***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[Marcellus]

Originally Posted by Discuss Thrower

Nothing amuses me more than seeing a front line medical worker who once was crying on their social media presence about a patient's fear of dying from C-19 and then seeing that same person participate in a wedding with zero social distancing and zero mask wearing.

The local mayor basically called out the community about wearing masks after they passed a mask ordinance, saying something to the effect we know 70% don't want the ordinance but we are going to do it anyway because we know better.

He was then seen a few days later in a liquor store shopping without a mask on.

[TLO]

I love this Doctor on YouTube.

I either don't know how or can't embed on my phone.

(There's a small political statement in the video but he uses examples from the left and right to tie his point together) In no way do I feel he is politically motivated one way or the other.

https://youtu.be/qjmVkBNyWg4

[TLO]

Originally Posted by Marcellus

There seems to be some meat behind the idea that this thing can only hit a 20% or so infection rate because there is a large number of people with immunity already.

Also like I said Friday, its just running its course in areas that weren't hit before. And if you look at the mortality rate for Texas, California and Florida compared to NY its apples and oranges.

Here in SWM it seems to be on the down curve big time as well.

How many cases a day are you getting down there? How big of a population size are we talking? Trying to compare it with what we experienced in NW Missouri already.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by TLO

I love this Doctor on YouTube.

I either don't know how or can't embed on my phone.

(There's a small political statement in the video but he uses examples from the left and right to tie his point together) In no way do I feel he is politically motivated one way or the other.

https://youtu.be/qjmVkBNyWg4

[O.city]

Originally Posted by Marcellus

There seems to be some meat behind the idea that this thing can only hit a 20% or so infection rate because there is a large number of people with immunity already.

Also like I said Friday, its just running its course in areas that weren't hit before. And if you look at the mortality rate for Texas, California and Florida compared to NY its apples and oranges.

Here in SWM it seems to be on the down curve big time as well.

Not here in Springfield. It's going up quick

[O.city]

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/...lse-positives-

Not sure if this can be viewed without a subscription. It was one of my 2 free views. But there has been a good amount of false positives talk today. With how much testing we're doing, there's gonna be a good amount. I'm thinking Lew got one.

[eDave]

Originally Posted by O.city

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/...lse-positives-

Not sure if this can be viewed without a subscription. It was one of my 2 free views. But there has been a good amount of false positives talk today. With how much testing we're doing, there's gonna be a good amount. I'm thinking Lew got one.

Spoiler!

Test, test, test said the WHO. And globally, that’s what everyone did: tests have detected more than 14 million cases of Sars-CoV-2 so far. The thinking goes: turn up, have your test, and if positive, you must have the disease. But that’s far from the truth. When virus levels in the population are very low, the chances of a test accurately detecting Covid-19 could be even less than 50 per cent – for reasons that are not widely understood.

There are two issues about tests to get your head around. The first is the sensitivity of the test: the proportion of people who test positive, out of the population who have the virus. The second measure, specificity, is about the proportion of people who test negative, out of the population who should have tested negative. Finding out the actual values of these two measures is tricky. The Office for National Statistics admits they do not ‘know the true sensitivity and specificity of the test because Covid-19 is a new virus’.

Estimates suggest that roughly 80 per cent of infected people will have a positive test (the sensitivity). Based on the latest data, specificity may be as high as 99.9 per cent for those who test negative. I think this is a bit high, but let’s run with it for now.

To unravel the confusion, let’s think about what happens when the virus level is low – which it is in Britain at the moment. The latest ONS estimate is that about 0.04 per cent, or one in 2,300 people, had the virus at any point between 6 and 12 July. But for ease of calculation, let’s imagine the real infection level is higher: that 1 in 1,000 of us have the virus. Or 0.1 per cent.

And let’s imagine again that, in this scenario, 10,000 random people go for a Covid-19 test. With the infection level at 0.1 per cent, just ten people will have Sars-CoV-2 and 9,990 will not. Of the ten who turn up with an infection, 80 per cent will test positive, meaning eight people will be correctly identified while two walk away with a false negative.

And of the 9,990 not infected, all but ten will be correctly diagnosed as negative: hence the success rate of 99.9 per cent (the specificity). But ten will be told they have Covid-19, when in fact they don’t. That leaves us with 18 positive tests: eight from people who genuinely had the virus and ten who did not. So only eight out of 18 (44 per cent) of the infections are real. That’s where the chance of accurately detecting the disease being less than 50 per cent comes from.

But the above is not so hypothetical, given that the latest figures show the virus at lower levels than the scenario considered above, with tens of thousands of tests carried out every day. The academic study accompanying the ONS Infection Survey from 26 April to 28 June makes this point: ‘Even in a purely hypothetical situation that the virus is not circulating, a test specificity of 99.9 per cent would be associated with an expected number of positive tests that is approximately equal to what we observed over the entire study period.’

Problems with test accuracy are likely to be more of an issue globally. The current US Centers for Disease Control test kits can generate up to 30 per cent false positives even in their best laboratories. Highly accurate tests can prove costly – more than £100 per test. So, we shouldn’t be surprised that in poorer countries, highly questionable cheaper alternative tests, which cost less than £3, have been distributed and used. A recent BMJ review reported that the specificity of PCR tests could be as low as 95 per cent, as PCR test performance can be much worse in low prevalence community settings. This would mean that, in our hypothetical of 10,000 tests, we’d have 500 false positives amongst the eight genuine positives. So the hundreds of false-positive Covid-19 results would dwarf the genuine results – meaning an apparent surge in infections that is not followed by a corresponding surge in hospital admissions or deaths.

At very low prevalence, the proportion of people with infection falls and the numbers of falsely misdiagnosed increases. If Covid-19 completely disappears, then of our 10,000, no one will be infected. If you have followed the reasoning so far, you will have worked out this means that ten people would still be wrongly diagnosed as positive and the official data would show a national Covid-19 prevalence of 0.1 per cent. This is why understanding the accuracy of tests in the population that they are applied to matters: going off current testing practices and results, Covid-19 might never be shown to disappear.

[Marcellus]

Originally Posted by O.city

Not here in Springfield. It's going up quick

Interesting but I think we may be a few weeks ahead of you guys.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by Marcellus

Interesting but I think we may be a few weeks ahead of you guys.

Springfield is alot bigger as well. We'll see how it goes. Hopefully it starts trending down soon. Currently 424 active cases in the county.

[MahomesMagic]

Sero tests can lag a bit but I saw some people noting that 10-20% showing antibodies was typically the point where the virus had peaked and was close to running out of options.

[Discuss Thrower]

Originally Posted by O.city

Springfield is alot bigger as well. We'll see how it goes. Hopefully it starts trending down soon. Currently 424 active cases in the county.

Greene County has done a better job with the data presentation compared to KCMO. Jesus.

[TLO]

Our county announced 3 more deaths today, all related to the outbreak at one of our local nursing homes.

[TLO]

Numbers updated on Worldomoters and they're still pretty low. Looking back they were pretty low last Monday too though.

[BigCatDaddy]

Originally Posted by TLO

Our county announced 3 more deaths today, all related to the outbreak at one of our local nursing homes.

Probably one of the most protected places around in regards to mask and testing.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by TLO

Numbers updated on Worldomoters and they're still pretty low. Looking back they were pretty low last Monday too though.

We will probably be a little higher than last week but we aren't seeing any kind of surge...THANK GOD!