How does Dwayne Bowe rank among the elite WR's?

[OnTheWarpath15]

Sorry, didn't want this getting overlooked in the other thread. Then again, people will probably ignore it anyway - I know some of you will appreciate this.


I keep seeing people say that Dwayne Bowe isn't an elite WR. So I decided to do some research to see how he matches up statistically over his 5 years in the league.

What I found, is that statistically, Bowe is the 10th best WR of the last 5 years.

I found 9 other WR's that either had better yardage totals, better TD numbers or both. He was 10th in yardage, tied for 6th in TD's.

Here's the list. (Yardage/TD's) Bolded players have fewer or same TD's as Bowe.


Larry Fitzgerald - 6480/49

Roddy White - 6422/42

Reggie Wayne - 6234/36

Wes Welker - 6105/31

Calvin Johnson - 5872/49

Andre Johnson - 5703/35

Greg Jennings - 5539/46

Steve Smith - 5353/29

Marques Colston - 5202/40

Dwayne Bowe - 4927/36


Personally, I think that's impressive on its own.

Especially when you consider the only guy on this list who is younger is Megatron. I'd be curious to see how he matches up to the same players during each of their first 5 seasons.

Anyway, when you compare Bowe's number's to the #1 yardage and #1 TD's - he's not nearly as far off as it seems.

It comes down to 19.41 yard a game, and .16 TD's per game.

Factor in that Bowe is missing something the other 9 have - solid QB play.

After looking at this, its hard for me to say Dwayne Bowe is NOT an elite WR, considering how his numbers match up to the "elite" and never having the benefit of decent QB play.

I'm pretty confident in saying that with solid QB play, Bowe would easily make up 19.41 yards and .16 TD's a game.

Like him or not, he's an elite WR - and has shown it over his 5 years in the league.

Dude deserved elite money.

Or, tl;dr - **** him.

[BigMeatballDave]

Originally Posted by jd1020

Full reerun would be giving Bowe 50M guaranteed.

Why?

I mean ~42-45m would probably be enough.

But he's probably the 2nd best player on the team.

[Chiefnj2]

Originally Posted by jd1020

Just because he's extra valuable to this team doesn't mean you give into his demands and pay him the same as players who are better. If Bowe is asking for Fitzgerald money then Pioli is playing this the right way. Locking him down with the franchise tag for his prime years while paying him less.

And what if Bowe doesn't show up until 3 days before the regular season, and his production is very limited because he doesn't know the playbook and isn't making a great effort because he feels he's been slighted. Is that 9.5 million well spent?

[Hammock Parties]

Originally Posted by BigRock

I think it's pretty clear that, in Bowe's first couple years, the majority of his stats (66% -- so nearly 70%) came while the team was behind. And aside from 2009, it's noted that most of those stats came with the team trailing by 10 or more.

That doesn't mean they were playing against prevent defenses, nor does it mean they're garbage numbers.

In fact, it should be noted that Calvin Johnson's numbers? Well, yeah.

http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/splits...calvin-johnson

2007 - When trailing - 383 of his 756 yards

2008 - When trailing - 1,094 of his 1,331 yards

2009 - When trailing - 701 of his 984 yards

2010 - When trailing - 786 of his 1,120 yards

2011 - When trailing - 1,022 of his 1,681 yards

So it works both ways. That's 3,986 yards...or 67.8 percent...of Megatron's production. Coming while the Lions were behind.

[jd1020]

Originally Posted by Dave

Why?

Why not pay Ferrari price on a BMW?

[jd1020]

Originally Posted by Chiefnj2

And what if Bowe doesn't show up until 3 days before the regular season, and his production is very limited because he doesn't know the playbook and isn't making a great effort because he feels he's been slighted. Is that 9.5 million well spent?

He's looking for a big contract and you think he's going to slack off?

[BigMeatballDave]

Originally Posted by jd1020

Why not pay Ferrari price on a BMW?

[jd1020]

Originally Posted by Dave

Not sure why you are facepalming. You are asking why not pay him the same as someone who is much better. Or are you going to try and argue that Bowe = Fitzgerald/Megatron?

