Chiefs *****The Patrick Mahomes Thread***** - Page 2166

Dante84 · 09:40 AM

IT ****ING HAPPENED

OP UPDATE:

Because of all the interest in this thread, I've place all of the video content of Patrick Mahomes II's college career, and draft day goodness into a single post that can be found here. Enjoy!

stevegroganfan · 01-27-2022, 09:44 AM

Those stats just seem faulty/not team specific especially the San Francisco game even though San Francisco had a very good defense, Chiefs still had explosive offense and turnovers by San Francisco always a possibility.

Against Bills given how good Chiefs offense was and how gassed Bills defense was with 13 seconds left, in game win percentage should probably only gone down to at worst 7-8%. Bills played those two last plays before FG horribly but coaching mistakes are always a possibility. But even with good coaching by Bills, Chiefs still had 2 plays to get into FG range and could have still made it.

I'd estimate 22% chance at getting into FG range given Chiefs had plenty of timeouts. (Once Chiefs had ball at 25 yard line, I'd estimate they had more than a 22% chance to get in range of a 62 yard or less FG but you don't know if Bills kicker does a long kickoff to the 5 yard line kind of really messing with Chiefs by taking time off clock on return.
So, lets say 75% shot at making the FG...obviously changes based upon distance. 55% shot at winning in OT if Chiefs hit a FG which changes based upon coin flip which Chiefs won. But also slight chance of winning in regulation on blown coverage.

And even under the scenario where Mahomes just gets 10-12 yards on one of the two plays the Chiefs had time to run, he would still have had the arm strength to throw a hail mary into the end zone to win the game outright without the need for overtime. Now I don't think Chiefs have the best Hail Mary receivers but Reid may be able to design something up to utilize KC's speed at wideout. I would give that hail mary pass alone a 6-7% chance of success via either catch of pass interference. A quick search says 9% of Haily Mary's have succeeded in the NFL...that seems high so I estimated lower there especially since Chiefs best receivers are not tall.

CupidStunt · 01-27-2022, 09:46 AM

^ I can only assume "in-game" excludes OT. Which is definitely weird.

But I don't think this game even factors in that, as the Bills' highest win percentage was 93%.

So IDK what the 3 wins are, or why there aren't 2 losses.

stevegroganfan · 01-27-2022, 09:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ThaVirus

The more I think about this, the more I'm going to need clarification.

You'd think in-game win probability for any loss would dip below 5% at some point. It just makes sense. We've got two postseason losses with Pat so technically it should be x-2, right?

I was thinking the one loss would have been the 2018 AFCCG but now I'm thinking it may have been the 2020 Tampa Bay Super Bowl..?

Idk, maybe I'm reading something wrong but this isn't adding up for me.

Tampa Bay SB it had to dip below 5% when Bucs won 31-9. Patriots game close enough that even when Patriots had the ball close to the end zone in OT, it did seem reasonable to give Chiefs higher than 5% odds of winning.

If Chiefs hold Patriots to FG, they can obviously score a TD and win it or a FG to tie it.

htismaqe · 01-27-2022, 09:50 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CupidStunt

^ I can only assume "in-game" excludes OT. Which is definitely weird.

But I don't think this game even factors in that, as the Bills' highest win percentage was 93%.

So IDK what the 3 wins are, or why there aren't 2 losses.

The Bills' highest win percentage was 96.3%

CupidStunt · 01-27-2022, 09:50 AM

I almost think they must've f'd it up. There's just no way the Chiefs had a 5% win prob in any other game.

Colts, Titans, 9ers, Browns, Bills AFCCG, Steelers. No way any of those games.

I only see 1 win w/ Houston, and should be 2 losses. Both for sure under 5%, unless again it doesn't include OT, which is ridiculous since they still run their model in OT. Pats went to 99.7% or something in OT.

WarChiefs89 · 01-27-2022, 09:54 AM

The end of the stat mentions "since 2018"... I assume they are using 2019 - today as the sample size

2019 - Houston / SF Wins after being sub 5% win prob
2020 - SB Loss... by default win probability dips below 5% at some point in a loss
2021 - Bills game

3-1 vs the rest of the league at 1 win...

stevegroganfan · 01-27-2022, 09:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CupidStunt

^ I can only assume "in-game" excludes OT. Which is definitely weird.

But I don't think this game even factors in that, as the Bills' highest win percentage was 93%.

So IDK what the 3 wins are, or why there aren't 2 losses.

There aren't 2 losses since until Chiefs lost to the patriots on that final play, the odds of Chiefs winning were higher than 5%. Make sense? The odds on that game probably went from like 8% chance Chiefs win to 0% chance. It wasn't like Patriots had the ball on the 1 foot line on first down.

