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Old 11-12-2013, 03:09 PM  
Saul Good Saul Good is offline
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****The Official NEW new new conference realignment & shit talk thread****
Let's do it.
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Old 12-03-2013, 09:24 AM   #676
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Originally Posted by ILChief View Post
Espn is trying their damnest to get Alabama in the title game


http://espn.go.com/ncf/notebook/_/pa...nal-title-game

Quote:
ROLL TIDE (again)

Florida State vs. Alabama

If Ohio State and Auburn both lose their respective championship games, could Alabama emerge? The Crimson Tide fell to No. 4 in the BCS standings after losing to the Tigers on Saturday, but might they get the benefit of doubt from voters after losing on such a fluke play? Would Alabama remain ahead of Missouri, even if the Tigers win the SEC title? The Crimson Tide had won 15 consecutive games before falling in the Iron Bowl. And there's precedent: Alabama won the 2011 BCS national championship after failing to win the SEC West. The Crimson Tide lost to LSU 9-6 in overtime during the regular season, but then reached the BCS title game after Oklahoma State lost at Iowa State late in the season. The Crimson Tide defeated LSU 21-0 in New Orleans to win the national title.
what a frickin joke...
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Old 12-03-2013, 09:26 AM   #677
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Just when I think you can't outdo stupid, you do it again Saul. The PAC is the best conf in football that's why the data is what it is. ASU aint beating up on the weak sisters of the SEC-E.


Not going to argue about computers with people who don't understand the topic. Statisticians retrofit the data to line up with actual results it's extremely accurate, just like polling data is.
Nothing says "sound statistical analysis" like reverse engineering formulas to give you your predetermined result. Tell me you believe that Arizona State is the third best team in the country. Tell me they are better than Alabama. Tell me that 8-4 Washington...a team with three double digit losses (including 21 & 29 point blowouts)...is better than all but eleven teams.

Prison Bitch in DC: You can't trust those computers that show global warming to be a global threat.

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Old 12-03-2013, 09:41 AM   #678
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Originally Posted by Prison Bitch View Post
Just when I think you can't outdo stupid, you do it again Saul. The PAC is the best conf in football that's why the data is what it is. ASU aint beating up on the weak sisters of the SEC-E.


Not going to argue about computers with people who don't understand the topic. Statisticians retrofit the data to line up with actual results it's extremely accurate, just like polling data is.
There's no shame in losing at Stanford but losing to Notre Dame is pretty bad and considering it's a second loss should keep any team from being ranked that high. The other thing about ASU is that they won a game they shouldn't have won (Wisc) which is inflating their #'s. If I had a vote I'd be taking that into consideration ranking them.

As for Wash they got hammered in all but one of their losses and don't really have any marquee wins. Looking at their schedule losing to a bunch of good teams is probably driving them being ranked higher than they ought be.

It's nothing I haven't said before. I like computer polls, they take bias out and make you think about teams maybe a little differently than you would otherwise but they're just a tool, there isn't one that exists that's perfect. ASU & Wash highlight that. Marrying yourself to those results regardless can paint you into a corner.
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Old 12-03-2013, 09:45 AM   #679
warpaint* warpaint* is offline
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Originally Posted by Jerm View Post
It's just speculation which isn't completely out of left field considering they are still ahead of us this week.

That said if MU wins they will jump Bammer. I think it is a virtual certainty, they are ahead of us by a pretty slim margin.
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Old 12-03-2013, 09:48 AM   #680
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Originally Posted by warpaint* View Post
It's just speculation which isn't completely out of left field considering they are still ahead of us this week.

That said if MU wins they will jump Bammer. I think it is a virtual certainty, they are ahead of us by a pretty slim margin.
...

Your concessions amuse me not.

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Old 12-03-2013, 09:51 AM   #681
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Originally Posted by warpaint* View Post
It's just speculation which isn't completely out of left field considering they are still ahead of us this week.

