****The official NEW new conference realignment thread.****

[Saul Good]

the second thread has been pronounced dead.

[HolyHandgernade]

Originally Posted by Saul Good

If Florida State and Clemson leave, and the SEC wants to expand, Tech and State will likely be begging to leave. If Slive can say, "look guys, we're taking two more schools from your conference...do you want to be the school to join the SEC or get left behind?" It's a pretty compelling case.

Not if they have assurances from ESPN they will honor the ACC contract if they take some more basketball schools. UNC and UVA aren't interested in football. Sure, they would like to have the money, but its not where they really make their hay. I'm not saying its impossible, I just think NC St and V Tech are more likely.

[HolyHandgernade]

Originally Posted by eazyb81

Honest question: have you ever been to North Carolina?

If so, what in the world makes you think the culture of the state and its fans are more Midwest than Southern?

University leaders make these decision, but they need approval from fans or it will be a massive failure. UNC fans want absolutely nothing to do with a Midwestern Conference, losing all access to the Southeast region. The CIC is valuable, but it's not worth losing all sense of identity. UNC to the Big Ten makes no sense at all.

No, but I have been to Virginia. I also talk frequently with fans from UNC and most feel like they don't have much in common with the SEC schools. They feel like they would be marginalized, like Kentucky, in its value and importance. Further, UNC and UVA engage in much of the stem cell research associated with the huge CIC-B!G grants, and would be much more receptive to that possibility. The B!G places a higher value on its basketball and the BTN is comin up on its renewal with a projected higher take.

Look at the latest polling from the NC decision to ban same sex marraiges. If you look at it by county, it was rejected (the decision to ban them) where UNC is located. In fact, most of the counties that had large universities voted against it. So, I don't think UNC would have a problem with the B!G, especially if UVA and Maryland were going with them.

[Saul Good]

Originally Posted by HolyHandgernade

Not if they have assurances from ESPN they will honor the ACC contract if they take some more basketball schools. UNC and UVA aren't interested in football. Sure, they would like to have the money, but its not where they really make their hay. I'm not saying its impossible, I just think NC St and V Tech are more likely.

I guess I'm less optimistic that ESPN would honor their contact without Virginia Tech, Florida State, Clemson, or NC State.

[alnorth]

Originally Posted by HolyHandgernade

Not if they have assurances from ESPN they will honor the ACC contract if they take some more basketball schools. UNC and UVA aren't interested in football. Sure, they would like to have the money, but its not where they really make their hay. I'm not saying its impossible, I just think NC St and V Tech are more likely.

I would need to see that happen, before I believed ESPN would do that.

[alnorth]

Originally Posted by HolyHandgernade

Here's how I think it will eventually play out:

Big 12 adds FSU and Clemson

Big 12 comes to agreement with Notre Dame to phase them in completely by 2016 (Olympic sports until then)

Big 12 invites Louisville who gives the Big East their 27 month notice to avoid a penalty payment and sinc up with Notre Dame

SEC invites V Tech and NC St to be the first to 16, wants to increase TV market for their planned network while remaining a regional conference

Big 12 invites G Tech and Pitt to be the second to 16, both schools have historic ties to ND

I think you could have stopped here. The B1G has no reason at all to expand to 16, especially given the schools available, and their partner is staying at 12.

[eazyb81]

Originally Posted by HolyHandgernade

No, but I have been to Virginia. I also talk frequently with fans from UNC and most feel like they don't have much in common with the SEC schools. They feel like they would be marginalized, like Kentucky, in its value and importance. Further, UNC and UVA engage in much of the stem cell research associated with the huge CIC-B!G grants, and would be much more receptive to that possibility. The B!G places a higher value on its basketball and the BTN is comin up on its renewal with a projected higher take.

With the SEC Network, the conference will place a huge emphasis on overall athletic departments in the next stage of expansion because they need 12 months of content, not just August through December of football season. UNC has an outstanding athletic department that would provide a ton of value in basketball, baseball, etc.

North Carolina fans have been in the shadow of the SEC for years. They would love nothing more than to jump on the premier athletic conference located right in their backyard, instead of a Midwest conference that would require trips to Michigan, Ohio, Minnesota, etc.

Look at the latest polling from the NC decision to ban same sex marraiges. If you look at it by county, it was rejected (the decision to ban them) where UNC is located. In fact, most of the counties that had large universities voted against it. So, I don't think UNC would have a problem with the B!G, especially if UVA and Maryland were going with them.

