***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by SAUTO

I think it would have at least doubled without locking down. Look at the numbers in NY and NJ (and I realize that's a totally different way of life there ) but they are still going up 8 weeks after locking down.

The numbers would be crazy if we hadn't done what we did so far. Imo

The hospitalization rate in NYC is and has been on a steady decline.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by BleedingRed

Right but do you think it would have been double had we not locked down, how much did we mitigate it? Or would those people have died all the same over a longer period of time?

I don't know the answers, and its worth discussing.

Considering how accurate the model has been with mitigation efforts, I see no reason to dispute the model on estimated deaths without mitigation.

[TLO]

Originally Posted by SAUTO

It's going down...

We've officially become a hot spot in Buchanan County. 341 cases now compared to the 60 or so we had a week ago.

Had a death recorded today too. No information on the person who passed.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by SAUTO

It's going down...

What is?

[dirk digler]

Originally Posted by DaFace

Zero? No. But there are a dozen countries that are seeing very little in terms of new cases at this point, and when they pop up, they aggressively contact trace to minimize spread.

Every state with the backing of the federal government should have followed the South Korea model and we would have been much better off.

[TLO]

Originally Posted by SAUTO

It's going down...

I'm yelling timber
You better move, you better dance
Let's make a night, you won't remember
I'll be the one, you won't forget

[SAUTO]

Originally Posted by petegz28

The hospitalization rate in NYC is and has been on a steady decline.

Lol. Over 1k in new hospitals a day isn't a decline imo...

[SAUTO]

Originally Posted by O.city

What is?

Nothing. I was being sarcastic.

[mr. tegu]

Originally Posted by SAUTO

No my statement implies 70k died in the past 2 months. Just like I said

Your statement states that. The implication I’m referring to from that statement is that it implies 70k deaths in the known infection timeline (2 months), as that is the information available. And that’s fine. But if that information changes then so does our thoughts on it. 70k in four months isn’t great but it’s better.

[Monticore]

Originally Posted by Megatron96

I found one of these in my truck a couple years ago. I haven't moved that fast in 30 years:


And this thing is about half the size of that Japanese hornet.

Looks like Murder hornets are up here too, they behead all the bees they kill and feed them to their young.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by DaFace

Zero? No. But there are a dozen countries that are seeing very little in terms of new cases at this point, and when they pop up, they aggressively contact trace to minimize spread.

That sounds good and I'd like to believe it on its face but when I see the amount of "asymptomatic" people running around here I have to wonder what the real deal is? I know Germany was being touted and then a few days ago I saw a story about how they might have to lock down again.

[Monticore]

Originally Posted by petegz28

The hospitalization rate in NYC is and has been on a steady decline.

They also changed the criteria for hospitalizations and might still be adjusting that.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by SAUTO

Lol. Over 1k in new hospitals a day isn't a decline imo...

Cuomo just had the chart up and the hospitalization rate has been in decline for a couple weeks now. But I guess he lied....

[Monticore]

Originally Posted by petegz28

Cuomo just had the chart up and the hospitalization rate has been in decline for a couple weeks now. But I guess he lied....

Decline total or decline in growth?

[SAUTO]

Originally Posted by mr. tegu

Your statement states that. The implication I’m referring to from that statement is that it implies 70k deaths in the known infection timeline (2 months), as that is the information available. And that’s fine. But if that information changes then so does our thoughts on it. 70k in four months isn’t great but it’s better.

I can't wrap my head around how anything in a timeline changes the fact almost 70k died in 2 months.


The information on dates doesn't change that fact. It never can or will.


Even if it was here for 10 years it killed almost 70 k in the past 2 months.