How good are the Chiefs chances at the AFC's #1 seed?

[MMXcalibur]

Updated: 12/19

Teams that actually matter in this conversation:

Kansas City (10-4) (vs PIT, at CIN, at DEN)

New England (9-5) (vs BUF, vs JAC, at MIA)

Tennessee (9-5) (vs SF, vs MIA, at HOU)

Baltimore (8-5) (vs GB, at CIN, vs LAR, vs PIT)

Buffalo (8-6) (at NE, vs ATL, vs NYJ)

Indianapolis (8-6) (at ARI, vs LV, at JAC)

LA Chargers (8-6) (at HOU, vs DEN, at LV)

---

Being 1 game back with six games to play seems incredibly generous given our shitty tiebreaker situation. I'll put our odds at 99.9999999%

[Curé]

Originally Posted by Bearcat

Mahomes gonna make history and win the NFC, too.

G.O.A.T.!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1111

[Hammock Parties]

Carrington was talking about how right now, just one play out of these three gives us the #1 seed:

Clyde fumble vs BAL
Mahomes INT vs LAC (or the 4th and 9 as arrwheader pointed out)
3rd and 27

If any of those three go our way we are sitting pretty.

Damn, damn, damn.

[Gary Cooper]

Originally Posted by Hammock Parties

Carrington was talking about how right now, just one play out of these three gives us the #1 seed:

Clyde fumble vs BAL
Mahomes INT vs LAC (or the 4th and 9 as arrwheader pointed out)
3rd and 27

If any of those three go our way we are sitting pretty.

Damn, damn, damn.

Meh, that's very presumptive. Who know how the season unfolds differently? Two of those games were ancient times by now.

The most recent game was tied when 3rd and 27 happened. Do the Chiefs win for sure if that's stopped? Do the Bengals attempt a 58 yard FG? Does their kicker make it? The Chiefs offense wasn't exactly dominating in the second half. Plus, the defense likely has to play another possession.

[arrwheader]

Originally Posted by Hammock Parties

Carrington was talking about how right now, just one play out of these three gives us the #1 seed:

Clyde fumble vs BAL
Mahomes INT vs LAC (or the 4th and 9 as arrwheader pointed out)
3rd and 27

If any of those three go our way we are sitting pretty.

Damn, damn, damn.

Yep, hopefully the texans pull off the crazy and win but I have accepted our fate, and I am remembering when we had the 2 seed and won the whole thing. All be it, we had a bye then (thanks NFL).

Chiefs just need to let their nuts hang come playofftime!

[wachashi]

It sucks we won't get the bye in all likelihood, but as long as we can escape injury it's not too big of a deal. Tampa Bay won it all last year with no bye and they had to travel to Green Bay for the NFC Championship. I think we still have a great shot of playing at Arrowhead for the AFC Championship. Just win and the rest will take care of itself.

[KChiefs1]

Originally Posted by ThaVirus

Josh Allen is a ****ing dog. I think he's the second best QB in the AFC after Mahomes.

1. Mahomes
2. Allen
3. Herbert
4. Burrow

Allen, Herbert and Burrow are pretty close, though. Depending on the week, I could easily see how you could swap them based on their most recent performance.

Herbert & Burrow are better than Allen.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[KChiefs1]

Originally Posted by LongSufferingToady

The Chiefs are not the #1 seed. They may not even be the #2 seed after this weekend's game. And they'll be bounced from the playoffs with one-and-done thanks to Spags...

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[KChiefs1]

Originally Posted by Jeff.Fisher

It was nice seeing the bengals dominate for a change.

You mean that last second FG that the refs helped with?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[suzzer99]

Originally Posted by Hammock Parties

Carrington was talking about how right now, just one play out of these three gives us the #1 seed:

Clyde fumble vs BAL
Mahomes INT vs LAC (or the 4th and 9 as arrwheader pointed out)
3rd and 27

If any of those three go our way we are sitting pretty.

Damn, damn, damn.

If Rodgers doesn't get covid we might be battling for a playoff spot right now.

Also if we don't win the toss in OT vs. the Chargers our fate is very different.

We've had our share of good luck too is the point.

[Hammock Parties]

Originally Posted by suzzer99

If Rodgers doesn't get covid we might be battling for a playoff spot right now.

Also if we don't win the toss in OT vs. the Chargers our fate is very different.

We've had our share of luck is the point.

[smithandrew051]

Originally Posted by LongSufferingToady

The Chiefs are not the #1 seed. They may not even be the #2 seed after this weekend's game. And they'll be bounced from the playoffs with one-and-done thanks to Spags...

Quoting this for convenience later

[smithandrew051]

Originally Posted by Hammock Parties

Who the **** is this asshole?

Just some Chad’s girlfriend’s husband

[Hammock Parties]

Titans are not getting Henry back 100%. He is still favoring that right foot.

