***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[Donger]

Originally Posted by chiefzilla999

What's the alternative?

At the minimum, everyone masking up and practicing social distancing to try to drive the R0 below 1. We had that alternative and "we" chose not to follow it. This is the result.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by lewdog

It’s too early to tell if herd immunity will actually work based on the immunology studies, which are too early to draw concrete conclusions from. There’s a current chance that you don’t gain permanent immunity once you’ve had this virus based on current data.

And we'd be doing it without a vaccine. 60% of the population is almost 200,000,000 cases. We don't want to do that with a CFR of ~.4 or .5%

[O.city]

Originally Posted by Donger

And we'd be doing it without a vaccine. 60% of the population is almost 200,000,000 cases. We don't want to do that with a CFR of ~.4 or .5%

I don't think it'll end up needing 60% to get there. With how quickly the curves have come down in hard hit areas, it's probably less.

With things popping up now showing some have some previous immunity, it'll lower everything. Hopefully at least.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by O.city

I don't think it'll end up needing 60% to get there. With how quickly the curves have come down in hard hit areas, it's probably less.

With things popping up now showing some have some previous immunity, it'll lower everything. Hopefully at least.

What's the highest percentage we've seen in those hard hit areas? Last I saw, even NYC was something in the 12% range.

[kgrund]

Originally Posted by O.city

I don't think it'll end up needing 60% to get there. With how quickly the curves have come down in hard hit areas, it's probably less.

With things popping up now showing some have some previous immunity, it'll lower everything. Hopefully at least.

I have read that herd immunity could be as low as 10%-20% when the population is not viewed as totally homogeneous. The population would not be considered homogeneous due to the the variation between individuals in their susceptibility to infection and their propensity to infect others. I believe this speaks to your point.

[Kidd Lex]

Originally Posted by kgrund

I have read that herd immunity could be as low as 10%-20% when the population is not viewed as totally homogeneous. The population would not be considered homogeneous due to the the variation between individuals in their susceptibility to infection and their propensity to infect others. I believe this speaks to your point.

It’s possible Herd Immunity is already happening in Sweden. Once the virus burns through the population it seems to largely burn out. In the US that only really happened in most places after reopening, so we are in the thick of things now in the South and California and looking like the Midwest is heading there too. Only way places like Sweden and New York peaked so hard and then calmed down is a much lower herd immunity rate then 60% with a fairly large amount of the population having some natural immunity to Covid-19 imo.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bus...d-2020-7%3Famp

[Eleazar]

Originally Posted by Kidd Lex

It’s possible Herd Immunity is already happening in Sweden. Once the virus burns through the population it seems to largely burn out. In the US that only really happened in most places after reopening, so we are in the thick of things now in the South and California and looking like the Midwest is heading there too. Only way places like Sweden and New York peaked so hard and then calmed down is a much lower herd immunity rate then 60% with a fairly large amount of the population having some natural immunity to Covid-19 imo.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bus...d-2020-7%3Famp

Yeah, no way to know how many people are truly susceptible to it, and this could vary widely across different countries, different population centers in the same country, ethnic groups... who knows

[RunKC]

Ravens will only have 20% fan attendance. That is a huge advantage for us when we go there this Fall

2020 Ravens season tickets will be deferred to 2021.

If permitted under state and local government regulations to have fans attend games in 2020, a reduced seating capacity at M&T Bank Stadium will be in place of fewer than 14,000 seats per game.

��: https://t.co/Y83BkJUYDV pic.twitter.com/FN9jWTyTea

— Baltimore Ravens (@Ravens) July 8, 2020

[Kidd Lex]

Originally Posted by Eleazar

Yeah, no way to know how many people are truly susceptible to it, and this could vary widely across different countries, different population centers in the same country, ethnic groups... who knows

Very true, especially when multiple studies have shown blood types to have different infection rates and disease outcomes. Good time to be blood type O.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by kgrund

I have read that herd immunity could be as low as 10%-20% when the population is not viewed as totally homogeneous. The population would not be considered homogeneous due to the the variation between individuals in their susceptibility to infection and their propensity to infect others. I believe this speaks to your point.

Originally Posted by Kidd Lex

It’s possible Herd Immunity is already happening in Sweden. Once the virus burns through the population it seems to largely burn out. In the US that only really happened in most places after reopening, so we are in the thick of things now in the South and California and looking like the Midwest is heading there too. Only way places like Sweden and New York peaked so hard and then calmed down is a much lower herd immunity rate then 60% with a fairly large amount of the population having some natural immunity to Covid-19 imo.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bus...d-2020-7%3Famp

If it is truly 60%, you probably wouldn't have the down turns in places like Sweden and NY that you do.

There's something else goin on there. HI won't be the same everywhere either. It may be more or less in different places.

[MahomesMagic]

Once the deaths hit a peak and begin dropping it means herd immunity is building. Sweden is all set now as their deaths are now near 0 daily.

Traditionally, coronaviruses hit saturation at about 25% and then stop.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by MahomesMagic

Once the deaths hit a peak and begin dropping it means herd immunity is building. Sweden is all set now as their deaths are now near 0 daily.

No, it doesn't mean that.

Originally Posted by MahomesMagic

Traditionally, coronaviruses hit saturation at about 25% and then stop.

Based on which precedents?

[O.city]

That would be nice. If that's the case, some of these hotspot areas should start rolling over pretty soon.

[Donger]

https://www.fda.gov/drugs/drug-safet...izers-methanol

Updated list of hand sanitizers containing wood alcohol/methanol.

[stumppy]

Originally Posted by MahomesMagic

Once the deaths hit a peak and begin dropping it means herd immunity is building. Sweden is all set now as their deaths are now near 0 daily.

Traditionally, coronaviruses hit saturation at about 25% and then stop.