***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[Katipan]

People aren’t moving to different states. They’re moving within their states.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by DaFace

I was kind of curious about whether we could actually see that in data, so I grabbed 7-day case rates per 100k and % 18+ fully vaccinated from the CDC. Here's the result:



It's not as strong as you might guess (with an R2 of 21%), but the trend is definitely there.

(Missouri is the third-highest dot FWIW. Interestingly, Colorado is the second-highest despite relatively high vaccination rates. Wyoming is the highest.)

I’d say it depends on a lot of factors

I hadn’t really looked into it just read a little on social media which as we know is always the truth

[Sure-Oz]

Originally Posted by NotDonger

The Delta variant (B.1.617.2) is now making up 6.8% of Missouri cases. The next closest state is Colorado at 4.3%

@DrEricDing: Two patients positive for the #DeltaVariant in Calgary have died. One death was in patient with 2 doses of #COVID19 vaccine and fully immunized. Although patient in 80s for age, it also suggestive of incomplete protection against Delta. Must be cautious.
https://calgaryherald.com/news/local...entre-outbreak

I assume we will get a booster at some point for these variants. Didn't know it was in mo

[O.city]

I'd imagine it's been here for a while.

[TLO]

Originally Posted by Sure-Oz

@DrEricDing: Two patients positive for the #DeltaVariant in Calgary have died. One death was in patient with 2 doses of #COVID19 vaccine and fully immunized. Although patient in 80s for age, it also suggestive of incomplete protection against Delta. Must be cautious.
https://calgaryherald.com/news/local...entre-outbreak

I assume we will get a booster at some point for these variants. Didn't know it was in mo

Dr Ding can suck a dick.

[NotDonger]

The UK still seeing rapid case growth with the Delta variant as the predominant strain. 3.5 x in the last month, and they've got vaccination numbers like ours. I thought I read that they delayed a lot of people getting the boost shot so they could get more primes into shoulders, and we know that the prime shot doesn't provide very good immunity against Delta.

[Rain Man]

Originally Posted by NotDonger

The UK still seeing rapid case growth with the Delta variant as the predominant strain. 3.5 x in the last month, and they've got vaccination numbers like ours. I thought I read that they delayed a lot of people getting the boost shot so they could get more primes into shoulders, and we know that the prime shot doesn't provide very good immunity against Delta.

I could be wrong, but weren't they oriented more heavily toward Astrazenica, which has a lower efficacy? I think they got a lot of Pfizer too, so maybe it evens out.

[TLO]

Originally Posted by Rain Man

I could be wrong, but weren't they oriented more heavily toward Astrazenica, which has a lower efficacy? I think they got a lot of Pfizer too, so maybe it evens out.

I think the issue is that they delayed the second Pfizer shot for a lot of people. There was a study that showed after one shot you're only around 33% protected. After 2 shots that number goes up to 88%

[NotDonger]

Originally Posted by Rain Man

I could be wrong, but weren't they oriented more heavily toward Astrazenica, which has a lower efficacy? I think they got a lot of Pfizer too, so maybe it evens out.

I haven't seen any percentages of breakdown, but they've approved the following for use:

Pfizer
Moderna
Oxford/AstraZeneca
J&J

But I know that they ordered 100 million doses of both Pfizer and Oxford/AstraZeneca, and 17 million of Moderna and 20 million of J&J.

I'm really pleased that the vast majority of our jabs have been Pfizer and Moderna.

[NotDonger]

Originally Posted by TLO

I think the issue is that they delayed the second Pfizer shot for a lot of people. There was a study that showed after one shot you're only around 33% protected. After 2 shots that number goes up to 88%

As the U.K. eased a months-long lockdown this week -- and eager crowds flocked to pubs and hair salons -- health officials there called their outlier approach to COVID-19 vaccination a success.

Britain has continued to stretch out the interval between first and second doses of COVID-19 vaccines for up to 12 weeks in order to prioritize first doses for as many people as possible. Initially, the move was made in response to a dramatic uptick in cases at the end of December and into January -- spurred by the highly contagious B.1.1.7 variant.

[TLO]

Highest case numbers we've had here in NW Missouri in about 5 months.

[KCUnited]

Curious to how new case numbers are being derived. Like who's getting tested without symptoms unless its being done for routine maintenance visits or some other mandatory procedure?

Drove by a testing site in a parking lot recently and it looked like an old Circuit City lot with no one there but the testers.

[DaFace]

Originally Posted by KCUnited

Curious to how new case numbers are being derived. Like who's getting tested without symptoms unless its being done for routine maintenance visits or some other mandatory procedure?

Drove by a testing site in a parking lot recently and it looked like an old Circuit City lot with no one there but the testers.

Probably mostly symptomatic people plus contact tracing.

[NotDonger]

Hot spots of COVID-19 cases continue to spread across northern and southwest Missouri, sparking concerns that the virus — especially a more dangerous variant — will reach more vulnerable populations in the St. Louis and Kansas City areas.

Average daily cases across the state have increased to almost 600 from around 400 a day at the beginning of June, driven mainly by big upticks in outstate Missouri. With that growth, Missouri ranks third among all states for the most cases per 100,000 residents in the last seven days, according to The New York Times nationwide tracker.

Among counties with a population of more than 10,000, the same data shows four Missouri counties in the top 12 for most new cases in the U.S. — Linn and Livingston counties in northern Missouri, and Webster and Taney counties in southwest Missouri.

