Okay, so what *is* your plan for the 2023 passrush?

[Direckshun]

Alright, it's bleeding into multiple threads, so let's forge a master thread to control all others, and into this thread we will pour our cruelty, our malice, and our will to dominate all life. Truly a thread to rule them all.

You guys shat on me when I wanted to pour two 1sts into Brian Burns. You guys shat on me when I wanted to pour two 1sts into Josh Allen. And just for fun a couple of you guys were jerks when I wanted to go sign Bradley Chubb this coming offseason.

Just a bunch of meanies.

So what is your plan, exactly? This team needs a front four that can get pressure, Karlaftis isn't developing with the speed we'd like, and Jones is the only guy who can get to the QB.

What's your plan?

Here's the free agent passrushers this coming offseason. And the Chiefs do have 11 draft picks, but only one 1st, one 2nd, and one 3rd.

Are you going to burn a 1st? You're probably going to need that 1st (plus additional ammo) to get the offensive tackle you're simultaneously complaining we need to replace Brown at LT. If you take the 1st for DL, you're tagging and/or extending Brown, and you should say so.

I assume you're cutting Frank Clark, so the Chiefs will have about $50m to play with, but this is your 2023 depth chart right now:

DE: Danna, Herring
DT: Jones,
DT:
DE: Karlaftis, Kaindoh

That's it, suckers. You're probably going to need to add two DEs, and three DTs, minimum.

Current Chiefs who will be RFA: Wharton

Current Chiefs who will be FA: Saunders, Nnadi, Dunlap, Stallworth, Shelton, Azur Kamara

So what's your plan? kccrow's? His top three DEs are Karlaftis, Mike Danna, and Dawuane Smoot. I'm underwhelmed and ashamed.

Whatever your plan is, be prepared for me to hate it. I just hate it already.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by JPH83

This is it. This is where he needs to be better. People keep reading the numbers how they want and talking about how he's nearly there. Sure, he is, but good QBs don't care about "nearly" being pressured or DEs "nearly" beating the OT, the ball's gone by that point.

It's also why in the draft they really need to focus on speed this year imo. If I remember people weren't hugely high on guys like Ebikitie and Bonitto and I get it, because you can't see them out there every snap. But man we need some speed and bend, I don't care what Spags "type" is or isn't, just get some juice. I think you can in R2.

Agree. I've said all along - any 'issue' that people have with Karlaftis isn't really with Karlaftis. It's with his supporting cast. The Chiefs need a complementary pass rusher and 'finisher' to go with him.

[JPH83]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Agree. I've said all along - any 'issue' that people have with Karlaftis isn't really with Karlaftis. It's with his supporting cast. The Chiefs need a complementary pass rusher and 'finisher' to go with him.

I think he looks a LOT better this year with any upgrade on the cadaver we have on the other side.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by JPH83

I think he looks a LOT better this year with any upgrade on the cadaver we have on the other side.

2 of his 3 best games this year have come in the 2 games Clark has been out.

Some of that (most of that?) is just development. But it's amazing how little this team misses that slug.

[kccrow]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

I've been wholly content with Karlaftis to this point - to whatever extent I didn't give that impression, that was not my intent.

Though it also seems like I got my numbers wrong, so there's that to contend with.

Karlaftis is a solid player who's only going to get better.

I'm also very content with Karlaftis. I feel like he's developing well and has been affecting the QB pretty regularly. I think the Chiefs got a good one. Imagine a couple of off-seasons in the S&C program. I think he'll be fine.

[RunKC]

Originally Posted by JPH83

This is it. This is where he needs to be better. People keep reading the numbers how they want and talking about how he's nearly there. Sure, he is, but good QBs don't care about "nearly" being pressured or DEs "nearly" beating the OT, the ball's gone by that point.

It's also why in the draft they really need to focus on speed this year imo. If I remember people weren't hugely high on guys like Ebikitie and Bonitto and I get it, because you can't see them out there every snap. But man we need some speed and bend, I don't care what Spags "type" is or isn't, just get some juice. I think you can in R2.

