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11-18-2021, 08:22 PM | #16 | |
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Just focus on the base salary you clear off. The pro-rated bonuses are sunk costs. The only question worth asking is if it’s worth an additional $19 million in base salary on the cap to keep Frank Clark. That answer is unequivocally ‘No’.
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11-22-2021, 06:23 PM | #17 |
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So this offseason, the "gotta do it, extremely likely" moves are:
- Franchise Orlando Brown Jr. (Not good enough to commit to, Not bad enough to part with, and this buys us more time for options to develop). - Cut Frank Clark (Unless he decides to restructure and take a serious haircut. The cost for production isn't there). - Extend Tyreek (enough said). - Try to extend Tyrann (unless price & negotiations get ridiculous. The turnaround for our secondary likely has some to do with his leadership, though, and that can't be understated). - Sign a true, high-quality WR #1B or #2 (Juju, Godwin, Robinson)
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11-23-2021, 10:07 AM | #18 |
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I messed around with a Clark "haircut" extension the other day. I think if he hits the market, Carl Lawson is a good comparison for the top end of his contract options (3 years, $40-45 million). Both are Es who don't have huge sack production but who have a rep as above-average players who do some things to help you win.
So Clark has the following structure left: 2022: 19M base | 6.8M Prorated Bonus | 500k other bonuses 2023: 20.5 M base | 6.8 M Prorated Bonus | 500k other bonuses If the Chiefs were to walk, I think they'd be doing it with him as a June 1 cut to spread the bonus dead caps evenly. So you're down $6.8M in dead cap in 2022 but gain $20M cap dollars. That's a LOT. That's what I still think happens. BUT I do wonder... if he keeps playing this well, the defense keeps playing this well, and they make another SB run... what does it look like if they decide to bring him back with a fair other that works both ways? (This assumes his legal problems clear). So what about this structure: 25M signing bonus, extend 3 years 2022: 1.5M base | 11.8 M prorated | 500k other bonuses (cap hit 13.8M) 2023: 1.5M base | 11.8M prorated | 500k other bonuses (cap hit 13.8M) 2024: 4M base | 5M prorated | 8.5M other bonuses (cap hit 17.5M, dead cap $15M if cut) 2025: 6M base | 5M prorated | 9.5M other bonuses (cap hit 20.5M, dead cap $10M if cut) 2026: 8M base | 5 M prorated | 10.5M other bonuses (cap hit 23.5M, deap cap $5M if cut) That puts Clark in the same general price range as Lawson (5/75) and kicks the dead cap can down the road a lot. You still end up saving basically 1/2 his cap hit in 22 and 23 and have freed up $13M in 2022 and $14M in 2023. He becomes a similar June 1 cut cost before 2024. You might need to guarantee him more than just the signing bonus to make it worthwhile from Clark's end. After working through the numbers, my preference would be to turn the page. But I can see a scenario where the team thinks it is worthwhile to do something like this. Worst case scenario, they've cut his cap hit in 1/2 for 2022 and 2023 and for all intents and purposes purchased him for 2/14M over those two years. No clue if that makes sense from Clark's end (all depends on how much he thinks he can get guaranteed on the open market). The dead cap hit if you move on after those years would be more than if they June 1 cut him in 2022, but not drastically so (a June 1 cut in March 2024 would cost them $7.5M in 2024 and 2025 vs. a June 1 cut in March 2022 costing them $6.8M in 2022 and 2023) I don't know. You pair that franchise tagging Orlando Brown Jr, extending Hill on a rough 5/100M structure, and re-signing Mathieu on a rough 4/60 structure, along with a cut of Hitchens, and the numbers are going to end up with around $30M in cap room (based on a 211M salary cap projection). That's a small amount of cap after you reserve $8M for rookies. They could do a restructure of Mahomes or Jones to free up some more wiggle room, if needed, I guess. But it feels like they'll have to pick which pairing they want most: Clark and Orlando Brown Clark and Mathieu Brown and Mathieu
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11-23-2021, 10:13 AM | #19 |
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I don't disagree that structurally it could be done.
But if you bring Clark back, even under that structure, after you franchise Brown you're essentially looking at 'run it back 4.0'. That's just too much roster stagnation. Clear the cap space, move in new talent who hasn't started to tune out the coaching staff and who has a little more tread on the tires. I just don't think you can bring back the same veteran core next season and that's effectively what keeping Clark would require you to do. There's just too much sniping. This team was 1 bad bounce against the Giants or Packers from imploding, IMO. They were right on the edge. That vaunted 'leadership' from guys like Hitchens and Mathieu has been notably absent. When the defense was playing poorly, were Mathieu and Clark out there answering questions from the media? Nope - they were sending Danna and Bolton out to the pressers while Mathieu sniped away on social media and Clark stayed hidden. I just can't envision a scenario where I'm interested in bringing back Clark next year, let alone 2 more with a big dead cap hit in year 3. We need to turn the roster over and Clark's the biggest impediment to doing so.
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11-23-2021, 12:50 PM | #20 | |
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It might be harder to sell - both internally and to fans - if they make a Super Bowl run with this unit and with this defense playing as well as it has of late.
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11-23-2021, 02:48 PM | #21 | |
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Gotta keep the roster refreshing.
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11-24-2021, 05:49 AM | #22 |
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yep. Earlier in the season, it appeared that Spags had lost the guys. They've been motivated since getting skewered in the press and on social media-but I don't like that they could start phoning it in again.
I think you've got to ditch Clark June 1, and 3 of your 4 safeties are FA's. Ingram will be a FA. Your corner room looks ok, and Bolton and Gay are good foundational pieces. Jonesy, Saunders, Danna, Wharton, Kaindoh all stay. Nnadi you could keep at a decent price. I think Mathieu depends on the length of the deal. If you could get him for 3 that has an out after 2 maybe you consider it. If you think Key can at least be Watts then you need to draft Sorensen's replacement and sign a bargain FA. I'd bring Ingram back, sign an Ogbah type, and draft a DE high. But that's just me. |
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