Trade 2025 1st round pick?

[RedinTexas]

I tried trading our 2025 1st round pick in a draft simulator and the simulator wildly overvalued the pick, at least in my opinion. I guess the general approach is to value a future pick in the middle of the round, but that assumes no good information about the team's expected finish this coming season. I think it's far more likely that the Chiefs will be finishing near the top than in the middle, let alone the bottom.

This is all in relation to exactly how the Chief's 2025 1st pick should be valued. It's a 1st round pick so it carries the 5th year option like all the other 1st round picks, but it seems very likely to be somewhere close to the last pick of the round, if not the very last. How much should the pick be discounted given that it is in the future? The last pick of the 2024 first round is valued at 590 points in the chart I consult, so if you choose that as your value for the pick, should there be any discount at all considering that it can't possibly get any worse?

What approach do the Chiefs take when considering whether to trade the pick, and what approach do other teams take when considering taking that pick as part of a deal? Any thoughts here?

[Couch-Potato]

I'd estimate -100 value for next year's 1st and we could get as high as #15 with IND for that pick and change.

As much as I'd like that move to be for WR Brian Thomas Jr, I think the bust rate of ~64% on 1st round WRs make that move cost prohibitive so it would need to be for a LT if we're spending 2024 1st too.

Best case scenario would be we only spend one of next year's 3rds to jump the Bills and take BTJ at #27 but that seems like a miracle currently.

[RedinTexas]

Originally Posted by Couch-Potato

I'd estimate -100 value for next year's 1st and we could get as high as #15 with IND for that pick and change.

As much as I'd like that move to be for WR Brian Thomas Jr, I think the bust rate of ~64% on 1st round WRs make that move cost prohibitive so it would need to be for a LT if we're spending 2024 1st too.

Best case scenario would be we only spend one of next year's 3rds to jump the Bills and take BTJ at #27 but that seems like a miracle currently.

But -100 from what?

[kccrow]

Based on history, it's at least 50% of this year's pick and that's just a starting point. It's worse the vast majority of the time. Sometimes you hit that 50% ideal, which was the Pat Mahomes trade. The Rich Hill model is a slightly better representation than the Jimmy Johnson model as a whole but neither are perfect.

[Chris Meck]

That pick will be worth more to us than to anyone else.

It's likely to be #30 or worse, and everyone knows it.

[RedinTexas]

Originally Posted by kccrow

Based on history, it's at least 50% of this year's pick and that's just a starting point. It's worse the vast majority of the time. Sometimes you hit that 50% ideal, which was the Pat Mahomes trade. The Rich Hill model is a slightly better representation than the Jimmy Johnson model as a whole but neither are perfect.

I looked up the values in a current draft chart and if the particulars of that KC-BUF trade were to be applied this year:

1300 points - KC gets #10 overall

680 points - BUF gets #27 overall
136 points - BUF gets #91 overall
xxx points - BUF gets next year's 1st round pick of KC

If that trade is done for "equal" point values, the #1 pick of KC for the following year is valued at 484 points which is approximately equivalent to a #42 overall pick or the 10th pick of the second round.

KC wasn't the threat then that it is now, so they were probably projecting that KC pick to be somewhere around maybe #23, and that would have been 760 points. If that was the case, then they were discounting the pick by about 36%. In fact, that Chiefs pick actually came in at #22 and valued at 780 points. So the Bills got a 38% discount on the pick.

The Chiefs were the team that wanted to make this move. I'm sure that when you contact another team to trade up in the draft there will be a premium demanded in exchange for making the deal, so we don't know what that premium might be, but it seems pretty clear that it exists. Maybe the premium gets bigger based on the size of the jump.

Whatever the case, the Chiefs received 1300 points in draft value and the Bills received 1636 points in draft value. The difference is equivalent to a free low 2nd round pick. That would seem to indicate that the Bills did far better than the Chiefs. The reality is that the Chiefs were the overwhelming winners in this trade.