Agh. I’m still pissed that we didn’t get Sam Williams. I mean holy **** man.

6’4”
260
4.46 40
7.03 3 cone
25 bench reps

He was so perfect. He was (Nate Taylor humor here) the white horse walking on a sandy beach. He had to wait for playing time but now he already has 3 sacks. He was killing Aaron Rodgers on Sunday.

I’m a Skyy Moore fan but Sam Williams was my favorite player in the whole damn draft. He was my favorite fit for us and he was there in the mid 2nd rd.

Again….agh. The Cowboys have Micah Parsons and Sam Williams for the next 4 years. That’s gonna be the best in the league.

I’m not sad or bitter or anything.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by RunKC

This is on reddit. Karlaftis is tied with Hutchinson for most pressures but is 4th in pressure rate. This was a copy/paste from PFF

Also the tweet last week showed Karlaftis was 2nd best behind Hutchinson in pass rush reps without stunts or blitzes.

I figured it out; I had sorted by "True Pass Set" performance - i.e. plays that don't include rollouts, screens, etc...

Just a straight up "This offensive lineman is assigned with setting a clean pocket on a straight drop back".

Frankly that stat seems more useful for OL than it does for DL. So here's the chart of total pressures:



And really the distinction does make a little sense - Karlaftis is a 'motor' guy and a smart player; some of those boots, etc... that he gets pressures on are a result of not quitting on a play or sniffing them out. He may be a little better on the 'other' plays than some dudes who win through raw athleticism.

[DJ's left nut]

As for winning percentages; with that same group (70+ pass rush snaps), he's 6th behind Thomas, Williams, Bonitto, Enagbare and Thibodeaux. All those guys have REALLY small sample sizes, but they've all shown some real ability to create havoc as well. We'll see how larger sample sizes influence the numbers and if some of it isn't just a result of a really strong game.

I think the best thing to say about him right now is that he and Hutchinson have virtually identical snap counts and while Hutchinson has 6 sacks, they have the same win rate (11.8%). It suggests a couple of things, IMO.

1) Hutchinson has a little more bend that allows him to finish better than Karlaftis. This is kindof a 'duh' thing given that he was a much more highly touted prospect. He's probably has some traits that George can't match. Okay.

2) The gulf in total sacks doesn't match the gap in total pressures, which tells me he's better, but he ain't SIX TIMES better. And I don't think his sack totals are an outlier either - that's a pace I think Hutchinson can keep up. That's 10-12 sacks on the season for Hutchinson and I think that's probably doable. So if it ain't HIS figure that's the outlier that's creating the odd disparity, it must be Karlaftis's.

Which tells me that the sacks will come. 6-8 seems to still be a reasonable projection. He may be too far behind the 8 ball this year to get there, but I think that's absolutely a reasonable target for him going forward and to put him at that pace from now through the rest of the season means he'd get 3-4 sacks for the remainder of the year? That seems like a pretty good bet.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by RunKC

Agh. I’m still pissed that we didn’t get Sam Williams. I mean holy **** man.

6’4”
260
4.46 40
7.03 3 cone
25 bench reps

He was so perfect. He was (Nate Taylor humor here) the white horse walking on a sandy beach. He had to wait for playing time but now he already has 3 sacks. He was killing Aaron Rodgers on Sunday.

I’m a Skyy Moore fan but Sam Williams was my favorite player in the whole damn draft. He was my favorite fit for us and he was there in the mid 2nd rd.

Again….agh. The Cowboys have Micah Parsons and Sam Williams for the next 4 years. That’s gonna be the best in the league.

I’m not sad or bitter or anything.

We don't talk about Sam Williams anymore...

{sigh}

[DJ's left nut]

Oh, and regarding PFF grades - look at Josh Paschal.

Fewer sacks, lower win rate, more worse 'hurry to other' ratio (because I value hurries less than the other types of pressure for a variety of reasons). Not to mention a more dedicated pass rush role.

