***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[Chief Pagan]

Originally Posted by MahomesMagic

We’ll Have Herd Immunity by April

By Marty Makary
Feb. 18, 2021
...
There is reason to think the country is racing toward an extremely low level of infection. As more people have been infected, most of whom have mild or no symptoms, there are fewer Americans left to be infected. At the current trajectory, I expect Covid will be mostly gone by April, allowing Americans to resume normal life.
...
Some medical experts privately agreed with my prediction that there may be very little Covid-19 by April but suggested that I not to talk publicly about herd immunity because people might become complacent and fail to take precautions or might decline the vaccine.

Yes. And once upon a time, people were claiming this was now worse than the flu. And last April people were claiming it would be gone by June. And the sort of people that once were claiming that it would be gone by summer probably didn't predict the huge surge of deaths we just this winter.

This is a new virus and scientific predictions are just that, predictions. But some predictions are based a little more on science and some are mostly on wishful thinking and/or trolling or populist denialism.

The huge drops in cases and hospitalizations the last few weeks has been great news. I doubt there were very many experts out there who both predicted the winter surge followed by such a steep decline.

If the virus didn't mutate, and especially if say 90% of the population got the vaccine, I could see the country getting to the point where the virus no longer circulated.

But given the mutated viruses that are circulating in South America and Africa and given that is likely that at least 20% or 30%, perhaps?, of the population will decline the vaccine, I find it extremely unlikely that the country is going to at an extremely low level of infection.

There does seem to be a summer effect. So the next wave may not be until next fall or winter. And there are lots of unknown.

The current vaccines still provide good, but not great, protection against getting the mutated forms. And my understanding is that the vaccines also drastically reduce the chance of getting a severe case of the disease even from a mutated virus. So I think the impact of the virus will be much reduced a year from now.

However, I would say its more likely that there are still plenty of people (mostly those who have not gotten vaccinated) that are getting really sick from mutated forms of the virus next winter than it is that the virus is at an extremely low level of infection.

I guess we will see. I will point out that there remain a lot of unknowns and I hope Marty Makary is correct in his prediction. But I'm afraid it will turn out to be more like the 'no worse than the flu' and the 'gone by summer' predictions.

[MahomesMagic]

Originally Posted by Chief Pagan

Yes. And once upon a time, people were claiming this was now worse than the flu. And last April people were claiming it would be gone by June. And the sort of people that once were claiming that it would be gone by summer probably didn't predict the huge surge of deaths we just this winter.

This is a new virus and scientific predictions are just that, predictions. But some predictions are based a little more on science and some are mostly on wishful thinking and/or trolling or populist denialism.

The huge drops in cases and hospitalizations the last few weeks has been great news. I doubt there were very many experts out there who both predicted the winter surge followed by such a steep decline.

If the virus didn't mutate, and especially if say 90% of the population got the vaccine, I could see the country getting to the point where the virus no longer circulated.

But given the mutated viruses that are circulating in South America and Africa and given that is likely that at least 20% or 30%, perhaps?, of the population will decline the vaccine, I find it extremely unlikely that the country is going to at an extremely low level of infection.

There does seem to be a summer effect. So the next wave may not be until next fall or winter. And there are lots of unknown.

The current vaccines still provide good, but not great, protection against getting the mutated forms. And my understanding is that the vaccines also drastically reduce the chance of getting a severe case of the disease even from a mutated virus. So I think the impact of the virus will be much reduced a year from now.

However, I would say its more likely that there are still plenty of people (mostly those who have not gotten vaccinated) that are getting really sick from mutated forms of the virus next winter than it is that the virus is at an extremely low level of infection.

I guess we will see. I will point out that there remain a lot of unknowns and I hope Marty Makary is correct in his prediction. But I'm afraid it will turn out to be more like the 'no worse than the flu' and the 'gone by summer' predictions.

Most of the problems we have is based on "it's a new virus".

Sure, it is novel enough that humans overall haven't built up enough immunity to protect against it, especially in the old and frail.

We also have known for a long time that coronaviruses are sharply seasonal. What is happening now looks like more like a "semi-novel" virus has been introduced and will soon be endemic.

Within a season or two this will just be another cold virus for most.

We also can see that there is a huge variation in how deadly this thing is. In many countries they could have done nothing and no one would have noticed it if the media wasn't talking about it. In others with an unhealthy and older population stacked in nursing homes this thing is very bad.

We have also known for almost a year that for people under 70 without preexisting conditions this virus was very weak.

The risk goes up a 1000 times based on age. Time for the Covid Doomers to find another end of the world scenario. The rest of us are getting ready to move on.

[Chief Roundup]

Since they are saying that they don't think the "immunity" to the virus will last very long or that the vaccine will only protect us for 6 months or so, if people do not continue to get the vaccine then the outbreaks could form again and cases would then rise to levels we do not want.

[BigCatDaddy]

Mods..can we start banning people as well for posting made up bullshit like the above post?

[2112]

Originally Posted by BigCatDaddy

Wut?

Lol I thought that they were going to be doing testing on people 6 months after they have been vaccinated to get an idea on booster shots/residual immunity et al. I don’t think any of this testing has been done yet.

[KCUnited]

Originally Posted by Chief Roundup

Since they are saying that they don't think the "immunity" to the virus will last very long or that the vaccine will only protect us for 6 months or so, if people do not continue to get the vaccine then the outbreaks could form again and cases would then rise to levels we do not want.

Reads like death metal lyrics

Hell yeah man \m/

[O.city]

Originally Posted by Chief Roundup

Since they are saying that they don't think the "immunity" to the virus will last very long or that the vaccine will only protect us for 6 months or so, if people do not continue to get the vaccine then the outbreaks could form again and cases would then rise to levels we do not want.

