***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[Marcellus]

Originally Posted by O.city

I'm just trying to figure out what you're trying to get at with the H1N1 stuff.

Does this stat alone not make you wonder what the hell is going on right now?

Eighty-seven percent of deaths occurred in those under 65 years of age with children and working adults having risks of hospitalization and death 4 to 7 times and 8 to 12 times greater, respectively, than estimates of impact due to seasonal influenza covering the years 1976-2001.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by Marcellus

Does this stat alone not make you wonder what the hell is going on right now?

Sure, that happened over a year.

This is gonna happen over a 4-6 week period.

Thats different right?

[Marcellus]

Originally Posted by O.city

Sure, that happened over a year.

This is gonna happen over a 4-6 week period.

Thats different right?

You think 12,000 people are going to die in4-6 weeks? We are already 3 months into this at 345.

H1N1 was killing younger working age people and kids.

[SupDock]

Originally Posted by O.city

Sure, that happened over a year.

This is gonna happen over a 4-6 week period.

Thats different right?

I also saw a translated interview from a government official in Italy that suspected their deaths were 4x higher than reported due to people untested and dying.

[stumppy]

Originally Posted by Marcellus

I can't find a month to month breakdown I did find the 12 month summary.

I think the bolded part especially the last couple sentences are pretty eye opening.

Yea, that's exactly the same, kinda,....not really....well, not at all.

[Donger]

I realize it's almost certainly an outlier, but hey, it looks like we had fewer new cases yesterday. The first time that's happened, I think:

March 17 = 1,748 new daily cases
March 18 = 2,848 new daily cases
March 19 = 4,530 new daily cases
March 20 = 5,594 new daily cases
March 21 = 4,824 new daily cases

[Marcellus]

Originally Posted by stumppy

Yea, that's exactly the same, kinda,....not really....well, not at all.

Its actually worse so yea you are correct.

[Marcellus]

Originally Posted by SupDock

I also saw a translated interview from a government official in Italy that suspected their deaths were 4x higher than reported due to people untested and dying.

So why the hell is Italy having such a larger issue than any other country?

[wazu]

Originally Posted by Donger

I realize it's almost certainly an outlier, but hey, it looks like we had fewer new cases yesterday. The first time that's happened, I think:

March 17 = 1,748 new daily cases
March 18 = 2,848 new daily cases
March 19 = 4,530 new daily cases
March 20 = 5,594 new daily cases
March 21 = 4,824 new daily cases

I'm wondering how much weekend matters on results being reported.

[Mr_Tomahawk]

Originally Posted by Donger

I realize it's almost certainly an outlier, but hey, it looks like we had fewer new cases yesterday. The first time that's happened, I think:

March 17 = 1,748 new daily cases
March 18 = 2,848 new daily cases
March 19 = 4,530 new daily cases
March 20 = 5,594 new daily cases
March 21 = 4,824 new daily cases

I don’t know what to take from this. Cautiously optimistic the curve may be flattening?

We have heard over and over how the numbers will spike with more testing available....but then we see a drop in new cases...?

[stumppy]

Originally Posted by Marcellus

So why the hell is Italy having such a larger issue than any other country?

Because they were too slow to enact the things we are doing.

[wazu]

Originally Posted by Donger

I realize it's almost certainly an outlier, but hey, it looks like we had fewer new cases yesterday. The first time that's happened, I think:

March 17 = 1,748 new daily cases
March 18 = 2,848 new daily cases
March 19 = 4,530 new daily cases
March 20 = 5,594 new daily cases
March 21 = 4,824 new daily cases

To compare with a lagging indicator....

March 17 = 23 new daily deaths
March 18 = 41 new daily deaths
March 19 = 57 new daily deaths
March 20 = 49 new daily deaths
March 21 = 46 new daily deaths

[Donger]

Originally Posted by Mr_Tomahawk

I don’t know what to take from this. Cautiously optimistic the curve may be flattening?

We have heard over and over how the numbers will spike with more testing available....but then we see a drop in new cases...?

Like I said, it's almost certainly an outlier, but...

[Marcellus]

Originally Posted by stumppy

Because they were too slow to enact the things we are doing.

That doesn't explain it all, no way no how.

[Mr_Tomahawk]

Originally Posted by wazu

To compare with a lagging indicator....

March 17 = 23 new daily deaths
March 18 = 41 new daily deaths
March 19 = 57 new daily deaths
March 20 = 49 new daily deaths
March 21 = 46 new daily deaths

Wut?