[BigMeatballDave]

Originally Posted by jd1020

Not sure why you are facepalming. You are asking why not pay him the same as someone who is much better. Or are you going to try and argue that Bowe = Fitzgerald/Megatron?

Bowe is as important to this team, or even more, than Fitz or CJ is to theirs.

[whoman69]

Originally Posted by BigRock

Sure. A friend of mine at a national publication planned to do an article on Bowe before the 2010 Pro Bowl. It didn't happen, but he thought I'd like the research data.

The stats are all straight from the NFL, the comparisions and such were his.



I think it's pretty clear that, in Bowe's first couple years, the majority of his stats (66% -- so nearly 70%) came while the team was behind. And aside from 2009, it's noted that most of those stats came with the team trailing by 10 or more.

And... I'm pretty sure that's what I said. Let me check.


Well, maybe a bit hyperbolic. Really, I hadn't looked at these numbers in quite a while. Given that, I'd say I summarized 'em pretty god damn accurately.

But had I known the Bowe derangement crew was going to seize on this as though disproving it would somehow magically validate their idea that Bowe's an elite receiver, I would have tipped you off to this little nugget: it's ****ing irrelevant. Who gives a shit? I just mentioned it as an example of how useless these stats are. It doesn't prove or disprove anything about Bowe.

What are you guys even doing? Quick, figure up what his stats would be in an alternate reality! Quick, try to disprove something totally meaningless about what the score was in 2007! Holy shit.

Has Bowe been in the league for five years? Yes. Has he only been great for one of those years? Yes. Then he's not elite, is he? No. It doesn't work that way.

You guys are working yourselves up into a needless tizzy and it's a complete waste of time. Bowe's very good. He's not elite. And he shouldn't have to be for Pioli to pay him. He's one of the two best offensive players we have. Pay the man. You can bury Pioli based on reality. You don't have to create a fantasy to manufacture outrage for your circle jerk. For ****'s sake over here.

And speaking of circle jerks, I'll thank you to stop talking about my dick while I'm not here. Bunch of weirdos.

Here's where the argument about him getting meaningless catches in garbage time is not valid. The Chiefs don't use the passing game to get ahead. They are a run first team. Additionally, in that time period the Chiefs in general have been crap so most of the time they were well behind in games.

[jd1020]

Originally Posted by Dave

Bowe is as important to this team, or even more, than Fitz or CJ is to theirs.

I'm failing to see your point.

[Chiefnj2]

Originally Posted by jd1020

He's looking for a big contract and you think he's going to slack off?

Yes. I think he misses much of camp barring a change in his 1 year deal.

[jd1020]

Originally Posted by Chiefnj2

Yes. I think he misses much of camp barring a change in his 1 year deal.

Oh no! Not camp!

[ThaVirus]

Has it actually been confirmed that he's asking for Fitzgerald/Calvin Johnson money?

[jd1020]

Originally Posted by ThaVirus

Has it actually been confirmed that he's asking for Fitzgerald/Calvin Johnson money?

Those are the 2 names that have been thrown out by Schefter in regards to the ballpark that Bowe is playing in. No one knows exact numbers but one can assume he's asking for roughly $50M based on Schefters words.

[Hammock Parties]

If you're going to consider "ahead or tied" production as "bro this dude is awesome," well check this out.

Megatron - 07 - 373 (49.3%)
Megatron - 08 - 237 (17.8%)
Megatron - 09 - 283 (28.7%)
Megatron - 10 - 334 (29.8%)
Megatron - 11 - 659 (39.25)

Bowe - 07 - 306 (30.7%)
Bowe - 08 - 405 (37.2%)
Bowe - 09 - 274 (46.5%)
Bowe - 10 - 734 (63.1%)
Bowe - 11 - 527 (45.4%)

Bowe is pretty much winning this argument. When compared to CALVIN JOHNSON.

And this kind of logic is way, way too simple.

It discounts stuff like what Bowe did last year against the Colts when we were down 28-0. Those weren't garbage yards.

We were down 19-0 against the Lions in 2007, so does that automatically mean Bowe's 97 yards were garbage? No, because it was 19-14 at halftime and a 2-point game in the 4th. Thanks to Bowe.