Call Your Shot: Who will be the Chiefs first pick in the 2025 NFL draft?

[SHOWTIME]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

"Teams aren't overly concerned about an injury with a 20% recovery rate..."

Why the **** not?

Maybe they have access to his medicals, while the rest of us don't?

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by SHOWTIME

Maybe they have access to his medicals, while the rest of us don't?

God almighty, it's like you haven't read a thing over the last 2 months.

You know what we have access to right now? Two things, one rearward facing and one a snapshot.

1) The history of patella injuries says MAYBE 1 in 5 of them come back anywhere near the level they were at

2) Right now, this very second, Josh Simmons is doing squats that demonstrate he's essentially putting NO pressure on his left leg in his strength exercises.

So WHAT can that possibly tell us? What can 'the medicals' possibly show here that demonstrate ANYTHING? If they're silky smooth - no scar tissue and as clean as they can possibly be -- he's STILL only squatting 225 lbs (essentially a one-legged squat) so that 'healthy' knee isn't capable of demonstrating any sort of strength or legitimate explosion right now.

And we see it all the time with injuries. "Structurally sound" pitchers who's surgeries were complete successes and who's MRIs are completely clean just throw 6 mph slower than they used to. RBs and WRs who's imaging comes back spotless simply cannot cut and drive off the leg like they once did.

"Healthy" doens't mean "recovered"

And you cannot -- absolutely CANNOT -- determine recovered in any way a mere 6 mos after the injury. There is nothing at all the medicals can tell us apart from the fact that the surgery didn't fail.

So what? 90% of these surgeries don't fail and the player in question STILL doesn't make it all the way back.

It's reckless to the point of stupid to just handwaive everything we do know in favor of the idea that Brett Veach and/or the team doctors have some sort of prescience that allows them to just know that Josh Simmons will eventually beat the odds. Because prescience is what it will take -- there is zero way to know that with any degree of certainty right now.

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

God almighty, it's like you haven't read a thing over the last 2 months.

You know what we have access to right now? Two things, one rearward facing and one a snapshot.

1) The history of patella injuries says MAYBE 1 in 5 of them come back anywhere near the level they were at

2) Right now, this very second, Josh Simmons is doing squats that demonstrate he's essentially putting NO pressure on his left leg in his strength exercises.

So WHAT can that possibly tell us? What can 'the medicals' possibly show here that demonstrate ANYTHING? If they're silky smooth - no scar tissue and as clean as they can possibly be -- he's STILL only squatting 225 lbs (essentially a one-legged squat) so that 'healthy' knee isn't capable of demonstrating any sort of strength or legitimate explosion right now.

And we see it all the time with injuries. "Structurally sound" pitchers who's surgeries were complete successes and who's MRIs are completely clean just throw 6 mph slower than they used to. RBs and WRs who's imaging comes back spotless simply cannot cut and drive off the leg like they once did.

"Healthy" doens't mean "recovered"

And you cannot -- absolutely CANNOT -- determine recovered in any way a mere 6 mos after the injury. There is nothing at all the medicals can tell us apart from the fact that the surgery didn't fail.

So what? 90% of these surgeries don't fail and the player in question STILL doesn't make it all the way back.

It's reckless to the point of stupid to just handwaive everything we do know in favor of the idea that Brett Veach and/or the team doctors have some sort of prescience that allows them to just know that Josh Simmons will eventually beat the odds. Because prescience is what it will take -- there is zero way to know that with any degree of certainty right now.

The patellar tendon tear seems to be to NFL and NBA athletes what thoracic outlet surgery is to a baseball pitcher/player. They can get healthy again, but they never have the same throwing power again.

[SHOWTIME]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

God almighty, it's like you haven't read a thing over the last 2 months.

You know what we have access to right now? Two things, one rearward facing and one a snapshot.

1) The history of patella injuries says MAYBE 1 in 5 of them come back anywhere near the level they were at

2) Right now, this very second, Josh Simmons is doing squats that demonstrate he's essentially putting NO pressure on his left leg in his strength exercises.

