Let's talk about the Patriots

[cmh6476]

too soon?

[RollChiefsRoll]

Originally Posted by T-post Tom

Translation for all you Chiefs' fans that aren't getting "amoeba" defense:


"amoeba" defense = Jesse Haynes

Holy shit, LOL

[eDave]

Originally Posted by htismaqe

You didn't look then. Either that, or you can't read.

No, he's right.

[Beef Supreme]

at Whamblock coming in here thinking he is teaching people something. Did you just learn the term amoeba defense? You're so smaht, and edgy.

[Mecca]

Basically if you play them on D the way Tennessee did you'll make Brady super uncomfortable. You show disguise with your blitzes so they are confused and you don't allow them to clear you out for easy yards. That's where they move the ball, clearing you out and dumping it to the back.

Basically dare Brady to take the deeper play and not let him keep dumping it. There's some video from the Titans game of their safeties, Vacarro especially just keying and exploding on White.

Even Edelman got his in the Titans game but that wasn' t enough, don't let them clear you out so Brady can keep checking for 7 yards and you take away a ton of that offense.

[htismaqe]

Originally Posted by T-post Tom

Translation for all you Chiefs' fans that aren't getting "amoeba" defense:


"amoeba" defense = Jesse Haynes

[htismaqe]

Originally Posted by eDave

No, he's right.

Don't make me beat you down, Dave. LOL

[Direckshun]

Walter Football:

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: Andy Reid doesn't have the playoff success that Bill Belichick has - who does? - but his offense has won against Belichick's defense of late. In their previous four matchups against each other, Reid's offense has posted 40 or more points on three occasions, and two of those outputs were with Alex Smith at quarterback. Reid has always been able to get the most out of his quarterbacks, which is how he was able to get a mediocre signal-caller like Smith to play very well at times. Now, he has the best talent he's ever coached, which would explain why Patrick Mahomes has been on an MVP level this year.

I expected Mahomes to struggle a bit in the first matchup against the Patriots because he was playing in Foxboro and seeing Belichick for the first time. Mahomes made mistakes in the opening half, but was unstoppable following intermission. He was 9-of-13 for 186 yards and four touchdowns in the second half of that game. The Patriots' bewildered defense had no answer for him, and I don't see why anything would change. New England dismantled the Chargers' offense, but San Angeles is a stupid, poorly coached team, and Belichick had the luxury of having an extra week to prepare for Philip Rivers. He'll have no such advantage against the Chiefs, and he won't be at home this time.

Mahomes will torch the Patriots, who have the third-worst pass rush in the NFL, according to adjusted sack rate. Meanwhile, Damien Williams will blow by the New England defenders. The Patriots have been horrible against the run for most of the season. Williams has been a tremendous replacement for Kareem Hunt, and he should continue to dominate the opposition in what looks to be a much easier matchup for him than last week.

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: Tom Brady was able to outduel Mahomes in the Week 6 battle between these teams, going 24-of-35 for 340 yards and a touchdown. The Patriots had a big lead, but lost it when Mahomes was on fire in the second half. However, Brady was able to put together one final drive to give New England the three-point victory.

This occurred at home, however. Brady has been a far different quarterback at home versus on the road in his career, and that even applies to the playoffs. I'll get to the specifics later, but Tony Romo even said it last week. Brady is able to do all of the little things at home that he can't do as a visitor. At 41, Brady needs those advantages, and he won't get them at Arrowhead - especially with Kansas City's unbelievable pass rush bearing down on him. The Colts have the best offensive line in the NFL, yet the Chiefs were able to hound Andrew Luck last week, thanks to Dee Ford, Justin Houston and Chris Jones.

The Chiefs actually have a sound pass defense because of their front seven - they're 12th in DVOA aerial defense - but they happen to be especially weak against the run. Provided they're not down big, the Patriots will be able to run successfully with Sony Michel, though it's worth noting that Kansas City did a great job of putting the clamps on Marlon Mack last week. It remains to be seen if this was a fluky, one-time performance, or if Reid and defensive coordinator Bob Sutton were able to make some brilliant adjustments during their playoff bye week.

RECAP: I said I'd get to Brady's home-road dichotomy earlier, so here it is. As we all know, Brady and Belichick have a ridiculous amount of success in the playoffs. They've been in the Super Bowl eight times, for crying out loud. However, most of these occasions have occurred when they've had home-field advantage. Check out how the Patriots have fared in road playoff games throughout Brady's career:




Since his third Super Bowl victory, Brady is just 1-4 straight up and against the spread in road playoff games, with his only victory coming against Philip Rivers, who was making his first ever postseason start in that game. Brady's road troubles continued into this season. Think back to how the Patriots have fared as visitors this year. They've had just one good win, which was a game against the Bears in which Mitchell Trubisky made lots of mistakes. Otherwise, the Patriots lost to the Jaguars on the road. The Patriots lost to the Lions on the road. The Patriots lost to the Dolphins on the road. The Patriots lost to the Steelers on the road. The Patriots beat the Jets and Bills on the road, but both games were close, and neither starting quarterback was available for New York or Buffalo in those games.

With the Patriots clearly not being the same team at home, and Kansas City being the superior squad, that begs the question, why is this line only Kansas City -3? It doesn't make much sense to me. My calculated line for this game is Kansas City -5. The DVOA numbers say this spread should be Kansas City -6.5! The computer model isn't as optimistic, but still lists Kansas City at -4.

