***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[eDave]

Arizona

Cases: The 7-day avg. shot up yet again. This is the highest number of positive cases added in a single day. (Likely catching up from weekend lag)

Testing: PCR testing is up by a couple thousand tests over yesterday. (Likely catching up from weekend lag)

Spread: Overall PCR positive test percentage ticked up again from 8.5% to 8.7% (based on 354K tests, up from a 6.6% low) and the average for this week is 21%. (Be aware this is only based on 269 cases. Total cases for a week are usually between 40K and 50K. Highly likely to fall tomorrow.) EDIT: Or maybe not.

Hospital Utilization: Hospitalizations are up by 4%. Overall ICU usage dropped to 80%, but ICU beds for COVID patients hit all time high. Ventilators in use for COVID also hit all time high.

[loochy]

Originally Posted by Mecca

BleedingRed is going to run off now he wasn't here yesterday for his poke fun session when he said Texas was great...

Texas is starting to get spanked which isn't surprising they have some huge cities.

DFW hasn't blown up yet. I'm not sure about San Antonio. Austin actually has a pretty dense urban center with a LOT of young folk that probably don't take this seriously, so that's not a surprise. I;m not sure what Houston's problem is.

[Mecca]

Originally Posted by loochy

DFW hasn't blown up yet. I'm not sure about San Antonio. Austin actually has a pretty dense urban center with a LOT of young folk that probably don't take this seriously, so that's not a surprise. I;m not sure what Houston's problem is.

Houston is like the 4th biggest city in the country, that's their problem.

[BigCatDaddy]

Retail sales in May up 17% only down 6% from last May. Told you assholes hardly anybody was staying home.

[Mecca]

Originally Posted by BigCatDaddy

Retail sales in May up 17%. Told you assholes hardly anybody was staying home.

This is as stupid a take as people saying ESPN viewership is down.

Really you don't say? A bunch more stuff is open today than it was a month ago, I am stunned.

[BigCatDaddy]

Originally Posted by Mecca

This is as stupid a take as people saying ESPN viewership is down.

Really you don't say? A bunch more stuff is open today than it was a month ago, I am stunned.

Down only 6% from last year and 10% higher than projected. You can keep your head up your ass or pull it out and see the real world outside of this thread. Sadly, I know what you will do.

[kgrund]

Originally Posted by Mecca

The south doesn't seem to be handling this well.

Yeah taking a bath on this thing compared to others. Per Worldometers deaths per million:

South:

TX 70
NC 111
SC 117
GA 235
VA 184
TN 71
MS 307
AL 160
LA 655
AR 60
FL 139
KY 113

Average 185 deaths per million

Northeast:

VT 88
ME 75
MA 1,109
CT 1,179
NH 235
RI 817
PA 496
NY 1,593
NJ 1,445
DE 435
MD 493

Average 724 deaths per million

[Mecca]

I think you should use the entire numbers since this started and completely disregard that I was talking about currently where the south is trending upwards higher than any other region.

So are you being intentionally obtuse or are you just a dumb****?

[TLO]

Originally Posted by Donger

Revised total:

201,129 COVID-19 deaths projected by October 1, 2020

That model has been revised and so many different numbers have come out of it that I take whatever it says with a giant chunk of salt.

It wasn't all that long ago that it was predicting 60k deaths.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by TLO

That model has been revised and so many different numbers have come out of it that I take whatever it says with a giant chunk of salt.

It wasn't all that long ago that it was predicting 60k deaths.

It's been revised when certain events have taken place, right? It went down to 60,000 because mitigation efforts were being taken more than they anticipated, then increased to 80,000, I think.

The model the task force used way back was 100,000 to 240,000 deaths with mitigation efforts.

[PAChiefsGuy]

Originally Posted by Donger

It's been revised when certain events have taken place, right? It went down to 60,000 because mitigation efforts were being taken more than they anticipated, then increased to 80,000, I think.

The model the task force used way back was 100,000 to 240,000 deaths with mitigation efforts.

And they were right.

[BleedingRed]

Originally Posted by Mecca

I think you should use the entire numbers since this started and completely disregard that I was talking about currently where the south is trending upwards higher than any other region.

So are you being intentionally obtuse or are you just a dumb****?

Lmao ok man...

Fear Porn is back everyone. We've been open for two months and our average has gone from 1800 people is hospitals to 2200.

OH NO we only have 26,000 hospital beds left!

[Donger]

Originally Posted by PAChiefsGuy

And they were right.

Yes, they were and are.

[TLO]

Originally Posted by dirk digler

The rate was highest among people 80 and older and lowest among children 9 and younger. But the relationship between age and incidence rate was not a straight line: It was higher among peoples age 40-49 years and 50-59 years than among those age 60-69 years and 70-79 years.

I've read over this several times and I'm still not sure what they're talking about? I don't understand the statement above.

Even looking at the data I don't see what they're talking about. Someone break out the crayons and break it down for me.

[Bearcat]

Originally Posted by BleedingRed

Lmao ok man...

Fear Porn is back everyone. We've been open for two months and our average has gone from 1800 people is hospitals to 2200.

OH NO we only have 26,000 hospital beds left!

As far as Arizona, Banner hospitals are close to 100% capacity in their ICUs (last I read) and being urged to implement emergency procedures... one smaller hospital in Tuscon is down to its last ICU bed.

And you can have a skyscraper full of beds, but there's also staffing and supplies, etc. You won't overwhelm the beds.

The virus doesn't seem to care about whether people got bored at home or whatever parts-per-million stat that helps prop up agendas... or apparently 110 degree heat.