At the start of June, Linn and Livingston counties (and also nearby Putnam with fewer than 10,000 people) led the nation in most new cases per capita, reporting even more cases than the state’s most populous cities. A few areas in southwest Missouri also showed troublesome signs.

Last week, more counties in the two regions moved toward red.

Nathan Koffarnus, assistant chief of disease control with the Missouri Department of Health and Senior Services, sounded the alarm at last week’s meeting of the Missouri Advisory Committee on Equitable COVID Vaccine Distribution.

“I’ve seen it brewing. I’ve been concerned about it for a couple of weeks now, and yesterday’s data update really kind of jumped off the page,” Koffarnus told the group, which includes members of health care organizations and advocacy groups. “It’s a pretty sizable jump in such a short period of time.”

Chariton, Grundy, Caldwell and Macon counties saw jumps in the north; while Greene, Webster, Laclede, Newton and the city of Joplin joined Polk and Taney counties with increasing cases in the southwest.

The southwest includes the state’s third-largest city of Springfield, as well as Joplin and Branson.

“The population in southwest Missouri is quite a bit higher than in north Missouri,” Koffarnus said. “When it hits here, it’s going to be worse, and I think it’s already happening.”

‘Get in front of this’

Greene County, which includes Springfield, reported 375 new cases in the past seven days — the most in the state. St. Louis city, with a population roughly the same as Greene County’s, had 74 new cases over the same period. Taney County, home to Branson, saw 88 new cases.

During the last two weeks of May, Greene County posted an average of 32.6 new cases per day. Just two weeks later, the daily average nearly doubled to 62.3.

Koffarnus told the committee that he sees the spread happening in areas along U.S. Highway 36, which runs east and west across northern Missouri, as well as along U.S. Highway 65, which runs north and south.

The same is happening along Interstate 44, which cuts diagonally through southwest Missouri and up to St. Louis.

He advised the group to “get in front of this” by considering how their residents interact with surrounding counties as far as work, shopping and recreation.

“Can we head some of this off before it jumps communities and really establishes itself down the road?” Koffarnus said.

To help, the state health department last week made available a “COVID Hot Spot Map” that updates daily and shows counties with the most new cases per capita in the past 14 days, as well as the highest percentage of positive coronavirus test results.

The maps are available on a “blind site,” meaning users must know the web address to find it on the internet.

Koffarnus blamed the upticks on the increasing presence of the Delta variant — which emerged in India and is shown to be more transmissible and cause more serious illness — along with low vaccination rates.

He cautioned that other Missouri counties and cities also have cases of the variant and similarly low vaccination rates. They could be just as vulnerable.

“We can see flare-ups and outbreaks in any part of the state,” he said.

Everyone at risk

At a meeting of public health leaders earlier this month, Andrew Miller of Deloitte Consulting, hired by the state to help with vaccination data, provided additional cautions about Missouri’s hot spots.

Miller pointed out that while northern Missouri has high rates of unvaccinated people, it is not home to the state’s most vulnerable residents in terms of poverty, medical comorbidities and minority populations.

“I’m looking specifically inside the I-435 corridor of Kansas City,” he said.

“I’m looking at the northwest pie wedge coming along I-70 and the Mississippi corridors in St. Louis city. I’m looking at the overhanging bootheel region … these are things we really need to pay attention to because those areas inherently have more vulnerability than this (north) region, yet we are still seeing this outbreak in this location.”

Scott Allen, administrator of the Webster County Health Unit, asked if it was OK to share the hot spot maps and other reports on the site with the public.

Adam Crumbliss, who directs state’s public health division, said the state didn’t want to create “mass hysteria or concern.”

But he added, “It is not something we would say is secret or closed record. We ask that if you do share it, that it’s done in an appropriate and thoughtful context of what our public health situation is.”

To date, the state health department has not released public health notices or guidance regarding troublesome hot spots. Health officials did not respond Wednesday to a request for comment about their level of concern and next steps.

Allen, reached by phone this week, said a month ago Webster County had 21 active COVID-19 cases, now it has 102. It has seen the 10th highest rate of new cases over the past week in the U.S.

“I’m OK with our county residents being alarmed. They should be. We have a significant issue in Webster County,” Allen said. “I want them to know we need their help in being more vigilant.”

Hospitalizations for COVID-19 are increasing in Joplin, Springfield and Columbia (which sees patients from northern Missouri), according to hospitalization data collected by St. Louis University sociologist Chris Prener.

Koffarnus said last week that about 5% of COVID cases in Missouri involve the Delta variant. State health officials late Wednesday issued a press release saying that wastewater surveillance shows the variant on the rise across the state. The variant is projected to become dominant worldwide.

Dr. Hilary Babcock, an infectious disease specialist for BJC HealthCare in St. Louis, said counties are seeing an increase in patients hospitalized because of the variant. Patients are mainly younger adults who opted against vaccination because earlier strains of the virus hit the elderly the hardest.

“If this Delta variant gets a foothold, it will just spread through the unvaccinated population and then put everyone at risk,” Babcock said.

While overall vaccination rates in the St. Louis area are higher than other parts of the state, there are pockets of residents that have low vaccination rates because of mistrust of government and health officials, she warned.

“It’s not like we have a solid wall between us and other parts of the state,” Babcock said. “Disease that is spreading in other counties means that people who go to those counties, or come from those counties to our counties, can bring coronavirus with them.”

[Bugeater]

Welp, won't be long before we're all wearing masks all the goddamn time again.