***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[Discuss Thrower]

Originally Posted by O.city

Based on?

The massive amounts of people who got C-19?

Unless, of course, there were hundreds of thousands of people globally who mysteriously avoided cold-related coronaviruses for the majority of their lives?

[dirk digler]

Originally Posted by Discuss Thrower

The massive amounts of people who got C-19?

Unless, of course, there were hundreds of thousands of people globally who mysteriously avoided cold-related coronaviruses for the majority of their lives?

I tend to agree with you. Who hasn't had a viral infection of some kind so the millions of people that have been infected by Covid, how does this explain them getting infected?

['Hamas' Jenkins]

Originally Posted by dirk digler

I tend to agree with you. Who hasn't had a viral infection of some kind so the millions of people that have been infected by Covid, how does this explain them getting infected?

Partial immunity due to antigen similarity. It's why flu vaccines are still helpful even if they don't completely prevent the illness.

[dirk digler]

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

Partial immunity due to antigen similarity. It's why flu vaccines are still helpful even if they don't completely prevent the illness.

I get that but everyone has had multiple colds so why wouldn't that slow down the infection rate if cross immunity existed?

[TLO]

Originally Posted by O.city

You mean antibody?

No. There is a diagnostic antigen test done with this...

https://www.quidel.com/immunoassays/...fia-2-analyzer

....and many other devices. Apparently they're fast and cheap - but I'm curious about the 85% accuracy.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by Discuss Thrower

The massive amounts of people who got C-19?

Unless, of course, there were hundreds of thousands of people globally who mysteriously avoided cold-related coronaviruses for the majority of their lives?

Well that’s gonna wane as you get older (thyroid function that is, which is where T cells are made)

There’s quite a few other explanations I suppose but again it would make sense why not every person on one of these cruise ships didn’t get it

And as Hamas said, would explain so many mild and asymptomatic cases

['Hamas' Jenkins]

Originally Posted by dirk digler

I get that but everyone has had multiple colds so why wouldn't that slow down the infection rate if cross immunity existed?

Because colds aren't caused just by coronaviruses. In fact, coronaviruses cause a decided minority of them. Adenoviruses and rhinoviruses are more common causes, and there are a litany of them.

['Hamas' Jenkins]

Originally Posted by O.city

Well that’s gonna wane as you get older (thyroid function that is, which is where T cells are made)

There’s quite a few other explanations I suppose but again it would make sense why not every person on one of these cruise ships didn’t get it

And as Hamas said, would explain so many mild and asymptomatic cases

T-cells mature in the thymus.

['Hamas' Jenkins]

FWIW, the science is not anywhere close to settled on this. There is theoretical evidence to support O. City's hypothesis, but we don't know enough to either confirm ideas or dismiss them out of hand, as Discuss Thrower is doing.

[dirk digler]

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

Because colds aren't caused just by coronaviruses. In fact, coronaviruses cause a decided minority of them. Adenoviruses and rhinoviruses are more common causes, and there are a litany of them.

Ok that makes sense and I didn’t know that. Thanks

[O.city]

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

T-cells mature in the thymus.

Yep, I knew that. Dunno why I said thyroid

[O.city]

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

FWIW, the science is not anywhere close to settled on this. There is theoretical evidence to support O. City's hypothesis, but we don't know enough to either confirm ideas or dismiss them out of hand, as Discuss Thrower is doing.

It seems to make sense to me. Maybe not.

But it would explain why curves go down so quick once say, 20% serological positives are hit in some spots even with people out and about and not have flare ups .

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by Discuss Thrower

The massive amounts of people who got C-19?

Unless, of course, there were hundreds of thousands of people globally who mysteriously avoided cold-related coronaviruses for the majority of their lives?

By massive amounts you mean < 1% of our population?

['Hamas' Jenkins]

Originally Posted by O.city

It seems to make sense to me. Maybe not.

But it would explain why curves go down so quick once say, 20% serological positives are hit in some spots even with people out and about and not have flare ups .

Do we have places where this has happened, though? Mask wearing tends to track an increase in cases pretty closely, so it's hard to determine a causal link. Also, given the increased morbidity and mortality that correlate directly with age, one would assume that the younger patients that develop COVID would have more severe symptoms as they do with other respiratory viruses, especially since in this case they would have less of an opportunity for partial immunity from past infections due to them being younger. The opposite would follow for middle-aged patients, as they still retain good immune function but would have more exposure.

I think we're firmly planted in the brainstorming phase here.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

Do we have places where this has happened, though? Mask wearing tends to track an increase in cases pretty closely, so it's hard to determine a causal link. Also, given the increased morbidity and mortality that correlate directly with age, one would assume that the younger patients that develop COVID would have more severe symptoms as they do with other respiratory viruses, especially since in this case they would have less of an opportunity for partial immunity from past infections due to them being younger. The opposite would follow for middle-aged patients, as they still retain good immune function but would have more exposure.

I think we're firmly planted in the brainstorming phase here.

Wouldn’t loss of T cell function woth age explain some of that?

Looking at Stockholm and how quick it’s come down the curve or atleast last I looked is weird to me seeing as they haven’t done much.

Definitely some overshoot with deaths and such if it gets into the elderly like in bergamo and New York