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Old 06-27-2016, 11:23 AM  
DaFace DaFace is offline
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Old 03-11-2020, 02:02 PM   #3991
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lol at thinking we're anywhere near the bottom.
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Old 03-11-2020, 02:13 PM   #3992
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lol at thinking we're anywhere near the bottom.
I know but it's impossible to time so I'm good if the stocks I just bought go down that's when I'll add to those holdings. I can see a scenario where as warmer weather comes on the virus subsides and then as it becomes clear that Trump is going to be re-elected the market will run all the way back up to where it was and then pop 30,000 ….
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Old 03-11-2020, 02:42 PM   #3993
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Curious where you guys feel the bottom is for the S&P and when?
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Old 03-11-2020, 02:46 PM   #3994
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Curious where you guys feel the bottom is for the S&P and when?
I'm sure I'm missing something here, but correct my logic. Let's say that this has a mortality rate of 1 percent or 3 percent or 6 percent. Isn't the long-term impact on the economy 1 or 3 or 6 percent? And we're down 20 percent in the market now?
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Old 03-11-2020, 02:50 PM   #3995
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Curious where you guys feel the bottom is for the S&P and when?
About 40% below what the S&P is currently marked at.
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Old 03-11-2020, 02:57 PM   #3996
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About 40% below what the S&P is currently marked at.
you're a ****ing dumbass
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Old 03-11-2020, 03:00 PM   #3997
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you're a ****ing dumbass
Literally studied the market in the process of earning a master's degree.


So no. No I'm not.
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Old 03-11-2020, 03:03 PM   #3998
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I'm sure I'm missing something here, but correct my logic. Let's say that this has a mortality rate of 1 percent or 3 percent or 6 percent. Isn't the long-term impact on the economy 1 or 3 or 6 percent? And we're down 20 percent in the market now?
The market highs were built on optimistic models of future growth without disruption, imo.

More importantly, the market prices in anticipated future growth, and the factors are multiplicative over time. You would have to develop models assuming the loss of 1-3% production and consumption, plus the loss of production from quarantines and sick workers. Net present value of cash flows are drastically reduced given supply chain disruption, changes in consumer behavior and reduced growth forecasts. What is the difference in the net present value of an investment with an 8% return and a 5% return, all other things equal? Then factor in changes to profit margin, reduced volume due to supply chain reduction? It also makes overhead a much bigger deal, turning profitable companies unprofitable.

The multiplicative nature of the factors leaves a lot of room for downward movement, Imo. But I am a pessimist by nature, so maybe factor that into your decision making process.
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Old 03-11-2020, 03:48 PM   #3999
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Old 03-11-2020, 04:08 PM   #4000
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I just pulled the trigger and bought back in to 13 stocks. I'm not trying to make a quick buck I'm going to try and hold these stocks for the long hall. I put $1,500.00 in each and plan to add to those holdings as I go forward ending up with about $5,000.00 invested in each. This portfolio will consist of AMD, Chipotle, DocuSign, DDD, LULU, Micron, NVDA, RAMBUS, T, TSN, TSLA, V and Zillow.

Now all you guys and your friends buy the shit up!
**** Chipotle. I boycotted those fools after they went organic/all natural what the **** ever.
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Old 03-11-2020, 04:09 PM   #4001
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Literally studied the market in the process of earning a master's degree.


So no. No I'm not.
You basing that on technicals? Fibonacci? Elliot wave? Wat makes you think that?
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Old 03-11-2020, 04:14 PM   #4002
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discuss thinks the market is his dick

it never goes up
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Old 03-11-2020, 04:16 PM   #4003
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You basing that on technicals? Fibonacci? Elliot wave? Wat makes you think that?
Technical analysis is the modern day equivalent of reading tea leaves.
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Old 03-11-2020, 04:24 PM   #4004
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I think the bottom will be around the last week of this month or early April.

Depending on the effect it has here, I think it’s fair to say the drop will be around 30-35%
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Old 03-11-2020, 04:28 PM   #4005
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About 40% below what the S&P is currently marked at.
I think it will be another 20-25% from current levels.
What Dr. Fauci said today puts us in uncharted waters so who knows.
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