So WHAT can that possibly tell us? What can 'the medicals' possibly show here that demonstrate ANYTHING? If they're silky smooth - no scar tissue and as clean as they can possibly be -- he's STILL only squatting 225 lbs (essentially a one-legged squat) so that 'healthy' knee isn't capable of demonstrating any sort of strength or legitimate explosion right now.

And we see it all the time with injuries. "Structurally sound" pitchers who's surgeries were complete successes and who's MRIs are completely clean just throw 6 mph slower than they used to. RBs and WRs who's imaging comes back spotless simply cannot cut and drive off the leg like they once did.

"Healthy" doens't mean "recovered"

And you cannot -- absolutely CANNOT -- determine recovered in any way a mere 6 mos after the injury. There is nothing at all the medicals can tell us apart from the fact that the surgery didn't fail.

So what? 90% of these surgeries don't fail and the player in question STILL doesn't make it all the way back.

It's reckless to the point of stupid to just handwaive everything we do know in favor of the idea that Brett Veach and/or the team doctors have some sort of prescience that allows them to just know that Josh Simmons will eventually beat the odds. Because prescience is what it will take -- there is zero way to know that with any degree of certainty right now.

Here is a very detailed medical update on top Ohio State offensive tackle Josh Simmons, who suffered a torn patellar tendon last season.

He and I spoke at length this week and this is what he shared…@nflnetwork @OhioStateFB pic.twitter.com/53XcTjhrq4

— StaceyDales (@StaceyDales) March 2, 2025

And he told me he didn't get a normal operation. It was actually much better than anyone would typically get.

Maybe his injury is a partial tear and not nearly as bad. Sorry, but I'd rather go with what the doctor's say than some guy on CP.

Jonathan Jones of CBS Sports reported, "Simmons' knee looks great upon medical rechecks."

Here's the full quote from Jones in his only mock draft of the season, where Simmons lands 13th overall to Miami.

"Multiple sources have indicated Simmons' knee looks great upon medical rechecks, so he passes there. His play is a good scheme fit for Miami too. Many believe there's a chance he could have been OT1 in this draft. I know some teams also wouldn't take him this high, but Miami takes a chance on a position of need."

https://atozsports.com/college-footb...-josh-simmons/

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by SHOWTIME

Maybe his injury is a partial tear and not nearly as bad. Sorry, but I'd rather go with what the doctor's say than some guy on CP.



https://atozsports.com/college-footb...-josh-simmons/

Oh.

Well if you can't trust Simmons and his people, who can you trust...right?

The 'very detailed update' contained 30 seconds of actual information, all of which was secondhand and FROM Josh Simmons. Wow - so detailed.

Dudes are never optimistic, evasive and/or flat out dishonest during draft-season...

I repeat -- he's squatting 225 lbs right now. A month after that report, 225 lbs was what he was squatting after she raved about all the leg work he was doing in early March.

That's not "Trusting some guy on CP". It's simply putting facts to figures. Right now, as of the date of the draft, he's doing his squats on 1 leg. ****ing bang-up reporting from Stacy Dales there -- she obviously nailed it back in early March.

If you believe that's indicative of anything....well like I said, all the Simmons backers have right now is hope.

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by SHOWTIME

Here is a very detailed medical update on top Ohio State offensive tackle Josh Simmons, who suffered a torn patellar tendon last season.

He and I spoke at length this week and this is what he shared…@nflnetwork @OhioStateFB pic.twitter.com/53XcTjhrq4

— StaceyDales (@StaceyDales) March 2, 2025

Maybe his injury is a partial tear and not nearly as bad. Sorry, but I'd rather go with what the doctor's say than some guy on CP.



https://atozsports.com/college-footb...-josh-simmons/

That’s the only reference I’ve seen or heard to “double grafting” the tendon. Interesting. I wonder if that’s new or different from recent repairs.

