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Old 12-15-2021, 12:28 PM   Topic Starter
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Chiefs Run game


So for the past couple weeks or longer I keep thinking "man, it was one block away from really taking off there".

This seems like an example to me. Blocked it up fine, Brown is just a tick late getting to 5. If he slides off and gets to 5 there, that thing goes for 20.
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Old 12-15-2021, 12:29 PM   #2
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So for the past couple weeks or longer I keep thinking "man, it was one block away from really taking off there".

This seems like an example to me. Blocked it up fine, Brown is just a tick late getting to 5. If he slides off and gets to 5 there, that thing goes for 20.
Or it's at least CEH vs a safety.
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Old 12-15-2021, 12:31 PM   #3
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I think on the very first run play of the game, Smith absolutely obliterates a guy.

I legitimately think Smith is our third-best interior OL that we have, given that I think Humphrey and Thuney are currently better, but he is probably the most fun I've had watching a Chiefs OL since Brian Waters.
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Old 12-15-2021, 12:33 PM   #4
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It just always seems like it's one block away.

Now maybe that's just the way these go and it's up to the RB to make that one guy miss, I dunno.
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Old 12-15-2021, 12:41 PM   #5
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It just always seems like it's one block away.

Now maybe that's just the way these go and it's up to the RB to make that one guy miss, I dunno.
CEH's tackle-breaking score on Madden has got to be terrible. Arm tackles get the job done on him.

I was so shocked he broke a tackle to score against the Raiders because he's not a hard guy to tackle.
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Old 12-15-2021, 02:24 PM   #6
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It just always seems like it's one block away.

Now maybe that's just the way these go and it's up to the RB to make that one guy miss, I dunno.
I read an article a couple weeks ago that broke down success rates on run vs. pass plays based on Expected points added and dependent on blocking win rates.

It was really surprising, actually. A perfectly blocked run actually has a GREATER EPA/play than a perfectly blocked pass play. And a poorly blocked run is actually less productive than a poorly blocked pass.

But the rub is how one defined a 'perfectly blocked' play - it's a play where EVERYONE does their job. And that was the major driver in the overall success of passes vs. runs - the perfect block rate for passes was much higher than it was for runs. On something like 5 out of 6 runs, at least one guy fails. It was something like 3 out of 6 on passing plays.

And when a pass is more likely to be successfully blocked and more likely to succeed even if it isn't, then suddenly its obvious why passing is more efficient over large numbers.

But when you watch individual run plays and see just how many are 'one block away' from breaking, you can also completely understand how effective a perfectly blocked run can/should be. So yeah, it's not that surprising that a lot of runs are 1 block away from breaking - but its not unique to the Chiefs. It's that way for virtually every team in the league. If a team could somehow meaningfully improve its perfect block rate on run plays, it may actually have a HUGE competitive advantage.
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Old 12-15-2021, 02:51 PM   #7
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I read an article a couple weeks ago that broke down success rates on run vs. pass plays based on Expected points added and dependent on blocking win rates.

It was really surprising, actually. A perfectly blocked run actually has a GREATER EPA/play than a perfectly blocked pass play. And a poorly blocked run is actually less productive than a poorly blocked pass.

But the rub is how one defined a 'perfectly blocked' play - it's a play where EVERYONE does their job. And that was the major driver in the overall success of passes vs. runs - the perfect block rate for passes was much higher than it was for runs. On something like 5 out of 6 runs, at least one guy fails. It was something like 3 out of 6 on passing plays.

And when a pass is more likely to be successfully blocked and more likely to succeed even if it isn't, then suddenly its obvious why passing is more efficient over large numbers.

But when you watch individual run plays and see just how many are 'one block away' from breaking, you can also completely understand how effective a perfectly blocked run can/should be. So yeah, it's not that surprising that a lot of runs are 1 block away from breaking - but its not unique to the Chiefs. It's that way for virtually every team in the league. If a team could somehow meaningfully improve its perfect block rate on run plays, it may actually have a HUGE competitive advantage.
I think it brings to light why it's so important to have a RB that can make a guy miss or break a tackle.

