Crow's 2022 "What I Want" Mock Draft

[Chief Roundup]

I am sure that you realize that the pick value does not line up according to several charts for that move to the top.

[kccrow]

Originally Posted by Chief Roundup

I am sure that you realize that the pick value does not line up according to several charts for that move to the top.

The NFL hasn't used the old Jimmy Johnson charts you're referencing in over a decade. They use charts very near the Rich Hill model. And if you look at that, it does line up. So does every other trade made in recent history.

[Titty Meat]

I got Chris Jones vibes when I read Pinfreys scouting report

[kcbubb]

Did y’all see the presser? He acted like moving up higher than 21 was unlikely. He said 16-18 1st round grades and he didn’t anticipate moving up to top ten but moving to up to 21 if one of those 1st round graded guys fell could be possible. Is he lying? I don’t know. But it does seem like moving up to 6 is unlikely.

Here’s the press conf.
https://youtu.be/GaYkjD0Js1U

[kccrow]

Originally Posted by kcbubb

Did y’all see the presser? He acted like moving up higher than 21 was unlikely. He said 16-18 1st round grades and he didn’t anticipate moving up to top ten but moving to up to 21 if one of those 1st round graded guys fell could be possible. Is he lying? I don’t know. But it does seem like moving up to 6 is unlikely.

Here’s the press conf.
https://youtu.be/GaYkjD0Js1U

Yeah, but I don't put much stock in what he, or any GM, says at this point.

He very well could be telling the truth, especially on the 16-18 1st round grades, but you also factor in needs and fits along with those grades and you're likely down to about 12. As for moving up to 6, yeah he probably doesn't "anticipate" doing it because the trade isn't in a vacuum. Players have to fall and their offer has to beat other teams' offers. I'm sure he has an amount he's willing to spend to get to specific spots and that's it. He certainly didn't rule out trading into the top 10. I'd venture if a specific player or two don't fall to a certain spot, like Thibs or Hutch falling to 6, then he's comfortable seeing if Johnson or Karlaftis falls to the 20/21 area, and if that' don't happen then he'll sit tight and take whats there.

[chiefforlife]

Originally Posted by kccrow

Yeah, but I don't put much stock in what he, or any GM, says at this point.

He very well could be telling the truth, especially on the 16-18 1st round grades, but you also factor in needs and fits along with those grades and you're likely down to about 12. As for moving up to 6, yeah he probably doesn't "anticipate" doing it because the trade isn't in a vacuum. Players have to fall and their offer has to beat other teams' offers. I'm sure he has an amount he's willing to spend to get to specific spots and that's it. He certainly didn't rule out trading into the top 10. I'd venture if a specific player or two don't fall to a certain spot, like Thibs or Hutch falling to 6, then he's comfortable seeing if Johnson or Karlaftis falls to the 20/21 area, and if that' don't happen then he'll sit tight and take whats there.

I think this is spot on!

[mkp785]

Originally Posted by kccrow

Yeah, but I don't put much stock in what he, or any GM, says at this point.

He very well could be telling the truth, especially on the 16-18 1st round grades, but you also factor in needs and fits along with those grades and you're likely down to about 12. As for moving up to 6, yeah he probably doesn't "anticipate" doing it because the trade isn't in a vacuum. Players have to fall and their offer has to beat other teams' offers. I'm sure he has an amount he's willing to spend to get to specific spots and that's it. He certainly didn't rule out trading into the top 10. I'd venture if a specific player or two don't fall to a certain spot, like Thibs or Hutch falling to 6, then he's comfortable seeing if Johnson or Karlaftis falls to the 20/21 area, and if that' don't happen then he'll sit tight and take whats there.

I mean yeah.

Why would he broadcast a desire to move to the top 10? You give your competitors an idea what you're thinking and let teams (Carolina) know that you want up, so they can squeeze you for more picks. Not to mention that if he moves up, it's probably for Thibs so you need to see if the Jets take him at 4 or the Giants even.

If Veach's moving up, we won't know till that team is on the clock and he can make the phone call.

[Stryker]

Ok, I LOVE THIS! I feel like it is a GO BIG or GO HOME draft you present and I am fully on board!

[kccrow]

Some news that Alec Pierce is getting alot of interest from Chicago (48) and Green Bay (53). I think I read it from Pauline. Anyhow, I don't know if I could quite bring myself to consider him at 50, and that's if he's even still there.

I do like Metchie at that spot... hmm.

Also picked up this little nugget in an article on Danny Gray that outlines WR stats from '21.

[The Franchise]

That 12.5% drop rate is a little much. Jesus.

That may be because of who their QB was but still.

[kccrow]

Originally Posted by The Franchise

That 12.5% drop rate is a little much. Jesus.

That may be because of who their QB was but still.

Yeah, not ideal.

Burks and London with all that time in the slot is concerning for two of the bigger WRs in the draft. Also corresponds well with low depth of target numbers.

Burks and Williams on contested catches are underwhelming, for sure.

Watson's combined catch percentage and drop rate are meh.

I do really like a lot about Olave, sans the YAC. Also really like Metchie. Both win outside, both win contested. Metchie with the good YAC, Olave with the good DOT. Olave on the outside and Metchie in the slot would be a dreamy scenario for me.

[The Franchise]

Originally Posted by kccrow

Yeah, not ideal.

Burks and London with all that time in the slot is concerning for two of the bigger WRs in the draft. Also corresponds well with low depth of target numbers.

Burks and Williams on contested catches are underwhelming, for sure.

Watson's combined catch percentage and drop rate are meh.

