*** The Official Cowgirls/69'ers GDT ***

[Vladimir_Kyrilytch]

538 dug into this some years ago, the question of 2-point conversion or extra point. They concluded it is completely 50/50:

According to ESPN Stats & Information Group, there have been 1,045 two-point conversion attempts since 2001,1 with teams converting 501 of those tries. That’s a 47.9 percent conversion rate; given that a successful attempt yields 2 points, that means the expected value from an average 2-point try is 0.96 points.

Interestingly, that’s almost exactly what the expected value is from an extra point these days. Since the NFL moved extra-point kicks back to the 15-yard line last season, teams have a 94.4 percent success rate, which means that an extra point has an expected value of between 0.94 and 0.95 points.

This means that, all else being equal, the average team should be indifferent between going for two or kicking an extra point.

So when your kicker is having the issues of Maher or even Butker, the math would clearly say go for it with no hesitation. With KC though, their struggles with gaining short yardage might throw the math back the other way. Maybe.