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Old 02-03-2019, 08:08 PM  
kccrow kccrow is offline
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Mock Offseason 2/3/19

I went with not cutting Berry in this rendition just to see where things could stand and appease Mr. DJ for a little while .

The Chiefs fire Bob Sutton in the offseason and hire Steve Spagnuolo, a former Reid assistant and Jim Johnson protege, as defensive coordinator. (I hit on both of these so I guess now it's time to hone the rest in...).

Chiefs beginning cap space of $42,967,636 using estimate of $190,000,000 salary cap per OTC (NFL stated range of $187.0 to 191.1 million).

Extensions

WR Tyreek Hill: It's imperative to lock up the team's most dynamic player long-term and give Mahomes a weapon for the foreseeable future. Hill must be retained and he won't get cheaper.
5 years/$95.0m contract extension with $65m in guarantees, $42m guaranteed at signing, and $20m signing bonus. Estimated Cap Hits 2019: 6.13 2020: 18.75 2021: 19.25 2022: 19.75 2023: 18.25 2024: 15.00
Notes: Hill will earn the NFL Proven Performance Escalator for the last year of his rookie deal which means his base salary will increase to the Right of First Refusal tender amount. That amount was $1.907 million in 2018 and increases by the percentage the cap increases with a minimum of 5% and a maximum of 10%. The NFL has stated a cap range between $187.0 and $191.1 million, which means Tyreek's 2019 salary will be between $2.012 and $2.056 million. I will err on the high side at 2.056 for tenders and PPEs.

DL Chris Jones: I've been preaching the same thing Andy Reid mentioned not too long ago: the quickest route to the QB is a straight line and having defensive lineman that can get after them up the middle is better than good edge rushers in today's NFL that sees QBs get the ball out quicker than ever. Jones has stepped up his game considerably and we should project that to continue.
5 years, $81.0m contract extension with $40.0m guaranteed at signing including $20.0m signing bonus. Estimated Cap Hits 2019: 5.98 2020: 13.00 2021: 15.00 2022: 16.00 2023: 17.00 2024: 16.00

Note: These moves and Tyreek's performance escalator reduce 2019 cap space by $9.336m.

Tags/Tenders
FS Jordan Lucas: RFA Original Round Tender estimated $2.05m (Hoping KC reaches an extension agreement to lower the hit)
DL Justin Hamilton: ERFA Tender estimated $570k + $30k bonus
PK Harrison Butker: ERFA Tender estimated $570k + $30k bonus
WR Markus Kemp: ERFA Tender estimated $570k + $30k bonus
WR Gehrig Deiter: ERFA Tender estimated $570k + $30k bonus


Cuts

SS Daniel Sorensen: Sorensen hasn't been much of an asset since signing his extension, routinely missing tackles and being subpar in coverage assignments. The Chiefs ailments in the back end are extensive and require re-tooling. The move frees up an additional $2.693m in cap space in 2019 and $4.75m in 2020 with dead money of $2.0m in 2019.

FA Acquisitions

DE Preston Smith (WAS): Smith is a very solid run defender and gets a ton of pressure on the QB despite less than eye-popping sack totals. He's the type of edge player this team needs on the outside to help stop the bleeding in the run game. He shouldn't command the type of contract that Dee Ford will with his gaudy sack total that will make some GM's go gaga. I think a Whitney Mercilus-type deal taken to current cap dollars is his value.
4 years, $35.00m with $7.00m signing bonus and $13.40m fully guaranteed. Estimated Cap Hits 2019: 8.25 2020: 8.25 2021 8.75 2022: 9.75

CB Ronald Darby (PHI): Darby is a bit of a gamble coming off an ACL injury, but if he's on track in March he could still see a pay day similar to Allen Robinson. I'm going to go all out here and sign him to a lucrative deal that has some protections in it should the Chiefs need to release him after one season. He's a far better corner than anyone on this board seems to want to admit and is becoming one of the better all-around corners in the NFL, plus he's still only 25 with his prime ahead of him.
5 years/$65.5m with $16.5m guaranteed, a $10.5m signing bonus, and $14.25m in potential additional guarantees including roster bonuses of $3.0m in 2020 and $4.0m in 2021 as well as a salary guarantee of $7.25m in 2020 if he's on the roster the 5th day of those respective league years. Estimated Cap Hits 2019: 8.25 2020: 12.50 2021: 13.75 2022: 14.75 2023: 16.25