[Saul Good]

Originally Posted by eazyb81

With the SEC Network, the conference will place a huge emphasis on overall athletic departments in the next stage of expansion because they need 12 months of content, not just August through December of football season. UNC has an outstanding athletic department that would provide a ton of value in basketball, baseball, etc.

North Carolina fans have been in the shadow of the SEC for years. They would love nothing more than to jump on the premier athletic conference located right in their backyard, instead of a Midwest conference that would require trips to Michigan, Ohio, Minnesota, etc.

Take it for what it's worth, HH, but if you want to improve the accuracy of your predictions this time around,
you might think about avoiding making predictions that require such bizarre logical contortions.

[HolyHandgernade]

Originally Posted by Saul Good

Take it for what it's worth, HH, but if you want to improve the accuracy of your predictions this time around,
you might think about avoiding making predictions that require such bizarre logical contortions.

I really don't know what the fascination is with the accuracy of speculations. I mean, if I was claiming inside sources and such, then I suppose it would have some relevance. You guys act like my actual career depends on it or that I have some need of strangers' approval.

[HolyHandgernade]

Originally Posted by alnorth

I think you could have stopped here. The B1G has no reason at all to expand to 16, especially given the schools available, and their partner is staying at 12.

Where I would disagree is that the B!G is just as concerned with market growth, especially for their network, where they make a great deal of money from the setup. Add to that the fact the commissioner said that if they were to expand, they would want to look at areas where the population is increasing, the west and the south. The west is unlikely which makes the South the better target. And if you include the DC area market among that, all the better.

The B!G is more concerned with how they compete in their half of the country against the SEC, more so than the PAC alliance. If both the SEC and Big 12 move to 16, and I'm not saying they will (only speculating it), I don't see the B!G not responding, especially when they can add 4 AAU schools.

[HolyHandgernade]

Originally Posted by eazyb81

With the SEC Network, the conference will place a huge emphasis on overall athletic departments in the next stage of expansion because they need 12 months of content, not just August through December of football season. UNC has an outstanding athletic department that would provide a ton of value in basketball, baseball, etc.

North Carolina fans have been in the shadow of the SEC for years. They would love nothing more than to jump on the premier athletic conference located right in their backyard, instead of a Midwest conference that would require trips to Michigan, Ohio, Minnesota, etc.

Like I noted, the motivations of the schools may be different. The B!G is the better academic conference, it can offer as much athletics money, it can offer more in academics money, and its basketball is better on the whole. The B!G is more established in these secondary sports already and when the ACC chose a basketball partner for their showdown, it was the B!G. So, opinions differ.

[HolyHandgernade]

Originally Posted by Saul Good

I guess I'm less optimistic that ESPN would honor their contact without Virginia Tech, Florida State, Clemson, or NC State.

It doesn't have to because only FSU and Clemson would be gone at that time. The SEC is trying to play inclusion over the other two possibilities. So, you've made an exclusionary vacuum. If the SEC tries to do this, UNC and UVA are going to gauge the B!G's reaction first.

"If the SEC follows through with taking NC St and VT, would the B!G be interested in adding UNC and UVA?"

If the answer is yes, they'll call the SEC and see what they do. If they follow through, they'll go to the B!G. If the answer is no, then perhaps they make that jump. I didn't say either scenario would happen, I'm just speculating what I think is more probable, and I think UVA and UNC to the B!G is more probable than to the SEC.

[Setsuna]

The Big XII is not getting all the best football teams in the ACC. That shit won't happen. If anything the SEC should take Clemson and VaTech.

[HolyHandgernade]

Originally Posted by Setsuna

The Big XII is not getting all the best football teams in the ACC. That shit won't happen. If anything the SEC should take Clemson and VaTech.

The SEC doesn't want Clemson because they already have South Carolina and they are looking to expand their footprint if they decide to expand at all.

If you haven't been following, both FSU and Clemson are interested in the Big 12, so that shit may very well be happening.

[ArrowheadHawk]

[alnorth]

Originally Posted by Setsuna

The Big XII is not getting all the best football teams in the ACC. That shit won't happen. If anything the SEC should take Clemson and VaTech.

You apparently are unaware of the UF-UG-USC alliance. (I'm not joking) There are 3 SEC teams who have banded together, promising to vote against inviting FSU, GT, or Clemson. The SEC is not an option unless for some reason Slive wants them and he breaks some heads to get his way.

Since the SEC is going the conference network route rather than going all-in on tier 1/2 value (not that they need any help at all there), he probably wouldn't want them anyway.