Highest win percentage in Chiefs-Bills game at 93% does sound more reasonable than 95%. If I was setting odds in Vegas that is what I would have put it at before Bills kicked off with 13 seconds left.

**Lzen** · 01-27-2022, 09:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by UChieffyBugger

Ladies and gentlemen I present to you Tim Hasslebeck!!..HERE. The guy who LAST YEAR said "Allen is better than Mahomes and the Bills will win the AFC game"...and THIS YEAR again claimed the "Bills would win" on sunday but now that was put to rest he's still sucking on number 17's dick as usual smh!!..

These commentators, especially ESPN, are just idiots that are doubling down on being wrong. Josh had a great game but they're not taking into account the defense Patrick went up against. Until Allen does something of substance, he's not Patrick's equal.

htismaqe · 01-27-2022, 09:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by stevegroganfan

There aren't 2 losses since until Chiefs lost to the patriots on that final play, the odds of Chiefs winning were higher than 5%. Make sense? The odds on that game probably went from like 8% chance Chiefs win to 0% chance. It wasn't like Patriots had the ball on the 1 foot line on first down.

Highest win percentage in Chiefs-Bills game at 93% does sound more reasonable than 95%. If I was setting odds in Vegas that is what I would have put it at before Bills kicked off with 13 seconds left.

Again, at the :13 mark, the Chiefs win percentage was 3.7%

CupidStunt · 01-27-2022, 10:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by stevegroganfan

There aren't 2 losses since until Chiefs lost to the patriots on that final play, the odds of Chiefs winning were higher than 5%. Make sense? The odds on that game probably went from like 8% chance Chiefs win to 0% chance. It wasn't like Patriots had the ball on the 1 foot line on first down.

Makes sense but it's not true. The Pats were at 99.7% with the ball at the KC 2-yard line on 2nd down.

Quote:

Originally Posted by stevegroganfan

Highest win percentage in Chiefs-Bills game at 93% does sound more reasonable than 95%. If I was setting odds in Vegas that is what I would have put it at before Bills kicked off with 13 seconds left.

Someone else posted 96.3% which I've now seen, but the weird thing is you can't find that anywhere in the actual thing on the gamecast. Even with zooming in a ton. Or if you can, it's NOT easy. I wonder what exact point 96.3% was. Presumably right before they kicked off.

CupidStunt · 01-27-2022, 10:03 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by WarChiefs89

The end of the stat mentions "since 2018"... I assume they are using 2019 - today as the sample size

2019 - Houston / SF Wins after being sub 5% win prob
2020 - SB Loss... by default win probability dips below 5% at some point in a loss
2021 - Bills game

3-1 vs the rest of the league at 1 win...

That makes sense, so the Pats game is just excluded, but they should've just said that.

So who is the third WIN?

Texans - 1-0
Bills - 2-0
Bucs - 2-1
???

Chiefspants · 01-27-2022, 10:03 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ThaVirus

The more I think about this, the more I'm going to need clarification.

You'd think in-game win probability for any loss would dip below 5% at some point. It just makes sense. We've got two postseason losses with Pat so technically it should be x-2, right?

I was thinking the one loss would have been the 2018 AFCCG but now I'm thinking it may have been the 2020 Tampa Bay Super Bowl..?

Idk, maybe I'm reading something wrong but this isn't adding up for me.

Ah yeah, since 2019 has to be the confusing wordplay here. They must mean since the 2019 season.

Chiefspants · 01-27-2022, 10:05 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CupidStunt

That makes sense, so the Pats game is just excluded, but they should've just said that.

So who is the third WIN?

Texans - 1-0
Bills - 2-0
Bucs - 2-1
???

It's the 49ers. I just checked ESPN's gamecast. Tardiff's False Start before WASP moved the 49ers probability up to 95.3%.

CupidStunt · 01-27-2022, 10:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chiefspants

It's the 49ers. I just checked ESPN's gamecast. Tardiff's False Start before WASP moved the 49ers probability up to 95.3%.

Good call. I guess in hindsight I overlooked how grim it was.

(Literally no pun was intended when I wrote that. But as soon as I saw what I'd written...

)

**Lzen** · 01-27-2022, 11:02 AM

I'm sure it's been discussed but this is as good a place as any without starting a thread about it. Earlier in the season, Mahomes' passes were not always accurate. And some of those inaccurate passes may have been responsible for some of those interceptions. That is no longer a concern. I think there are multiple factors at play for why his pass accuracy has improved: he's gotten comfortable with his offensive line, he's learned to beat the 2 deep shell defense, his foot seems to be completely healed, and he trusts his receivers to not drop passes or fumble. All that nonsense earlier in the season about whether Mahomes was done was just that, nonsense. Man, we are so lucky to have this guy.