That said if MU wins they will jump Bammer. I think it is a virtual certainty, they are ahead of us by a pretty slim margin.
Not at all. I think it is all for not because the other teams will win but if OSU loses and Missouri wins Mizzou will be lining up for a national championship.
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Old 12-03-2013, 10:01 AM   #682
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Prison Bitch in DC: You can't trust those computers that show global warming to be a global threat.

Prison Bitch in the lounge: The computers are gospel.
Hilarious stuff right here. You're now reduced to making things up. I guess that's all you've got left. I'm fascinated though to find out more about my views on global warming so don't leave me hanging!
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Old 12-03-2013, 10:09 AM   #683
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Originally Posted by warpaint* View Post
There's no shame in losing at Stanford but losing to Notre Dame is pretty bad and considering it's a second loss should keep any team from being ranked that high. The other thing about ASU is that they won a game they shouldn't have won (Wisc) which is inflating their #'s. If I had a vote I'd be taking that into consideration ranking them.

As for Wash they got hammered in all but one of their losses and don't really have any marquee wins. Looking at their schedule losing to a bunch of good teams is probably driving them being ranked higher than they ought be.

It's nothing I haven't said before. I like computer polls, they take bias out and make you think about teams maybe a little differently than you would otherwise but they're just a tool, there isn't one that exists that's perfect. ASU & Wash highlight that. Marrying yourself to those results regardless can paint you into a corner.

You can look at Vegas lines as well, they too are extremely accurate. I don't discuss them very often because they're on a game basis and not a composite rank. For these discussion here and on TV studios computers should be given 90% weight and polls 10% at most. Computers and Vegas utterly annihilate polls in predictive ability and the research is crystal clear on that.



If anyone thinks polls are accurate, just watch the Heisman ceremony. See the regional vote breakdown. Laugh when you see the blatant bias. Why would people trust their team voting any better?
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Old 12-03-2013, 10:44 AM   #684
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Vegas lines are rarely "right". They are simply good at missing each direction an equal number of times over the long run. Computers are the same way. If you take everything in aggregate, they tend to be correct. In the short term, they are extremely unreliable because they are susceptible to outliers (Washington, Arizona State, etc.).

Relying on them to be accurate on an individual basis is about as smart as flipping a coin ten times and, when it comes up heads seven times, declaring that heads is definitively a more likely outcome in coin flips.

Computer models sacrifice accuracy for precision. Even in the long term (especially in the long term), this is true. If it weren't true, the computers would agree with one another.
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Old 12-03-2013, 10:53 AM   #685
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If Auburn is higher in the BCS rankings and is passed over for an at-large bid, then it would be similar. Since that isn't going to happen, they aren't.
They are higher than Alabama, beat them and won that division. In your mind that proves they are better. In the minds of Vegas they'd be 10 point dogs if they replayed it. I'll take their opinion over yours no offense.
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Old 12-03-2013, 11:09 AM   #686
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They are higher than Alabama, beat them and won that division. In your mind that proves they are better. In the minds of Vegas they'd be 10 point dogs if they replayed it. I'll take their opinion over yours no offense.
If Auburn loses to Mizzou, they will be ranked higher than Alabama? Interesting.
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Old 12-03-2013, 11:11 AM   #687
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Prison Bitch. Not holding up well in this thread.
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Old 12-03-2013, 11:17 AM   #688
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Not as exciting or epic as KU winning their first confernce game since Colorado./ PB and Wickedson
Why the **** are you bringing me up?

Get a life man.
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Old 12-03-2013, 11:27 AM   #689
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Why the **** are you bringing me up?

Get a life man.
Perhaps the 2,000 posts you have in the realignment threads have something to do with it.
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Old 12-03-2013, 11:35 AM   #690
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Perhaps the 2,000 posts you have in the realignment threads have something to do with it.
huh? Comparing KU and MU celebrations? Believe me, I've had plenty to celebrate in my life as a KU fan. Good to see you guys getting some at last.
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