Just don’t know yet. The vaccines produce a very strong immune response that’s pretty sturdy. I’d guess we find out immunity is pretty long lasting but we just don’t know yet.

If there’s enough drift where our antibodies don’t recognize yes, we’ll need new vaccines

Multiple studies have shown that the vaccines still work on the new strains. I dont nessecarily agree with Kansas City opening up so quickly right now. I would give it another 4 weeks or so right before St.Patricks day to allow more people vaccinated and then businesses will see the St.Patricks day boom in business. Missouri has about 6 million people about a million have been vaccinated and we know there has been atleast 500k positive meaning there is some sort of immunity. If I had to guess that number is probably closer to 1 million so we as a state might be at 1/3 of the way towards some sort of immunity. Which you are seeing in states like Wisconsin and North Dakota.

[BigCatDaddy]

Originally Posted by Queefythong

Multiple studies have shown that the vaccines still work on the new strains. I dont nessecarily agree with Kansas City opening up so quickly right now. I would give it another 4 weeks or so right before St.Patricks day to allow more people vaccinated and then businesses will see the St.Patricks day boom in business. Missouri has about 6 million people about a million have been vaccinated and we know there has been atleast 500k positive meaning there is some sort of immunity. If I had to guess that number is probably closer to 1 million so we as a state might be at 1/3 of the way towards some sort of immunity. Which you are seeing in states like Wisconsin and North Dakota.

You think we caught half the positives? Maybe 20% at best.

[O.city]

https://twitter.com/scottlincicome/s...544230912?s=21

[IA_Chiefs_fan]

Originally Posted by O.city

https://twitter.com/scottlincicome/s...544230912?s=21

I was sure hoping and expecting this to be the case. Thank goodness and thanks for sharing.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by IA_Chiefs_fan

I was sure hoping and expecting this to be the case. Thank goodness and thanks for sharing.

Yep. Great news

[MahomesMagic]

Well everyone. It’s time.

It’s officially been two weeks since the single worst thing that’s ever happened to experts & media…maskless Super Bowl Celebrations

They’ve been wrong SO many times…surely THIS is the time a huge maskless gathering becomes a “superspreader”

Oof pic.twitter.com/NX184cnFQo

— IM (@ianmSC) February 21, 2021

[Chief Roundup]

Fauci expects Americans could still need to wear face masks in 2022.


https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/21/w...uyBHmW37vzHL8E

Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, President Biden’s chief medical adviser for Covid-19, said on Sunday that Americans may still be wearing masks outside their homes a year from now, even as he predicted the country would return to “a significant degree of normality” by fall.

“I want it to keep going down to a baseline that’s so low there is virtually no threat,” Dr. Fauci said on the CNN program “State of the Union,” referring to the number of cases nationally that would make him comfortable enough to stop recommending universal masking. “If you combine getting most of the people in the country vaccinated with getting the level of virus in the community very, very low, then I believe you’re going to be able to say, for the most part, we don’t necessarily have to wear masks.”

Dr. Fauci appeared on a series of TV news programs on Sunday morning, where he was quizzed on the dangers of variants of the coronavirus, the schedule of the nation’s vaccine rollout and when vaccination would allow more students to return to schools.

On this last question, Dr. Fauci said on “Fox News Sunday” that he hoped high school students, far fewer of whom have gone back to classrooms compared with younger children, would be eligible for vaccination in the fall.

“That’s why we are pushing on those studies, to get them vaccinated,” he said of teenagers, who are currently the subject of clinical trials by Pfizer and Moderna. “That will likely occur in the fall; I can’t say it’s going to be on day one of when school starts in the fall term.”

Dig deeper into the moment.

Subscribe for $1 a week.

Vaccinations for younger children, however, “likely will not be before the beginning of the first quarter of 2022,” Dr. Fauci said.

On the hotly debated question of whether people should wait longer than the recommended three or four weeks to get a booster vaccine, or even skip the second dose, Dr. Fauci said on NBC News’s “Meet the Press” that it was prudent for people to stick to the prescribed schedule.

“There are enough unknowns in that, particularly the durability of the protection,” he said.

He added that while that new data suggesting people who have had Covid could get enough protection from one dose was “really quite impressive,” it might be complicated to document who has had the virus.

He also addressed the subject of the mutated variant of the coronavirus identified in South Africa. In clinical trials involving the AstraZeneca-Oxford vaccine in that country, patients who were inoculated were not protected from mild or moderate illness caused by the variant, known as B. 1.351. Dr. Fauci said on “Fox News Sunday” that while it is still rare in the United States, “if it becomes more dominant, we may need a version of the vaccine that’s effective specifically against” it.
Editors’ Picks
The Vaccine Had to Be Used. He Used It. He Was Fired.
If Winter Feels Extra Hard This Year, You’re Not Alone
How Does Bill Gates Plan to Solve the Climate Crisis?
Continue reading the main story

With the United States expected to surpass 500,000 deaths from Covid-19 in the coming days, Dr. Fauci told Chuck Todd on “Meet the Press” that “we haven’t seen anything even close to this for well over 100 years,” since the 1918 influenza pandemic, adding, “People will be talking about this decades and decades and decades from now.”

[TLO]

Originally Posted by Chief Roundup

Fauci expects Americans could still need to wear face masks in 2022.


https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/21/w...uyBHmW37vzHL8E

Behind a paywall.

I suppose things could really flare back up next fall/winter. But I personally think mask mandates will be a thing of the past very, very soon.