I do really like a lot about Olave, sans the YAC. Also really like Metchie. Both win outside, both win contested. Metchie with the good YAC, Olave with the good DOT. Olave on the outside and Metchie in the slot would be a dreamy scenario for me.

I'm hoping we get one of Metchie, Tolbert or Pierce.

[DJ's left nut]

For posterity's sake:

29: George Karlaftis -- Set and forget strong-side DE

30: Nakobe Dean -- Excellent WLB and complementary pass-rusher with elite range and developing ball skills.

50: John Metchie -- Outstanding combination of upside and floor. Very versatile; could be a very good X with his physicality but also has the athleticism to play as a Z. Ultimately just a very nice piece that can move as needed as other pieces fall into place.

62: Drake Jackson -- Have warmed to him throughout the draft process. Plus athleticism and bend, good length and has added some weight to make up for some of my pre-combine concerns. Additionally would be a very strong complement to Karlaftis.

94: Calvin Austin -- My sweet baboo and if you don't love him you're wrong and **** you.

103: Zyon McCollum -- SCREAMS Brett Veach pick. Measurables and size, competition concerns and technique lapses will push him a bit but as raw clay, they don't get much better than this.

121: Matthew Butler -- Just hard to see him not being a quality NFL player. He won't be a difference maker, but I think he has a nice career.

135: JT Woods -- Like McCollum, a measurables/talent pick. And like McCollum, put up some unreal testing numbers. We can afford to work him in slowly with Thornhill and Reid already under control this year. Can be a significant ST contributor in the interim.


If I were sitting at 121, I might flip the order of those last 2 picks thinking maybe Woods will be less likely than Butler to be there at 135. Hard to know without seeing the board.

[kccrow]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

For posterity's sake:

29: George Karlaftis -- Set and forget strong-side DE

30: Nakobe Dean -- Excellent WLB and complementary pass-rusher with elite range and developing ball skills.

50: Robert Metchie -- Outstanding combination of upside and floor. Very versatile; could be a very good X with his physicality but also has the athleticism to play as a Z. Ultimately just a very nice piece that can move as needed as other pieces fall into place.

62: Drake Jackson -- Have warmed to him throughout the draft process. Plus athleticism and bend, good length and has added some weight to make up for some of my pre-combine concerns. Additionally would be a very strong complement to Karlaftis.

94: Calvin Austin -- My sweet baboo and if you don't love him you're wrong and **** you.

103: Zyon McCollum -- SCREAMS Brett Veach pick. Measurables and size, competition concerns and technique lapses will push him a bit but as raw clay, they don't get much better than this.

121: Matthew Butler -- Just hard to see him not being a quality NFL player. He won't be a difference maker, but I think he has a nice career.

135: JT Woods -- Like McCollum, a measurables/talent pick. And like McCollum, put up some unreal testing numbers. We can afford to work him in slowly with Thornhill and Reid already under control this year. Can be a significant ST contributor in the interim.


If I were sitting at 121, I might flip the order of those last 2 picks thinking maybe Woods will be less likely than Butler to be there at 135. Hard to know without seeing the board.

I have a hard time envisioning Karlaftis falls all the way to 29 but you never know. I think Metchie is a massive reach at 50. The guys on NFLN were talking about him as a late 2nd if he didn't have the injury but probably a late 3rd to early 4th post-injury. I don't know if I'd expect him to be quite there at 94 but no way I'd go for him at 50 and I don't know if I could do it at 62 but maybe if there were a strong run and I'm staring at that next tier down.

If I were doing something for sitting on our ass being reactive, it'd look like this:
1-29 | ER Arnold Ebiketie, Penn State - Explosive and has long enough arms to be effective despite his lack of overall length.
1-30 | CB Kyler Gordon, Washington - One of the best press-man corners in the draft.
2-50 | DL Perrion Winfrey, Oklahoma - I really like this kid, very explosive. Would try him at SDE before deciding if he should move inside.
2-62 | WR Alec Pierce, Cincinnati - I like the upside he shows as a potential X receiver. I'd imagine MVS is going to fill the Z role so I don't know if I'm looking for a move guy here unless he projects well to the slot. I wouldn't mind Tolbert or Watson here. Shade early for Metchie for me but maybe if the pickings are getting slim.
3-94 | LB Brian Asamoah, Oklahoma - Tons of athleticism, very rangy, excels in space and I think will be a hell of a good WLB.
3-103 | SS Tycen Anderson, Toledo - Very athletic, even better 3-cone than Woods and same 40. Safe more than he is aggressive but that's not always bad. Not the type of kid that's likely to get burned but may not be a big-play factory either.
4-121 | OT Braxton Jones, Southern Utah - Chiefs have to get a tackle prospect before the end of the 4th, without a doubt. I'm super-high on Jones' upside.
4-135 | RB Pierre Strong, Jr., South Dakota State - Just a playmaker from the RB spot and would inject some serious speed there.
6-200 | RB(WR) Tyler Goodson, Iowa (f/NE) - Would still make a move for this kid as future slot. I love how much Iowa split him wide and how effective that was. Better WR prospect than RB prospect IMO.
7-251 | CB/FS Nazeeh Johnson, Marshall - Athletic as hell and gets his hands on the ball, good nickel.
7-259 | DT Dion Novil, North Texas - If I get a LB early, less inclined to go LB again late and would probably opt for a shot on a D-Lineman of one type or another. I like Novil as a rotational NT.

[duncan_idaho]

You spelled Metchie s name wrong. I love it except for Dean.


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