Broken down to brass tacks the entire deal can be said to show that trading up is expensive and you better know what you're doing when you do it.

[kccrow]

You better start looking at the rest of the trades man because the Pat Mahomes trade was one of the friendliest ever.

[RedinTexas]

Originally Posted by kccrow

You better start looking at the rest of the trades man because the Pat Mahomes trade was one of the friendliest ever.

I looked at the MIN - HOU trade and it looked about the same.

MIN gave up
480 points - #42 overall
16.2 points - #188 overall
xxx points - 2025 2nd round pick

HOU gave up
760 points - #23 overall
1 point - # 232 overall

A middle of round 2 pick would value at about 415 points, but the difference between the two trades is about 265 points. That indicates a premium for Houston of about 150 points which is about 36%.

I just chose that particular trade because it was very recent. What trades do you consider to be much different in compensation premiums? Let's keep them within the last 5-10 years.

[kccrow]

Originally Posted by RedinTexas

I looked at the MIN - HOU trade and it looked about the same.

MIN gave up
480 points - #42 overall
16.2 points - #188 overall
xxx points - 2025 2nd round pick

HOU gave up
760 points - #23 overall
1 point - # 232 overall

A middle of round 2 pick would value at about 415 points, but the difference between the two trades is about 265 points. That indicates a premium for Houston of about 150 points which is about 36%.

I just chose that particular trade because it was very recent. What trades do you consider to be much different in compensation premiums? Let's keep them within the last 5-10 years.

I see how you are doing your math but it's not a convenient way to convey it.

If the 2025 pick is worth 265 points in the trade, then that is about 55% of their current round 2 pick value. That's precisely why I said approximately 50% of the current pick and that's normally how it's stated.

It varies in a range of 35% to 60% of the current year's pick with fair regularity. Those fluctuate based on the model. The Hill model is usually a better representation of trade values too.

[RedinTexas]

Originally Posted by kccrow

I see how you are doing your math but it's not a convenient way to convey it.

If the 2025 pick is worth 265 points in the trade, then that is about 55% of their current round 2 pick value. That's precisely why I said approximately 50% of the current pick and that's normally how it's stated.

It varies in a range of 35% to 60% of the current year's pick with fair regularity. Those fluctuate based on the model. The Hill model is usually a better representation of trade values too.

Yep, gotcha.

[Couch-Potato]

Originally Posted by RedinTexas

But -100 from what?

From the trade value charts used for NFL drafts.

I have a theory that 1st round picks aren't discounted as much as later picks, which are typically valued as 1 round less if a year ahead.

[BryanBusby]

Throw that shit out the window. Nobody is going to have interest in helping the Chiefs.

[RedinTexas]

Originally Posted by BryanBusby

Throw that shit out the window. Nobody is going to have interest in helping the Chiefs.

No, but they'll be interested in helping themselves. They may demand more for making a trade with the Chiefs and it may be so much that we won't make any trades, but they will trade if the price is right.

[kccrow]

I think NFC teams will be much more inclined to make a deal than AFC teams will be. At most, they have to worry about 1 game in the playoffs if they are a contender.

Seattle at 16 and LA at 19 are the prime spots. Both are teams not scared to move down. Seattle has been a trade partner in the past and they don't have a 2nd round pick. I think Arizona at 27 is a spot too, especially if it involves future capital.

[RedinTexas]

Originally Posted by kccrow

I think NFC teams will be much more inclined to make a deal than AFC teams will be. At most, they have to worry about 1 game in the playoffs if they are a contender.

Seattle at 16 and LA at 19 are the prime spots. Both are teams not scared to move down. Seattle has been a trade partner in the past and they don't have a 2nd round pick. I think Arizona at 27 is a spot too, especially if it involves future capital.

Agreed. The whole point of trading is to improve your team's position. It makes no sense whatsoever for some teams to refuse to trade with the Chiefs when they can improve their drafts.