TE Maxx Williams (BAL): Williams has had alot of injuries throughout his career but he's still extremely young and has flashed what made him a high round pick. He'd make an excellent number two type with solid hands, route running, and blocking ability.
3 years/$9.0m with $1.5m signing bonus, and $1.0m roster bonuses in 2020 and 2021 if he's on the roster the 5th day of the new league year. Estimated Cap Hits 2019: 2.00 2020: 3.25 2021: 3.75

RB T.J. Yeldon (JAX): Yeldon is a nice complimentary back that really excels in the passing game and could be a sure-fire weapon under Andy Reid, especially given his penchant for using backs on screens and down the field. Yeldon may look for a starting gig but if there are no takers, he's going to have plenty of options to be part of a committee once again and there may not be a better fit for him.
2 years/$4.5m with $1.4m signing bonus and $1.9m guaranteed. Estimated Cap Hits 2019: 1.75 2020: 2.75

SS Andrew Adams (TB): I've been high on Adams since he left UConn and every time he gets a shot to play he does well. He doesn't have many starts with only 4 in each of the past two seasons, but he'd be a nice cheap safety to bring in and compete for a starting gig and at worst should be solid depth.
2 years/$4.0m with $1.0m signing bonus and $1.5m guaranteed. Estimated Cap Hits 2019: 1.80 2020: 2.20

All PS on Minimal Deals that likely don't affect Top-51.

Let Walk

DE Allen Bailey, CB Orlando Scandrick, TE Demetrius Harris, FS Josh Shaw, RB Spencer Ware, OC Mitch Morse, FS Ron Parker, WR De'Anthony Thomas, OLB Frank Zombo, CB Steven Nelson, ILB Terrence Smith, WR Chris Conley, FB Anthony Sherman

Players Already Signed Notes & Guesstimates
Damien Williams: OTC released details of the Williams extension, noting that it was 2 years, 5.1m with cap hits of 1.73 and 2.83 million in 2019 and 2020 respectively.

Austin Reiter: The extension for Reiter was released a couple weeks back and for all intensive purposes has cap hits of 1.46 and 2.76 million in 2019 and 2020 respectively.

Trades

The Chiefs franchise tag Dee Ford at the onset of free agency, then trade him and their 2nd round pick acquired from the Los Angeles Rams (Peters) to the Green Bay Packers for a 2019 1st #30 (from Saints) and 2019 4th ~118 (from Redskins).

Just a note here that I think KC is going to do something aside from just letting Ford walk. They should be able to get compensation higher than a late 3rd with a simple tag and trade. I recall when KC franchised Jared Allen then flipped him for a 1st and two 3rds. I don't think Ford commands that type of compensation, but he's certainly worth a mid-2nd and 4th, which is what my trade proposition essentially is.

Cap Estimate Net of Transactions: 4.5m

Draft

Chiefs have a projected 6th round compensatory selection for Bennie Logan.

1. LB Mack Wilson, Alabama (6'1" 240)
1. FS Nassir Adderley, Delaware (6'0" 195) [f/GB - Ford]
2. CB Julian Love, Notre Dame (5'11" 190)
3. TE Josh Oliver, San Jose State (6'5" 250)
4. WR Gary Jennings Jr., West Virginia (6'1" 215) [f/GB - Ford]
5. DT Cortez Broughton, Cincinnati (6'2" 290)
6. LB Ryan Connelly, Wisconsin (6'2" 240)
6. FS Kareem Orr, Chattanooga (5'11" 195) [Comp - Logan]
7. WR Tony Brooks-James, Oregon (was RB) (5'9" 180) [f/SF - Streater]


Roster (Not representative of 53)

QB: Patrick Mahomes, Chad Henne, Chase Litton
RB: Damien Williams, T.J. Yeldon, Darrel Williams
FB: UDFA or some vet min guy
TE: Travis Kelce, Maxx Williams, Josh Oliver
WR: Tyreek Hill, Sammy Watkins, Demarcus Robinson, Gary Jennings Jr., Byron Pringle, Tony Brooks-James, Marcus Kemp, Gehrig Deiter
OT: Eric Fisher, Mitchell Schwartz
OG: Laurent Duvernay-Tardif, Andrew Wylie, Cameron Erving (OC), Ryan Hunter, Khalil McKenzie
OC: Austin Reiter, Jimmy Murray
DE: Justin Houston, Preston Smith, Breeland Speaks, Tanoh Kpassagnon, Rob McCray
DT: Chris Jones, Derrick Nnadi, Xavier Williams, Cortez Broughton, Justin Hamilton
LB: Anthony Hitchens, Mack Wilson, Dorian O'Daniel, Ben Niemann, Reggie Ragland, Ryan Connelly
CB: Ronald Darby, Kendall Fuller, Julian Love, Charvarius Ward, Tremon Smith, D'Montre Wade
SS: Eric Berry, Andrew Adams, Armani Watts
FS: Nassir Adderley, Jordan Lucas, Kareem Orr, Eric Murray
ST: Harrison Butker, Dustin Colquitt, James Winchester
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Old 02-04-2019, 03:18 PM   #16
ntexascardfan ntexascardfan is offline
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If we're going to fix the secondary lets really fix the secondary.