There simply isn't a metric whereby he's outperforming Karlaftis - yet his pass rush 'grade' is 10 points higher.

It's hard to put much stock in those grades, man. The raw numbers are useful to pick through, but to say that Karlaftis, who's leading the league in pressures by a rookie, is the third worst pass rusher in that group? I mean that seems pretty damn wonky to me.

[htismaqe]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Oh, and regarding PFF grades - look at Josh Paschal.

Fewer sacks, lower win rate, more worse 'hurry to other' ratio (because I value hurries less than the other types of pressure for a variety of reasons). Not to mention a more dedicated pass rush role.

There simply isn't a metric whereby he's outperforming Karlaftis - yet his pass rush 'grade' is 10 points higher.

It's hard to put much stock in those grades, man. The raw numbers are useful to pick through, but to say that Karlaftis, who's leading the league in pressures by a rookie, is the third worst pass rusher in that group? I mean that seems pretty damn wonky to me.

They have George with 1 more point than Mafe. Mafe hasn't played well at all.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by htismaqe

They have George with 1 more point than Mafe. Mafe hasn't played well at all.

He's been really bad. My memory is that he had a pretty good start in week 1 or 2 and he's just vanished ever since. Hell, maybe that was even a pre-season game.

But it's okay - he has plenty of time. It's not like he's a 24 year old rookie or anything...

[kccrow]

Originally Posted by RunKC

Agh. I’m still pissed that we didn’t get Sam Williams. I mean holy **** man.

6’4”
260
4.46 40
7.03 3 cone
25 bench reps

He was so perfect. He was (Nate Taylor humor here) the white horse walking on a sandy beach. He had to wait for playing time but now he already has 3 sacks. He was killing Aaron Rodgers on Sunday.

I’m a Skyy Moore fan but Sam Williams was my favorite player in the whole damn draft. He was my favorite fit for us and he was there in the mid 2nd rd.

Again….agh. The Cowboys have Micah Parsons and Sam Williams for the next 4 years. That’s gonna be the best in the league.

I’m not sad or bitter or anything.

Tough call. He came with some baggage remember? I was pounded for Sam for a while but I get it.

And then it comes down to choice. If KC stays put instead of trading down, then they are staring at Pickens, Pierce, and Williams as guys that would have been real nice picks at this point.

At WR, I think everyone has been focused on Pickens but the real winning pick was Alec Pierce. No reported baggage and has been as productive as Pickens with less snaps.

I'd have had a hard time taking Sam over either of those WRs at that point. I'd have probably taken Pickens looking back to my thoughts then and probably Pierce in hindsight. I saw Sam as a guy you probably get at the Cook pick or even in round 3.

[The Franchise]

If I'm pissed about missing out on someone....it would be Drake Jackson.

[RunKC]

Originally Posted by kccrow

Tough call. He came with some baggage remember? I was pounded for Sam for a while but I get it.

And then it comes down to choice. If KC stays put instead of trading down, then they are staring at Pickens, Pierce, and Williams as guys that would have been real nice picks at this point.

At WR, I think everyone has been focused on Pickens but the real winning pick was Alec Pierce. No reported baggage and has been as productive as Pickens with less snaps.

I'd have had a hard time taking Sam over either of those WRs at that point. I'd have probably taken Pickens looking back. I saw Sam as a guy you probably get at the Cook pick or even in round 3.

I’d have taken Sam Williams without a second thought. Even with drafting George. It’s a blue chip position.

These 2nd/3rd tier level SEC schools are where all the steals are. Basically the Mississippi schools.

Chris Jones
Willie Gay
Dak Prescott
Gabe Jackson
Montez Sweat
Elgton Jenkins
AJ Brown
DK Metcalf
Dawson Knox
Elijah Moore
Sam Williams

It’s like all the guys the top SEC schools didn’t want. I think Mississippi is the state where the majority of the biggest steals of the draft are.

Even L’Jarius Sneed played in Mississippi

[O.city]

Take the pass rusher over the WR. Andy can get production out of whatever WR.