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Old 01-07-2021, 12:01 PM  
ChiefsCountry ChiefsCountry is offline
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***Official 2021 Royals Season Repository Thread***
For all things Royals for the new year.

Free Agent Signings:
Carlos Santana
Mike Minor
Michael Taylor
Ervin Santana

Top 10 Prospects:
1 Bobby Witt Jr., SS
2 Asa Lacy, LHP
3 Daniel Lynch, LHP
4 Jackson Kowar, RHP
5 Erick Pena, OF
6 Nick Loftin, SS
7 Kyle Isbel, OF
8 Khali Lee, OF
9 Jonathan Bowlan, RHP
10 Carlos Hernedez, RHP
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Old 08-13-2021, 11:27 AM   #4831
Mama Hip Rockets Mama Hip Rockets is offline
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Any word on Mondesi? He's been in Omaha for rehab, but he's missed a few games.
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Old 08-13-2021, 11:32 AM   #4832
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Originally Posted by duncan_idaho View Post
Yeah, that type of extension seems unlikely. I have a hard time trusting ZIPS for WAR predictions,
Why?

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and I suspect the Royals would have a rosier view.
Of course they do, and that’s what I’m afraid of.
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Most likely scenario is that he is brought back on his final arb year and given a chance to prove he can stay healthy and productive all season.
True.
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Old 08-13-2021, 12:25 PM   #4833
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Only if we are buying low. If we agree to some 4/50 deal DM should be fired.




I took the liberty of dazzling you all with a hypo Beni deal. We know 2 things nec to do this: Symborski’s ZIPS projections and his cost per FA win.


1) ZIPS
2022: 1.4
2023: 1.1

2) Cost per win*
2022: 6.37m or 3.7m
2023: 7.34m or 3.7m



*He finds that a 1 War guy gets 3.7m per win. A 4 War guy gets 7.2m per win. Since Beni is proj to be the low bar, we get him the low contract.


NET: a 2-yr extension for 2023-24 should be about $7.5M total. Equal to his current salary and A pay cut from his $6.6m 2022 salary.
Serious question, because I honestly have no clue. How close have ZIPS future WAR predictions been? Obviously you wouldn't expect it to be right on the mark with every prediction, but is it within 80% of the WAR on 80% of the players (not counting injured players).
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Old 08-13-2021, 12:26 PM   #4834
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Why?



Of course they do, and that’s what I’m afraid of.


True.
Dave S strikes me as an unflinching believer in his own stuff. I don't think he adjusts it very well, and I've never found ZIPS predictions to be that accurate.
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Old 08-13-2021, 12:49 PM   #4835
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Well in doing my own research it seems to me that ZiPS is pretty much one of the worst prediction systems out there. It was pretty much last in each year I've looked at.
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Old 08-13-2021, 01:13 PM   #4836
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This is a total aside.

I was feeling nostalgic and was looking for 2014-2015 highlights and realized the Royals Supercut video (1 hour and 37 minutes of pure 2015 Royals highlights) had been taken down from Youtube - as with a lot of other highlight videos from that time due to copyright. I found the creator of the Supercut on reddit, I then found the creator of "Blue October" who had the Blue October 1 AND a Blue October 2 video he made from 2015 that Youtube took down immediately. I now have an over 2 hour video of 2014 AND 2015 highlights and am in the process of adding 2014 World Series highlights and other highlights from that run (mostly defensive) that weren't in the original videos.

Anywho, all that is to say that re-watching the 2015 postseason made me realize that Moose actually really struggled on defense in that entire postseason. To the point where I can not remember him struggling to that level at any other time in his career. He couldn't turn double plays in Game 2 or Game 5 against the Stros (potentially costing Cueto a perfect game (seriously) in Game 5). He had a bad error in the ninth inning of Game 1 against the Jays (luckily, unlike the Royals, who could turn any error into a rally like they would the following game, Hoch and our D shut that down), he also couldn't turn a critical double play in the World Series (leading to the only run against Cueto in Game 2) and couldn't make plays on the shift throughout it.

Luckily he didn't botch anything in big moments (had the last outs in Game 2 of the ALDS, Game 6 of the ALCS, and Game 4 of the WS), but something interesting to me is that I still see Jays fans on reddit who argue that Ryan Goins may have cost them the ALCS with his misplay in Game 2. It's really a testament to how strong our bullpen, Cueto (in the ALDS and WS) and the rest of our defense was that Moose's entire 2015 defensive postseason struggles have been simply forgotten about today.
Last edited by Chiefspants; 08-13-2021 at 02:20 PM..
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Old 08-13-2021, 02:14 PM   #4837
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Our 2022 schedule has an interesting twist in it. If you look at June our schedule is Houston, Toronto, Baltimore, San Francisco, Oakland, and Angels all in a row. All of our 2014 and 2015 playoff teams.
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Old 08-13-2021, 03:22 PM   #4838
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Our 2022 schedule has an interesting twist in it. If you look at June our schedule is Houston, Toronto, Baltimore, San Francisco, Oakland, and Angels all in a row. All of our 2014 and 2015 playoff teams.
Not all. But still kinda crazy.
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Old 08-13-2021, 03:25 PM   #4839
Chiefspants Chiefspants is offline
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Not all. But still kinda crazy.
We'll re-match the Mets in the World Series to cover em' all.
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Old 08-13-2021, 03:26 PM   #4840
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We'll re-match the Mets in the World Series to cover em' all.
Haha. I’ll take it!
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Old 08-13-2021, 09:14 PM   #4841
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I'm so glad that Olivares and Witt and Pratto and Isbel are rotting in AAA so that Dyson and Dozier and O'Hearn and Taylor and Davis and Holland and Ervin Santana can keep getting playing time.
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Old 08-13-2021, 09:33 PM   #4842
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I'm so glad that Olivares and Witt and Pratto and Isbel are rotting in AAA so that Dyson and Dozier and O'Hearn and Taylor and Davis and Holland and Ervin Santana can keep getting playing time.
Are they manipulating service time or are they dumb, it's one or the other.
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Old 08-13-2021, 09:35 PM   #4843
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Are they manipulating service time or are they dumb, it's one or the other.
Why waste those guys with Mathney.
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Old 08-13-2021, 10:37 PM   #4844
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Why waste those guys with Mathney.
Olivares needs to be up. He's too old to be sitting in AAA and we need to know if he's part of the future. I don't think I've ever been more mad about a prospect not getting time than I am with what they're doing with Olivares. He's outplayed everyone that's taking his ABs. Absolutely crushing it in the minors.

During his last 8 game stint, started 6 and he was great


24 ABs/6 hits/3 HRs/.250 BA/.280 OBP/.625 SLG/.905 OPS

He was really unlucky too with a .167 BAbip.

He also has a rbi single as a pinch hitter in the 11th.

Then the next day...

Demoted for a bullpen arm. Could have sent down O'Hearn, Dozier, DFA'd Wade or Dyson. Nope send down one of our hottest hitters.

****ing talk about demoralizing. Take all the kids momentum and flush it down the toilet. This is literally unforgivable and this alone should get that mother****ing bible ****ing dimwit DM fired. **** I hate that man.

Witt Jr., Pratto, Melendez need to stay as far away from Mike Matheny as possible. That **** stick could absolutely ruin our only hope to contend anytime soon.
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Old 08-14-2021, 01:35 AM   #4845
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So what in the living **** is going on with Mondesi? It seems to be pretty quiet and he's just still sitting there in Omaha not playing. It's like 4 games in a row now or 5 maybe.
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