Investing megathread extravaganza

[DaFace]

A place to talk about investing stuff.

[lewdog]

Originally Posted by petegz28

Do some research on dividend paying stocks vs. non-dividend paying stocks in a bear market. You will have your answer.

Won’t sniff the dividends.

[Strongside]

Pre-market is looking promising this morning. Looking like a lot of folks decided to jump back in at Yesterdays levels.

[Hog's Gone Fishin]

Drugmaker Moderna has shipped its first batch of a possible coronavirus vaccine for humans to government researchers for testing.

Shares of the biotech company soared early Tuesday, a day after the company said it sent vials to the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases for early-stage testing in the United States.

More than 80,000 people have been infected globally from the viral outbreak that began late last year in China. A total of 35 cases have been reported in the United States.

More than 2,600 people have died from the virus in mainland China, including one U.S. citizen.

Shares of Cambridge, Massachusetts-based Moderna Inc. jumped nearly 16%, or $2.92, to $21.51 in premarket trading.

The stock started trading in late 2018 and set an all-time high price of $29.79 last April, according to FactSet.

[RunKC]

Bad feeling the coronavirus is gonna hurt the market for awhile. This could be a bad month long stretch. Definitely buying as soon as it starts to clear

[Rain Man]

Originally Posted by Hog's Gone Fishin

Drugmaker Moderna has shipped its first batch of a possible coronavirus vaccine for humans to government researchers for testing.

Shares of the biotech company soared early Tuesday, a day after the company said it sent vials to the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases for early-stage testing in the United States.

More than 80,000 people have been infected globally from the viral outbreak that began late last year in China. A total of 35 cases have been reported in the United States.

More than 2,600 people have died from the virus in mainland China, including one U.S. citizen.

Shares of Cambridge, Massachusetts-based Moderna Inc. jumped nearly 16%, or $2.92, to $21.51 in premarket trading.

The stock started trading in late 2018 and set an all-time high price of $29.79 last April, according to FactSet.

I'm in. It's still 20 percent below its high, and if they get it right, I'll be rich. Or at least upper middle class.

[TwistedChief]

Originally Posted by RunKC

Bad feeling the coronavirus is gonna hurt the market for awhile. This could be a bad month long stretch. Definitely buying as soon as it starts to clear

I am no expert in equity space, but I very much think the situation is going to get meaningfully worse and feel there's better than a coin flip's chance that there's a major panic in the US (read: store shelves empty, etc) over the next few months. I'm hardly a 'Chicken Little' in these situations, but I think the cat is out of the bag in terms of global containment. And the asymptomatic nature of transmission is just a really dangerous feature that makes it tricky for governments to navigate.

I also think it's possible/likely this lingers over the balance of the year and is a major factor in the election. That isn't good for Trump and probably would play into the hands of a candidate like Sanders who is advocating for universal health care at a time when a lot of people are sick and worried about the cost of coverage. And that wouldn't be good for equity markets either.

I very much hope that I'm wrong. Feel free to bump in a year when Trump is president, the virus has been forgotten, and SPX is 4000.

EDIT: Just wanted to add that markets have already done a lot of work in this direction. My speciality is fixed income and today we briefly reached the lowest 10y Treasury yield in history. Relatedly, the near-term (say, 3-6m) Fed rate path is priced aggressively but probably pretty fairly given the risks I laid out above. So it’s entirely possible that the market has spent the last two days waking up to this situation and now can find some time to consolidate and see if the worst fears actually realize.

[lewdog]

Only move I’ve made in drop is buying call options on Silver (SLV) today, 4 months out.

[Buehler445]

Originally Posted by lewdog

Only move I’ve made in drop is buying call options on Silver (SLV) today, 4 months out.

The **** you do that for?

[lewdog]

Originally Posted by Buehler445

The **** you do that for?

Hedging with commodities in a down turn. It’s not if but when investors move money to them when stocks go down. Looking to close option for profit, never owning shares though.

[Shiver Me Timbers]

Originally Posted by lewdog

Hedging with commodities in a down turn. It’s not if but when investors move money to them when stocks go down. Looking to close option for profit, never owning shares though.