04-27-2017, 07:19 PM
Dante84 Tossed Salad & Scrambled Eggs Join Date: Jan 2009 Location: ATX & OPKS Casino cash: $1771996 VARSITY	***The Patrick Mahomes Thread* IT **ING HAPPENED OP UPDATE: Because of all the interest in this thread, I've place all of the video content of Patrick Mahomes II's college career, and draft day goodness into a single post that can be found here. Enjoy! Last edited by Dante84; 05-17-2017 at 09:40 AM..
Posts: 19,737

01-27-2022, 09:44 AM	#32476
stevegroganfan Starter Join Date: Jan 2019 Casino cash: $5470400	Those stats just seem faulty/not team specific especially the San Francisco game even though San Francisco had a very good defense, Chiefs still had explosive offense and turnovers by San Francisco always a possibility. Against Bills given how good Chiefs offense was and how gassed Bills defense was with 13 seconds left, in game win percentage should probably only gone down to at worst 7-8%. Bills played those two last plays before FG horribly but coaching mistakes are always a possibility. But even with good coaching by Bills, Chiefs still had 2 plays to get into FG range and could have still made it. I'd estimate 22% chance at getting into FG range given Chiefs had plenty of timeouts. (Once Chiefs had ball at 25 yard line, I'd estimate they had more than a 22% chance to get in range of a 62 yard or less FG but you don't know if Bills kicker does a long kickoff to the 5 yard line kind of really messing with Chiefs by taking time off clock on return. So, lets say 75% shot at making the FG...obviously changes based upon distance. 55% shot at winning in OT if Chiefs hit a FG which changes based upon coin flip which Chiefs won. But also slight chance of winning in regulation on blown coverage. And even under the scenario where Mahomes just gets 10-12 yards on one of the two plays the Chiefs had time to run, he would still have had the arm strength to throw a hail mary into the end zone to win the game outright without the need for overtime. Now I don't think Chiefs have the best Hail Mary receivers but Reid may be able to design something up to utilize KC's speed at wideout. I would give that hail mary pass alone a 6-7% chance of success via either catch of pass interference. A quick search says 9% of Haily Mary's have succeeded in the NFL...that seems high so I estimated lower there especially since Chiefs best receivers are not tall.
Posts: 572

01-27-2022, 09:46 AM	#32477
CupidStunt offense > defense Join Date: Jul 2005 Casino cash: $2513332	^ I can only assume "in-game" excludes OT. Which is definitely weird. But I don't think this game even factors in that, as the Bills' highest win percentage was 93%. So IDK what the 3 wins are, or why there aren't 2 losses.
Posts: 8,918

01-27-2022, 09:50 AM	#32480
CupidStunt offense > defense Join Date: Jul 2005 Casino cash: $2513332	I almost think they must've f'd it up. There's just no way the Chiefs had a 5% win prob in any other game. Colts, Titans, 9ers, Browns, Bills AFCCG, Steelers. No way any of those games. I only see 1 win w/ Houston, and should be 2 losses. Both for sure under 5%, unless again it doesn't include OT, which is ridiculous since they still run their model in OT. Pats went to 99.7% or something in OT.
Posts: 8,918

01-27-2022, 09:54 AM	#32481
WarChiefs89 Starter Join Date: Jan 2019 Casino cash: $9580365	The end of the stat mentions "since 2018"... I assume they are using 2019 - today as the sample size 2019 - Houston / SF Wins after being sub 5% win prob 2020 - SB Loss... by default win probability dips below 5% at some point in a loss 2021 - Bills game 3-1 vs the rest of the league at 1 win...
Posts: 45	1 0

01-27-2022, 11:02 AM	#32490
Lzen Supporter Join Date: Feb 2001 Location: Jan Quadrant Vincent 16 Casino cash: $2220692	I'm sure it's been discussed but this is as good a place as any without starting a thread about it. Earlier in the season, Mahomes' passes were not always accurate. And some of those inaccurate passes may have been responsible for some of those interceptions. That is no longer a concern. I think there are multiple factors at play for why his pass accuracy has improved: he's gotten comfortable with his offensive line, he's learned to beat the 2 deep shell defense, his foot seems to be completely healed, and he trusts his receivers to not drop passes or fumble. All that nonsense earlier in the season about whether Mahomes was done was just that, nonsense. Man, we are so lucky to have this guy. __________________ If at first you don't succeed ...skydiving is not for you.
Posts: 41,346