[KChiefs1]

Sam McDowell of the Star:

The Chiefs have lost their grip on the AFC’s No. 1 seed and enter the season finale in need of some help. Unless the Chiefs beat the Broncos and the Titans lose this weekend to the Texans — a combination that some computer simulations give just a 20% chance of happening — the Chiefs will find themselves in a position Mahomes has not yet experienced. As participants, not spectators, for NFL’s Wild Card Weekend.

“We understand that we can still go out there and do whatever we want to do,” Mahomes said. “It’s just going to take us getting better each and every week.” That’s true. Even if the Chiefs wind up as the No. 2 seed (or worse) in the AFC playoffs — which, again, carries an 80% likelihood — they can still make it to a third straight Super Bowl. They could still host a fourth straight AFC Championship Game at Arrowhead Stadium. Could still win the whole dang thing.

But they’ve made their work tougher. That’s all. The forecasting site FiveThirtyEight says the Chiefs have an 8% worse chance of winning the Super Bowl if they’re the No. 2 seed as opposed to No. 1. If they fall further than No. 2 (which would require a loss to the Broncos), they’d be in an even more precarious position. The history backs it up. And there are some daunting propositions in the present, too.

The past eight AFC teams to reach the Super Bowl have been aided by a first-round bye, a luxury afforded only the No. 1 seeds in the newly-designed NFL format that squeezes in a seventh playoff team from each conference. The 2012 Ravens were the last to get to the NFL’s championship game without a bye. (The frequency of that occurrence will increase, of course, now that only one team receives a bye. The top seed will not hold serve at the same rate all alone.) Nevertheless, it does demonstrate the difficulty of winning three consecutive playoff games — one of which could be on the road — as compared to just two to reach the Super Bowl.

The Chiefs are still plenty good enough to get there again, but it won’t be as easy as they made it appear for two years. Even if their loss to the Bengals — their first defeat in more than two months — has done little to affect your belief in their ceiling, the task would be tougher as a No. 2 seed than it’s been at any point in the Mahomes era. They could potentially stand at the craps table to roll an additional time, hoping the dice don’t turn up seven.

And by the way, the AFC field is formidable. More formidable than it’s been either of the past two seasons, when the Chiefs breezed through it. The Chiefs beat some quality teams to reach the Super Bowl. This year, the opposition is statistically better, and that’s going to be true no matter where the Chiefs end up — the No. 1 seed, No. 2 seed or worse. While their most likely finish is the No. 2, which garners a Wild Card Round matchup against the last playoff team to get in, it’s no picnic. It could equal a third matchup with the Chargers, a team that beat the Chiefs once and took them to overtime a second time.

A bit more difficult than sitting at home for the weekend, yeah? With last Sunday’s loss to the Bengals, the Chiefs have put themselves in a position in which their path to the Super Bowl might include the Chargers, Bills and Titans. They’ve lost to all three teams this season.

In winning the Super Bowl to cap the 2019 season, Chiefs’ route included wins against Houston and Tennessee, who ranked 16th and 10th, respectively, in Football Outsiders total DVOA, a metric that rates each team while accounting for strength of schedule and other equalizing metrics.

A year ago, the Chiefs beat the Browns and Bills, ranked 18th and fourth in the same metric. This year, the AFC playoff field could include four other teams ranked among the top-11 in total DVOA — Buffalo is third, New England fourth, Indianapolis ninth and the Chargers 11th. (The Chiefs are sixth, in case you’re wondering.) The Chargers are third in offense DVOA, better than any offense the Chiefs have seen in the playoffs the past two years. That could be the first-round opponent.

The Colts, Patriots and Bills all have better defense DVOA scores than any opponent the Chiefs saw the last two postseasons.

That’s all to say this: The Chiefs are in a tougher spot than they were at this time last year, when they decided to give their starters the final week of the regular season off work because they already had guaranteed themselves a relaxing Wild Card Weekend at home. But it doesn’t mean impossible. Far from it. The Vegas sportsbooks still give the Chiefs the best odds to win the AFC Championship and return to a third straight Super Bowl. FiveThirtyEight likes their chances in its forecast, too, even as Tennessee is staring at a one fewer game to get there. If given the Chiefs or the field, however, both those metrics are taking the field. Which basically summarizes to this: Difficult? Absolutely. But doable? There’s no one better positioned for it.

Read more at: https://www.kansascity.com/sports/nf...#storylink=cpy


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[irafreak]

Originally Posted by suzzer99

If Rodgers doesn't get covid we might be battling for a playoff spot right now.

Also if we don't win the toss in OT vs. the Chargers our fate is very different.

We've had our share of good luck too is the point.

We also don't know if Veach pulls the trigger on Ingram if we start out 5-2 by not fumbling away the ravens and chargers games. I think he would since the defense was struggling but you never know.