***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[petegz28]

See, it's this kind of shit that makes people want to say "enough of this crap". Either you're going to contact trace or you aren't. It's hard to take this shit seriously when politics seems to always provide excuses one way or the other

"Contract tracers" in NYC have been "instructed" not to ask people if they've attended recent protests. Which will of course limit our understanding of how much these mass gatherings contributed to virus spread. Probably by design: they don't WANT to knowhttps://t.co/LfbAp9LfMs

— Michael Tracey (@mtracey) June 15, 2020

[DaFace]

Originally Posted by petegz28

See, it's this kind of shit that makes people want to say "enough of this crap". Either you're going to contact trace or you aren't. It's hard to take this shit seriously when politics seems to always provide excuses one way or the other

"Contract tracers" in NYC have been "instructed" not to ask people if they've attended recent protests. Which will of course limit our understanding of how much these mass gatherings contributed to virus spread. Probably by design: they don't WANT to knowhttps://t.co/LfbAp9LfMs

— Michael Tracey (@mtracey) June 15, 2020

Did you read the article? It's not that they're ignoring the possibility that people have been to protests, they're just not calling it out specifically any more than they're asking people if they've been to a grocery store. It's open-ended vs. closed-ended.

[dlphg9]

Originally Posted by petegz28

People didn't mind using NY in their arguments when NY was inflating the numbers. Why should we grant such an exception now?

Who ever said NY wasn't inflating the numbers?

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by DaFace

Did you read the article? It's not that they're ignoring the possibility that people have been to protests, they're just not calling it out specifically any more than they're asking people if they've been to a grocery store. It's open-ended vs. closed-ended.

“No person will be asked proactively if they attended a protest,” Avery Cohen, a spokesperson for de Blasio, wrote in an emailed response to questions by THE CITY.

Instead, test-and-trace workers ask COVID-positive individuals general questions to help them “recall ‘contacts’ and individuals they may have exposed,” Cohen said. Among the initial questions: “Do you live with anyone in your home?”

I mean are we trying to contact trace or not? "Were you are a protest surrounded by literally 1,000's of other people?" is a very relevant ****ing question.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by dlphg9

Who ever said NY wasn't inflating the numbers?

Context.....read what was said before you reply.

NY's numbers were significantly higher than the rest of the country thus inflating the numbers for the entire country. Mecca is arguing the converse.

[DaFace]

Originally Posted by petegz28

I mean are we trying to contact trace or not? "Were you are a protest surrounded by literally 1,000's of other people?" is a very relevant ****ing question.

I don't have my box of crayons today. Sorry.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by DaFace

I don't have my box of crayons today. Sorry.

Whatever......

[Donger]

https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/15/polit...ort/index.html

(CNN)New numbers released by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention offer a comprehensive picture of who in the United States has been diagnosed with Covid-19 and how they fared.

The latest figures confirm that older people, minorities and those with preexisting health conditions are at the highest risk of death.

There was a total of 1,761,503 cases of Covid-19 and 103,700 related deaths in the country between January 22 (when the first case was confirmed) and May 30, according to the surveillance report, published in the CDC's Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report. The data come from local, state and federal sources and is consistent with those reported through the Johns Hopkins University Coronavirus Resource Center.

Overall, 184,673 (14%) patients were hospitalized, 29,837 (2%) were admitted to an intensive care unit (ICU), and 71,116 (5%) died. Hospitalizations are six times higher and deaths are 12 times higher among those who reported underlying conditions. The most common underlying conditions were cardiovascular disease (32%), diabetes (30%) and chronic lung disease (18%).

[TLO]

Originally Posted by Donger

https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/15/polit...ort/index.html

(CNN)New numbers released by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention offer a comprehensive picture of who in the United States has been diagnosed with Covid-19 and how they fared.

The latest figures confirm that older people, minorities and those with preexisting health conditions are at the highest risk of death.

There was a total of 1,761,503 cases of Covid-19 and 103,700 related deaths in the country between January 22 (when the first case was confirmed) and May 30, according to the surveillance report, published in the CDC's Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report. The data come from local, state and federal sources and is consistent with those reported through the Johns Hopkins University Coronavirus Resource Center.