Packing our two firsts could get us borderline top ten according to the NFL draft value chart.

Trade those up to a Green Bay or a Cinci type team and get Greedy. (who ranges anywhere from top 5 to 18-19 in drafts I've seen, I'm simply averaging out his mock values)

Take the money you want to give Darby and go get Landon Collins

Fuller/Greedy
Berry/Collins

I feel like that's a secondary we could all live with.
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Old 02-04-2019, 04:00 PM   #17
ntexascardfan ntexascardfan is offline
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I'd also be interested in the odd draft of tag + trade Ford, move Houston to the LEO and sign Anthony Barr.
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Old 02-04-2019, 04:16 PM   #18
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I quickly threw together a spreadsheet that lets you plug salaries into the Chiefs depth chart to show you the cap total, and positional percentage of cap. I used the players from the depth chart in the OP. It would let you guys mess around offline if that is an issue for some.

However, the xls file is too large to upload... so that blows.
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Old 02-04-2019, 04:21 PM   #19
DJ's left nut DJ's left nut is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ntexascardfan View Post
If we're going to fix the secondary lets really fix the secondary.

Packing our two firsts could get us borderline top ten according to the NFL draft value chart.

Trade those up to a Green Bay or a Cinci type team and get Greedy. (who ranges anywhere from top 5 to 18-19 in drafts I've seen, I'm simply averaging out his mock values)

Take the money you want to give Darby and go get Landon Collins

Fuller/Greedy
Berry/Collins

I feel like that's a secondary we could all live with.
I don't think Greedy's even that good, man. There's no damn way I'd crater the top of the draft to get him instead of Baker. I think as more and more teams start to dig into him, he's going to slide and may not even be the #1 corner when all is said and done.

He just looks a little oversized and stiff to be a true shutdown CB these days. I know that's counter-intuitive and maybe the combine will make me look stupid, but he just doesn't look as fluid as I thought he would. It's probably just that he's so damn long that he looks more awkward than he is.

I'm just not going to give up that kind of capital to get him (I dunno where you got the 'two firsts' but I presume we're using our original 1st and both our 2nds to move up into the top 10 in your scenario).
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Old 02-04-2019, 04:24 PM   #20
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Originally Posted by DJ's left nut View Post
I don't think Greedy's even that good, man. There's no damn way I'd crater the top of the draft to get him instead of Baker. I think as more and more teams start to dig into him, he's going to slide and may not even be the #1 corner when all is said and done.

He just looks a little oversized and stiff to be a true shutdown CB these days. I know that's counter-intuitive and maybe the combine will make me look stupid, but he just doesn't look as fluid as I thought he would. It's probably just that he's so damn long that he looks more awkward than he is.

I'm just not going to give up that kind of capital to get him (I dunno where you got the 'two firsts' but I presume we're using our original 1st and both our 2nds to move up into the top 10 in your scenario).
If you're gonna trade that much, just go get Ramsey who you know is a legit #1.
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Old 02-04-2019, 04:57 PM   #21
ntexascardfan ntexascardfan is offline
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If you're gonna trade that much, just go get Ramsey who you know is a legit #1.
We traded away an attitude problem in Peterson and you want to bring in a toxic player in Ramsey?
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Old 02-04-2019, 05:00 PM   #22
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We traded away an attitude problem in Peterson and you want to bring in a toxic player in Ramsey?
Just out of curiosity - how much digging have you done on Williams?

You don't have to go too far to find people asking about his love of football, his motor, his compete level.

Now I'm not saying it's fair to discount him because of those reports - they happen all the time. But if you're going to refer to Marcus Peters as an attitude problem, well Greedy has a few of those same red flags on his resume. The words 'business decisions' pop up a little more often than you'd like to see.
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Old 02-04-2019, 05:13 PM   #23
ntexascardfan ntexascardfan is offline
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Just out of curiosity - how much digging have you done on Williams?

You don't have to go too far to find people asking about his love of football, his motor, his compete level.

Now I'm not saying it's fair to discount him because of those reports - they happen all the time. But if you're going to refer to Marcus Peters as an attitude problem, well Greedy has a few of those same red flags on his resume. The words 'business decisions' pop up a little more often than you'd like to see.
There's a difference between that and being absolutely toxic in a locker room.

