***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[Donger]

Originally Posted by Marcellus

You went through all this trouble to prove me correct, and dont even realize it.

But I do. For some reason, you ignored suzzer's statement:

Also on a per capita basis their "big spikes" are usually still like 10x less than our best days since May.

Please note best days. For whatever reason, you picked our recent worst days. That's isn't what he claimed.

Yes, if you look at our worst recent day of 75,000 cases, that's about 228 case per million pop.

Again, that isn't what he used for his claim.

[Pants]

Originally Posted by Donger

But I do. For some reason, you ignored suzzer's statement:

Also on a per capita basis their "big spikes" are usually still like 10x less than our best days since May.

Please note best days. For whatever reason, you picked our recent worst days. That's isn't what he claimed.

Yes, if you look at our worst recent day of 75,000 cases, that's about 228 case per million pop.

Again, that isn't what he used for his claim.

I think your math shows that our spikes are actually better than theirs. The fewer the cases, the "better" the spikes. They are having more cases per capita than us.

[Marcellus]

Originally Posted by Pants

I think your math shows that our spikes are actually better than theirs. The fewer the cases, the "better" the spikes. They are having more cases per capita than us on our worst days.

[Perineum Ripper]

Originally Posted by Discuss Thrower

Only people with an AGENDA would ever claim such a thing.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by Pants

I think your math shows that our spikes are actually better than theirs. The fewer the cases, the "better" the spikes. They are having more cases per capita than us.

I'm not sure why suzzer chose to compare our best to their worst, really. But if you look at our worst (75,000/day) compared to France's, we are worse from a per capita basis. (228/million pop to 166)

[Donger]

Originally Posted by Marcellus

But that's not accurate. Unless you think 228/million pop is less than 166.

[Donger]

From an overall perspective:

USA = 20,441 cases/million pop
France = 6,050 cases/million pop

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by mac459

So I got a call a few minutes ago, telling me I’m positive. Only problem is, I haven’t been tested since the last time, which was over a month ago. Told the lady that, she said you had a test done Friday. Nope, then she decided to argue with me when I last had a test.


Supposed to get a call back from someone else there, to figure out what the **** is going on.

Unpossible.....

[Pants]

Originally Posted by Donger

I'm not sure why suzzer chose to compare our best to their worst, really. But if you look at our worst (75,000/day) compared to France's, we are worse from a per capita basis. (228/million pop to 166)

I think suzzer's point was that Europe's worst was still better than our best. You showed that to be completely untrue.

Comparing Europe's worst to our best was supposed to make his point stronger.

It sounds like, currently, things are much worse in Europe on a per capita basis, while, overall, they have still done a much better job at mitigating the total damage up to this point.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by Pants

I think suzzer's point was that Europe's worst was still better than our best. You showed that to be completely untrue.

Comparing Europe's worst to our best was supposed to make his point stronger.

It sounds like, currently, things are much worse in Europe on a per capita basis, while, overall, they have still done a much better job at mitigating the total damage up to this point.

Yes, and that's why I said this:

I'm not sure why suzzer chose to compare our best to their worst, really.

If we look our present data (~35,000 cases/day), we are at 106 cases/million pop

France is at 166 cases/million pop.

But, if you compare our worst to their worst, we far exceed them. And, yes, overall it's really not even remotely close.

[Pants]

Originally Posted by Donger

Yes, and that's why I said this:

I'm not sure why suzzer chose to compare our best to their worst, really.

I think because if our best was still worse then their worst, it would mean that our worst was that much worse than their worst.

In reality, our best is nowhere near 10 times worse than their worst. As you showed, it's actually better. So suzzer's claim was just completely inaccurate.

Even if he sad our best is worse than their worst without the x10 qualifier, he would still be wrong.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by Pants

I think because if our best was still worse then their worst, it would mean that our worst was that much worse than their worst.

In reality, our best is nowhere near 10 times worse than their worst. As you showed, it's actually better. So suzzer's claim was just completely inaccurate.

Even if he sad our best is worse than their worst without the x10 qualifier, he would still be wrong.

Yes, he was wrong, yes. But so is this:

They are having more cases per capita than us on our worst days.

Anyway, I just realized that we are still not down to where we were in mid-April. That just plain sucks...

[O.city]

Originally Posted by Donger

Yes, he was wrong, yes. But so is this:

They are having more cases per capita than us on our worst days.

Anyway, I just realized that we are still not down to where we were in mid-April. That just plain sucks...

In terms of cases? Or deaths?

[Pants]

Originally Posted by Donger

Yes, he was wrong, yes. But so is this:

They are having more cases per capita than us on our worst days.

Anyway, I just realized that we are still not down to where we were in mid-April. That just plain sucks...

Correct. That is also inaccurate.

I don't know which fallacy is worse.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by O.city

In terms of cases? Or deaths?

We're discussing cases.