This number is way short, and it's not even a full -3! It's -3 -105 at BetUS, 5Dimes and Bovada. That seems absurd to me. However, the public just saw the Patriots utterly obliterate the Chargers at home, so casual bettors will undoubtedly jump on New England as the week progresses. I suppose that's the reason why this line is so short.

Let's take advantage of it! The sharps haven't touched either side yet, but I believe they'll be on the Chiefs. I want to bet Kansas City before the pros wager on them and potentially drive this line (or juice) up, so I'm going to lock this pick in now. Chiefs for five units.

[RollChiefsRoll]

But AMOEBA FORMATIONS

[WhamBlock]

Originally Posted by chiefzilla1501

The ravens run it better than anyone. Mahomes was frustrated at times but he was more successful than most qbs against it. Seahawks do it too. So mahomes and Reid have both seen it and I'm sure are addressing it. But even if mahomes misreads it, he's lethal at reading and reacting to things post snap, and improvising out of it. It's a factor. Maybe it impacts a few plays. But it's not some front that worries me as game changing.

I haven't seen the Seahawks using it this season.

The Ravens game is an interesting one though, because KC's offense had arguably one of its worst games of the season, especially if you consider only the home games. The Ravens definitely use the that defense, and they also have a very similar method of scheming pressure - a lot of disguised blitzes and DL stunts.

In week 6, we mixed up our coverages between Cover 1 and Cover 3, with some Cover 0 amoeba looks in the 1st half, and it did confuse Mahomes. The Chiefs only had 9 points in the 1st half. In the 2nd half we went to more of a Cover 2 defense to prevent the big play (although not exclusively Cover 2.) I don't like that coverage at all against Mahomes, and unsurprisingly he shredded it, just as he did last week against Indy. I'm willing to bet that we will be more aggressive for a longer period this time around, with a similar gameplan we used in the 1st half, along with some new wrinkles.

[RobertWeathers]

Originally Posted by WhamBlock

I haven't seen the Seahawks using it this season.

The Ravens game is an interesting one though, because KC's offense had arguably one of its worst games of the season, especially if you consider only the home games. The Ravens definitely use the that defense, and they also have a very similar method of scheming pressure - a lot of disguised blitzes and DL stunts.

In week 6, we mixed up our coverages between Cover 1 and Cover 3, with some Cover 0 amoeba looks in the 1st half, and it did confuse Mahomes. The Chiefs only had 9 points in the 1st half. In the 2nd half we went to more of a Cover 2 defense to prevent the big play (although not exclusively Cover 2.) I don't like that coverage at all against Mahomes, and unsurprisingly he shredded it, just as he did last week against Indy. I'm willing to bet that we will be more aggressive for a longer period this time around, with a similar gameplan we used in the 1st half, along with some new wrinkles.

Agree. If Flo goes to a soft C2 in the 2nd 1/2 again I'm gonna lose it. With that said our man game is much better than it was in W6 with JC on the other side of Gilly.

[Iowanian]

Originally Posted by 203Pat

In the end of the day you can only play who’s on the schedule.

You're right.

That's why you and the other Tongue chewers who can't say the letter R like a hair lip need to pay attention. The Chiefs had a more difficult schedule than the Pats and ended the regular season with a better record versus more difficult competition.

The Chiefs are going to Put a gallon of HUNTS Ketchup in your chowder.

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[Iowanian]

Originally Posted by WhamBlock

That's about the level of football knowledge I expected from Chiefs fans.

You're the kind of guy that was in here 2 decades ago and couldn't answer a simple question about an H back.

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[IowaHawkeyeChief]

Originally Posted by WhamBlock

I haven't seen the Seahawks using it this season.

The Ravens game is an interesting one though, because KC's offense had arguably one of its worst games of the season, especially if you consider only the home games. The Ravens definitely use the that defense, and they also have a very similar method of scheming pressure - a lot of disguised blitzes and DL stunts.

In week 6, we mixed up our coverages between Cover 1 and Cover 3, with some Cover 0 amoeba looks in the 1st half, and it did confuse Mahomes. The Chiefs only had 9 points in the 1st half. In the 2nd half we went to more of a Cover 2 defense to prevent the big play (although not exclusively Cover 2.) I don't like that coverage at all against Mahomes, and unsurprisingly he shredded it, just as he did last week against Indy. I'm willing to bet that we will be more aggressive for a longer period this time around, with a similar gameplan we used in the 1st half, along with some new wrinkles.

The Ravens game is a poor example. We had just cut Kareem Hunt, Watkins was out, we had our O-line banged up badly, Tyreek hurt his heel early in the game and was hobble for this game and the Chargers game...we still scored 27. We are fully healthy on O now...

[WhamBlock]

Originally Posted by RobertWeathers

Agree. If Flo goes to a soft C2 in the 2nd 1/2 again I'm gonna lose it. With that said our man game is much better than it was in W6 with JC on the other side of Gilly.

JC's speed is going to pay dividends against Hill. He will obviously have safety help over the top, but he will matchup against Hill much better than JMac did.

[Iowanian]

Originally Posted by WhamBlock

JC's speed is going to pay dividends against Hill. He will obviously have safety help over the top, but he will matchup against Hill much better than JMac did.

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