There are plenty of players in the NFL who play as a business decision and are still good players and great team mates.

Give me those guys all day over the antics Ramsey pulled with the Jags this season.

Ramsey also went from the second rated corner to last year being the thirty fourth ranked. He seems to have issues with want to at times as well.
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Old 02-04-2019, 06:34 PM   #24
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I think secondary will be targeted early in the draft regardless - the FA crop is limited and artificial salary bumps will occur because of it. I like the investment in LB/Safety early, but still don’t see the Chiefs getting a trade offer of value for Ford, especially not a first.

The Chiefs did nothing to boost the #2 TE position last offseason, so I’d be shocked if there was a significant investment this offseason. The FA options are garbage. The draft could be where it is addressed but likely on Day 3. I like Oliver but he’s likely nabbed by the middle of Round 2. Julian Love is a solid slot corner, but the roster needs outside corners. I like the Jennings and Orr picks and they realistically slot to where you have them.
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Old 02-04-2019, 11:51 PM   #25
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I actually very much disagree about Love being a slot corner. He's matched up against a lot of top-notch wide receivers and shut them down.

The CB market in FA is alot of shit with few decent one-year rentals outside of Darby. If he's healthy, he's getting a big deal. Other than him, there's only really 2 CBs I'd consider signing and those are Darqueze Dennard and Bashaud Breeland (although I think he signs whatever GB offers him). With Dennard, it'd have to be a smaller deal, maybe 3 for 24 as a max and that's pushing it as I see him as a better player from the slot.
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Old 02-05-2019, 09:28 AM   #26
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I actually very much disagree about Love being a slot corner. He's matched up against a lot of top-notch wide receivers and shut them down.

The CB market in FA is alot of shit with few decent one-year rentals outside of Darby. If he's healthy, he's getting a big deal. Other than him, there's only really 2 CBs I'd consider signing and those are Darqueze Dennard and Bashaud Breeland (although I think he signs whatever GB offers him). With Dennard, it'd have to be a smaller deal, maybe 3 for 24 as a max and that's pushing it as I see him as a better player from the slot.
I’d do all the above. Sign a mid tier vet, draft a couple etc.
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Old 02-10-2019, 03:09 PM   #27
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I really like this one. I think it's pretty realistic in the sense that the Chiefs keep Berry and Houston and also shows that they can get a lot done on both sides of the ball, I really like adding RB/TE in free agency and the drafting for defense. You add at all levels of the defense too which I think was definitely needed.

Once you've signed a free agent TE, I'd maybe consider WR instead in the third if a guy I liked dropped there.

A note on the cap though, OTC states that the cap is $28m for the Chiefs but it looks like they have already factored in various escalators etc that I'm not sure if you factored in after the starting figure of $42.9m you quote. Where did this figure come from?
So, I think I figured out where some the money went to.

First off, there are 4 players that OTC has upgraded the salary on from their base to $2.0m due to PPE. Those players are Kendall Fuller, Eric Murray, Tyreek Hill, and Demarcus Robinson. The net increase of these salaries is $5,061,500.

There are also what looks to be about 13 reserves/futures contracts added with 10 of them counting against the cap which increases the net about $4,995,000.

Between these two items, that affects the Chiefs cap $10,016,500.

The Reiter and Williams contracts Add a $3,160,416 to bring the total to $13,176,916.

Still puts me off roughly $3.3 million that I can't really account for unless there are more reserve contracts I'm not seeing. Otherwise, there could be a player or two that got bonuses and converted future unlikely to be earned to likely. No idea really. It's not the draft allowance that's in there. I'll just go forward with the new number and not account for these things now.
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Old 02-11-2019, 10:53 PM   #28
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I think the penn st corner is the best fit now that we the DC is Spags. If he runs well, I wouldn't object to using the 1 on him.
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Old 02-11-2019, 11:56 PM   #29
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I think the penn st corner is the best fit now that we the DC is Spags. If he runs well, I wouldn't object to using the 1 on him.
I like him the best out of the guys we have a realistic shot at
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Old 02-15-2019, 04:41 PM   #30
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I like him the best out of the guys we have a realistic shot at

I like him too. and Murphy, and Baker. Should have at least one shot at all three, really. Maybe 2.
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Chris Meck is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.Chris Meck is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.Chris Meck is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.Chris Meck is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.Chris Meck is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.Chris Meck is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.Chris Meck is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.Chris Meck is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.Chris Meck is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.Chris Meck is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.Chris Meck is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.
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