Overall, 184,673 (14%) patients were hospitalized, 29,837 (2%) were admitted to an intensive care unit (ICU), and 71,116 (5%) died. Hospitalizations are six times higher and deaths are 12 times higher among those who reported underlying conditions. The most common underlying conditions were cardiovascular disease (32%), diabetes (30%) and chronic lung disease (18%).

Maybe I'm blind but is the actual CDC report available somewhere to read?

[Donger]

Originally Posted by TLO

Maybe I'm blind but is the actual CDC report available somewhere to read?

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/...cid=mm6924e2_w

[dlphg9]

Originally Posted by petegz28

No person will be asked proactively if they attended a protest,” Avery Cohen, a spokesperson for de Blasio, wrote in an emailed response to questions by THE CITY.

Instead, test-and-trace workers ask COVID-positive individuals general questions to help them “recall ‘contacts’ and individuals they may have exposed,” Cohen said. Among the initial questions: “Do you live with anyone in your home?”

I mean are we trying to contact trace or not? "Were you are a protest surrounded by literally 1,000's of other people?" is a very relevant ****ing question.

Just because they're not going in and asking every single person if they were at a protest doesn't mean they won't ask questions that will lead into the patient saying they were at a protest.

Instead of asking "were you involved in any protests" they ask "can you recall a time you were around a large group of people". Both questions accomplish the same thing, but you have to find something to bitch about.

[Pants]

Someone brought the crayons out for pete.

[Chief Pagan]

Originally Posted by Donger

Where was it not necessary?

If the country had done a better job of rolling out testing, we might have been able to answer that.

[Chief Pagan]

Originally Posted by BigCatDaddy

My last post for a bit then you can tune back in to the Pete and Donger show.

The reason I nailed it and some of you missed was I was out and about while you all did what was asked and bunkered down. I knew that the 90% number or whatever was floated around about how many were actually social distancing was bull shit. A lot of you bought it since you wanted to believe the original model could not be that far off. Because science!

So when things "opened" not much actually changed. The damage was done and that's why you see the death numbers way below what many expected and probably why Fauci understands a second wave may not happen.

Now back to your regular scheduled programming.

I'm sure it varied a lot by place. I cross I-80 fairly frequently to go to the grocery store or pick up take out. At the end of March during the 4:30~5:30 commute hours, where it used to be four lanes of bumper to bumper traffic, the traffic was so light it could have all been carried on a single lane.

Maybe your area didn't social distance. The region around where I live certainly did.

Maybe your area didn't need to. I'm close enough to SF and Universities with foreign students from Asia and other Asian and international contacts, I'm sure it made a difference.

Traffic on I-80 has since grown a lot but I still haven't seen it bumper to bumper like it used to be.

In the last month, I have not seen a single person in a grocery store without a mask. So maybe in a few months they will be able to crunch the data and see if, or how much, difference it makes.

[Chief Pagan]

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/ar...cities/612979/

Fear of Public Transit Got Ahead of the Evidence
Many have blamed subways and buses for coronavirus outbreaks, but a growing body of research suggests otherwise.

JUNE 14, 2020


...
The assumption that transit was accelerating infections stoked public fears and quickly hardened into conventional wisdom. “Subways, trains and buses are sitting empty around the world,” a Washington Post headline intoned in a May headline, adding, “It’s not clear if riders will return.” When the New York Stock Exchange reopened in May, traders were required to avoid public transportation.

Underlying that rule is an assumption of danger that, so far, research has not borne out. A recent study in Paris found that none of 150 identified coronavirus infection clusters from early May to early June originated on the city’s transit systems. A similar study in Austria found that not one of 355 case clusters in April and May was traceable to riding transit. Though these systems, like their American counterparts, were carrying fewer riders at a lower density than before the pandemic, the results suggest a far less sinister role for transit than the MIT report described.

If transit itself were a global super-spreader, then a large outbreak would have been expected in dense Hong Kong, a city of 7.5 million people dependent on a public transportation system that, before the pandemic, was carrying 12.9 million people a day. Ridership there, according to the Post, fell considerably less than in other transit systems around the world. Yet Hong Kong has recorded only about 1,100 COVID-19 cases, one-tenth the number in Kansas, which has fewer than half as many people. Replicating Hong Kong’s success may involve safety measures, such as mask wearing, that are not yet ingrained in the U.S., but the evidence only underscores that the coronavirus can spread outside of transit and dense urban environments—which are not inherently harmful.
...