Charles could just do both, or make 3 guys miss and outrun and angle. Kareem would break a tackle.

It's just too hard to completely block it up it seems.
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Old 12-15-2021, 03:28 PM   #8
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I think it brings to light why it's so important to have a RB that can make a guy miss or break a tackle.

Charles could just do both, or make 3 guys miss and outrun and angle. Kareem would break a tackle.

It's just too hard to completely block it up it seems.
In some ways, though, it also demonstrates how fungible RBs are until they become Jamaal Charles.

A middle of the road back vs. a merely pretty good back likely makes a negligible difference in outcomes.

You pretty much have to get to generational talents or at LEAST All Pro caliber guys before you move the needle beyond merely being dependent on your OL to get any sort of efficiency out of your run game.
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Old 12-15-2021, 12:35 PM   #9
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CEH is just 1 block away from taking it to the house every time.
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Matt once made a very nice play in Seattle where he spun away from a pass rusher and hit Bowe off his back foot for a first down.

One of the best plays Matt has ever made.
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Old 12-15-2021, 02:55 PM   #10
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CEH is just 1 block away from taking it to the house every time.
I think you meant CEH is just one block away from being chased down by a linebacker, or defensive end/tackle, or a corner back.

Unless he breaks free inside the 20, he isn't taking anything to the house.



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Old 12-15-2021, 12:42 PM   #11
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A breakdown of all RBs across the NFL. Darrell Williams needs fewer carries.
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Old 12-15-2021, 02:27 PM   #12
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A breakdown of all RBs across the NFL. Darrell Williams needs fewer carries.
I'm still not sure why this isn't just incredibly obvious to everyone that watches the guy.

Yes, there is a SIGNIFICANT difference between Williams and CEH. If CEH just takes what is blocked up for him (and he has for most of the year), this is a credible, above average running game.

If you put Williams behind the same line and with the same blocking, the run game will suck. Hard.

There's NOTHING to support Williams getting more carries. Not one single metric. Not new ones, not old ones, not the eye test. Not a thing says that Darrell Williams is a credible NFL ballcarrier.

He's a good 3rd down back - I'll take that. But that's all he is.
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Old 12-15-2021, 03:45 PM   #13
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A breakdown of all RBs across the NFL. Darrell Williams needs fewer carries.
One below average RB and one flat out terrible one. Nice.
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Old 12-15-2021, 04:09 PM   #14
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One below average RB and one flat out terrible one. Nice.
I'd say CEH is right at average.

I mean he's ahead of Jacobs, Conner, Harris, Kamara, Barkley, McCaffrey, Ingram, Gaskin, Moss and a few others in terms of yards beyond expected. He's right there with Jones, Henry, Sanders, Gibson and only a hiccup behind Mixon and Elliott.

Now where there's some obvious concern is that there does appear to be a positive correlation between run block grades and the ability to then exceed what's expected. And yeah, that makes some sense - it's easier to create yards when you have a head of steam and you need good blocking to get that.

But there are a lot of RBs in that same tier that perform extremely similarly to CEH in terms of getting yards beyond what's blocked for him. Many of those guys are all guys we'd say are 'good' RBs.

All I'm saying with regards to CEH is that he's not a problem. He's not really an asset to speak of, but he's not what's holding the offense back either. When we drafted him Veach emphasized that we were leaving yards on the field in relation to what was blocked up. Veach got him specifically because he was a guy who was taked what was blocked.

And that's pretty much exactly who he's been. Questionable value with the pick, to be sure, but not a bad player. Just a pretty average one.
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Old 12-15-2021, 12:51 PM   #15
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Only problem with our run game is Andy tells our RBs to grab some wood after ripping off 10 yards. We will have none of that young man. Make them stop the run before going all air mail. We struggle and he just keeps chucking matter what.
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