***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[Donger]

Originally Posted by mr. tegu

You know that’s not the point.

Yes, it is the point. If you think it isn't, feel free to explain.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by dirk digler

I see they are being sued for restricting use to only hospitalized covid patients but not for this decision.

And the outfit that's suing is hardly objective.

[BigCatDaddy]

Originally Posted by tooge

Wouldn't daily change in deaths be an easier way to really track this thing since so many people are asymptomatic. If you die, and you tested positive, that's a real number. The cases vary by testing. No? If so, then it looks like it's slowly going down, not up.

I'd like to hear a response from one of the Branch Covidians on this.

[loochy]

Originally Posted by tooge

Wouldn't daily change in deaths be an easier way to really track this thing since so many people are asymptomatic. If you die, and you tested positive, that's a real number. The cases vary by testing. No? If so, then it looks like it's slowly going down, not up.

Yes, but the deaths are such a lagging indicator that it makes action even that much more behind the curve.

[BigCatDaddy]

Originally Posted by loochy

Yes, but the deaths are such a lagging indicator that it makes action even that much more behind the curve.

Most places started opening up at the beginning of May. 6 weeks after that deaths are down about 60% nationwide.

At some point we need to say the open up crowd was correct. It won't happen but should.

[kgrund]

Originally Posted by Donger

Considering that this thing is spread by humans, it's just common sense that reopening was and is leading to new cases and hospitalizations.

In terms of tracking the progress of the pandemic new cases is a fairly useless number in and of itself. The only thing that matters, as it relates to new cases, is the daily % of those tested that have tested positive for the virus. That should be a far more relevant number than gross new cases especially when the rate of testing is increasing at a vastly more rapid rate than detected positive cases. As mentioned earlier, in terms of the muddiness of the reporting, it would also seem to only make intuitive sense that any antibody tests and their results are parsed out of the reported new daily tests and cases. Track them separately but leave them out of new daily tests and cases given the fact they may have had it a couple of months ago is irrelevant to the daily count.

[DaFace]

Originally Posted by BigCatDaddy

Most places started opening up at the beginning of May. 6 weeks after that deaths are down about 60% nationwide.

At some point we need to say the open up crowd was correct. It won't happen but should.

This is a false dichotomy. The debate was about the timing and magnitude of relaxing restrictions, not whether it should be done at all.

[lewdog]

Neighbors inviting our family over for a big 60th birthday party this Saturday.

Can’t wait!!!

[eDave]

Originally Posted by lewdog

Neighbors inviting our family over for a big 60th birthday party this Saturday.

Can’t wait!!!

hmmmm.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by kgrund

In terms of tracking the progress of the pandemic new cases is a fairly useless number in and of itself. The only thing that matters, as it relates to new cases, is the daily % of those tested that have tested positive for the virus. That should be a far more relevant number than gross new cases especially when the rate of testing is increasing at a vastly more rapid rate than detected positive cases. As mentioned earlier, in terms of the muddiness of the reporting, it would also seem to only make intuitive sense that any antibody tests and their results are parsed out of the reported new daily tests and cases. Track them separately but leave them out of new daily tests and cases given the fact they may have had it a couple of months ago is irrelevant to the daily count.

That's why I also mentioned hospitalizations.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by BigCatDaddy

At some point we need to say the open up crowd was correct. It won't happen but should.

Correct in what regard?

[BigCatDaddy]

Originally Posted by DaFace

This is a false dichotomy. The debate was about the timing and magnitude of relaxing restrictions, not whether it should be done at all.

Did you miss all the predictions of mass hospitalizations and deaths once restrictions were eased?

[eDave]

Originally Posted by Donger

Correct in what regard?

Curious about this as well. AZ is popping, post opening up. I've been out a lot and it's like nothing ever happened. And the mood is high. And I gotta say, the women are on the prowl.

[DaFace]

Originally Posted by BigCatDaddy

Did you miss all the predictions of mass hospitalizations and deaths once restrictions were eased?

I hereby dub you an official member of the "world is black and white" club with Pete.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by lewdog

Neighbors inviting our family over for a big 60th birthday party this Saturday.

Can’t wait!!!

you ever take your 2nd antibody test?