Why not rice?

[Discuss Thrower]

Originally Posted by lewdog

Hedging with commodities in a down turn. It’s not if but when investors move money to them when stocks go down. Looking to close option for profit, never owning shares though.

If it gets to that point the world as we know it is over anyway.

[Buehler445]

Originally Posted by lewdog

Hedging with commodities in a down turn. It’s not if but when investors move money to them when stocks go down. Looking to close option for profit, never owning shares though.

You don’t own shares of a commodity, you own a contract. Like a deliverable production contract. It’s not. But that’s what you’re doing. Looks like silver is 5000 ounces. But there are minis available.

As a dude that’s lost a mountain of money hedging, but if you’re certain that investors will move their money there within 4 months, just buy the damn contract. It won’t crater bad enough for your margin calls to get out of hand. Thing is if you’re right, you’ll get in the neighborhood of half the money. If it is indeed an “when not if” thing in the next 4 months, just do it dude. Options suck.

[lewdog]

Originally Posted by Buehler445

You don’t own shares of a commodity, you own a contract. Like a deliverable production contract. It’s not. But that’s what you’re doing. Looks like silver is 5000 ounces. But there are minis available.

As a dude that’s lost a mountain of money hedging, but if you’re certain that investors will move their money there within 4 months, just buy the damn contract. It won’t crater bad enough for your margin calls to get out of hand. Thing is if you’re right, you’ll get in the neighborhood of half the money. If it is indeed an “when not if” thing in the next 4 months, just do it dude. Options suck.

Small hedge. Basically only play I want to make until market stabilizes.

I know what owning a contract is.

I disagree. Im looking to profit without having to expense large positions of capital to do so. I’m not greedy with my call options. I look for a spike and sell to close position for profit. Just did it with SLV in early February for a $250 profit in a few weeks.

I’ve closed 80% of the calls I buy for profit as I don’t buy tons of really short term calls and buy many close to in the money. I’ll pay the premium for increased duration and close them on spikes

[Fat Elvis]

Originally Posted by TwistedChief

I am no expert in equity space, but I very much think the situation is going to get meaningfully worse and feel there's better than a coin flip's chance that there's a major panic in the US (read: store shelves empty, etc) over the next few months. I'm hardly a 'Chicken Little' in these situations, but I think the cat is out of the bag in terms of global containment. And the asymptomatic nature of transmission is just a really dangerous feature that makes it tricky for governments to navigate.

I also think it's possible/likely this lingers over the balance of the year and is a major factor in the election. That isn't good for Trump and probably would play into the hands of a candidate like Sanders who is advocating for universal health care at a time when a lot of people are sick and worried about the cost of coverage. And that wouldn't be good for equity markets either.

I very much hope that I'm wrong. Feel free to bump in a year when Trump is president, the virus has been forgotten, and SPX is 4000.

EDIT: Just wanted to add that markets have already done a lot of work in this direction. My speciality is fixed income and today we briefly reached the lowest 10y Treasury yield in history. Relatedly, the near-term (say, 3-6m) Fed rate path is priced aggressively but probably pretty fairly given the risks I laid out above. So it’s entirely possible that the market has spent the last two days waking up to this situation and now can find some time to consolidate and see if the worst fears actually realize.

CDC came out today and said to expect this to be "bad."

[Buehler445]

Originally Posted by lewdog

Small hedge. Basically only play I want to make until market stabilizes.

I know what owning a contract is.

I disagree. Im looking to profit without having to expense large positions of capital to do so. I’m not greedy with my call options. I look for a spike and sell to close position for profit. Just did it with SLV in early February for a $250 profit in a few weeks.

I’ve closed 80% of the calls I buy for profit as I don’t buy tons of really short term calls and buy many close to in the money. I’ll pay the premium for increased duration and close them on spikes

If they’re close to the money they’re expensive. And they’re still on contract sized options, right?

But if it really is a when not if thing and your timeframe is 4 months, there shouldn’t be a ton of capital outlay. You can buy positions on margin. That’s why it’s called a margin call when you’re on it.