly under-utilize the UDFA pool and in so doing overvalue their picks in the 5th, 6th and 7th rounds. Punt those picks, use them to move up in the other rounds and simply take those roster spots and allocate them to the 'winners' of the an annual roster competition among a larger pool of UDFA players.

Here's the little stat machine that can figure this out if you want to do it over a number of years.

https://www.pro-football-reference.c...psl_finder.cgi

There were 84 UDFA who graded out. Teams signed an average of about 15 UDFAs. So 1/6 UDFA played enough to even be graded. In the 5th-7th round, there were 118 players taken, of which 67 graded out, roughly 57%.

That means your late round picks are 3.5 times more likely to provide value than an UDFA. That is definitely not worth punting on.

[Buehler445]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

I really really REALLY think the idea of getting anyone meaningful in free agency ought be just about summarily dismissed.

As has been noted, when we talk about our cap figure for next year that's not even including depth guys like Hamilton, Lucas and Butker who will all get a little bit of it. We're MUCH tighter against the cap than people are discussing if we actually get the extensions put together for guys like Hill and Jones. Common sense and long-term planning says that we really need to get those done and not enter a potential tag situation or end up letting them hit the market outright.

We absolutely have to take care of our own and now's the time to do that. Once that gets done, we're gonna be tight up against the cap and any discussion of guys like Landon Collins is just a complete non-starter unless you're willing to jettison some key part of our younger core or trade off Dee Ford.

The alternative is to simply say "**** it" and push the chips in for 2019. You tag Ford, you let Jones, Hill and Fuller play out their final years at a pittance and you get FAs with low first year figures knowing that their salaries will jump in 2020 and you're simply gonna lose 2, 3 or even all 4 of those guys. It's there. It's a possibility.

But man oh man does it strike me as foolish.

Yeah, the thing the "cap is going up" crew never takes into account is that if the dudes that need to walk walk, they're still going to have to be replaced. And those are going to be replaced. And in the cases of dudes like Nelson, it's going to be with a rookie or for more money.

But yeah, that thread I posted about paying dudes top tier contracts was ****ing eye opening. There are a ****load of dudes making WAAAAAY too much money. I still contend you need to look at it as production per unit salary cap. Ford is making a case. He's stayed healthy all year.

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

There were 84 UDFA who graded out. Teams signed an average of about 15 UDFAs. So 1/6 UDFA played enough to even be graded. In the 5th-7th round, there were 118 players taken, of which 67 graded out, roughly 57%.

That means your late round picks are 3.5 times more likely to provide value than an UDFA. That is definitely not worth punting on.

Yeah that didn't pass the sniff test. If you can get those guys in UDFA, take them with the pick. That's not to say I don't disagree with DJLN. I have 0 problems flipping a 5th or less to move up and increase the probability of your guys hitting.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

There were 84 UDFA who graded out. Teams signed an average of about 15 UDFAs. So 1/6 UDFA played enough to even be graded. In the 5th-7th round, there were 118 players taken, of which 67 graded out, roughly 57%.

That means your late round picks are 3.5 times more likely to provide value than an UDFA. That is definitely not worth punting on.

Raw numbers are more critical than ratios with UDFAs because you can just sift through them. You can bring in a slew of those guys; you cite the average but I'm saying that just being average in that regard is under-utilizing the process. That's precisely my point - the denominator can just be made large enough to wash out the ratio.

It's not that they're more likely to hit but rather that they're easier to throw numbers at. You can take your 3 picks in the 5th, 6th and 7th if you want. I'll take those 3 picks, bundle them into a 4th rounder (roughly equal 'draft chart value') and then use the remaining roster spots and practice time to go get UDFA's and sift through that pile to find someone that can be just as productive.

My 4th rounder and spare UDFAs is going to be more likely to contribute than your 5-6-7 rounders IF I'm willing to do the spadework of sifting through that pile and finding someone. And I know that's more difficult than ever given the limits on practice time but I think that's an area where an experienced, excellent coaching staff can be further leveraged to a team's advantage. I think our staff can/should be better at finding the gems in those pools than most and with that being the case, I think we should be more aggressive in pursuing those kinds of guys.

[WilliamTheIrish]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

The UDFAs absolutely wreck those numbers.

Seriously, teams wildly under-utilize the UDFA pool and in so doing overvalue their picks in the 5th, 6th and 7th rounds. Punt those picks, use them to move up in the other rounds and simply take those roster spots and allocate them to the 'winners' of the an annual roster competition among a larger pool of UDFA players.

Here's the little stat machine that can figure this out if you want to do it over a number of years.

https://www.pro-football-reference.c...psl_finder.cgi

This thinking is very similar to the Jimmy Johnson approach that built the Cowboy dynasty. And how they found Leon Lett.

[Chris Meck]

Originally Posted by WilliamTheIrish

This thinking is very similar to the Jimmy Johnson approach that built the Cowboy dynasty. And how they found Leon Lett.

The Herschel Walker trade built the Cowboys dynasty.