Regardless, what I and others have been citing is the awful historical precedent here. I don’t need to be a doc or see scans to look at data. And the data is as bad as it can be.

Maybe he’s a unicorn or maybe this is a pioneering new approach that leads to better outcomes for those who get it.

But like DJ said … if he’s doing as well as he reported and so far ahead of schedule … why are his one-leg-squat numbers (and light ones for an nfl dude at that) being reported a month later like they’re a good sign?

Too much crossing the fingers and hoping on this dude for me. That report doesn’t change the equation.

[RunKC]

Listening to Sirius XM draft show. Apparently Derrick Harmon has a lingering shoulder issue that may have him fall a bit.

Reported that more than 1 team suggested he get surgery to fix it

[Sassy Squatch]

Originally Posted by RunKC

Listening to Sirius XM draft show. Apparently Derrick Harmon has a lingering shoulder issue that may have him fall a bit.

Reported that more than 1 team suggested he get surgery to fix it

Oh no. Would be a shame if he lasted to 31.

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by RunKC

Clyde was a ****ing slow midget who ran a 4.57 and couldn’t pass block to save his life.

Comparing that to Henderson is legitimately insane. That’s like comparing a Percheron to a Donkey.

And at 31 we get a RB for 5 years at about $13.5 million total. But hey let’s take a project like Felix again if we get stuck like last time.

Yes, Clyde is a lot different player than Henderson. If the Chiefs were to take Henderson at 31, you'd get a lot of comparisons and complaints, but they're dumb.

And honestly, the same people complaining about getting him at 31 would be super on board with taking him at, say, 34 or 38, after a trade back that nets them a 4th round pick. Which in and of itself is kind of silly.

I think what surprised the team was how limiting Edwards-Helaires' height was to his receiving ability. You watch him in college and see the quickness and shiftiness just cooking LB on angle routes and flats... but his size really dropped that effectiveness at the NFL level. That, and the injury he suffered as rookie. He lost some burst after that, and didn't have enough to beging with to survive it.

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Are you new to draft season? Of COURSE it's all a big group think.

That's why we have people saying that Josh Simmons was a blue-chip prospect, likely OT1 and a potential top 5 pick had he not gotten hurt.

That's just not there. I wanted to talk myself into the idea a couple months ago and started looing at it -- you just cannot reach that conclusion. But draft thy name is Groupthink and once it started to get momentum from someone (who we now KNOW do favors for agents to get information) it bounced around the echo chamber enough to become fact.

This feels so much like the Jeremiah Johnson draft when that guy went from a late 1st round prospect in March to a top THREE possibility in April. Based on NOTHING. It was just draftheads talking themselves into him.

I truly believe that's what we're seeing here with Simmons.

I won't love the idea of taking him at 31, but I'd live with it. If we friggen trade UP to take that guy, In Veach We Trust my ass. His 1st round draft record is....fine. It's about what one would expect. McDuffie, Karlaftis and Worthy look like hits. FAU and MEH are likely misses. And when it comes to 'first selections' made in the 2nd round, you put Hardman and Speaks on there with Bolton. Again - pretty ordinary. Some good, some bad, some meh.

I will absolutely HOPE he works out. I'm most assuredly not going to just assume it.

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Let's be really generous here. I'll borrow your math and then goose it a bit.

As a rule, 1st round picks become starters about 1/2 the time. Let's go ahead and kick that up a bit for the sake of argument to 2/3 and give it 66%.

Now let's take your 1/5 get back to form and goose THAT to 1/4. Shit, let's make it 1/3 to make it sporting.

In that event, the combined probability of Simmons A) being a genuine starting caliber player prior to injury and B) getting BACK to that level is going to be about 22%.

So you have a 1 in 5 chance at that point even when pushing the sliders in Simmons favor. You know what that is? A 4th rounder -- maybe.

I mean there's no way to rationally look at this that makes sense. I mean even if you get stupid with the math and say "Okay, a healthy Simmons had a 75% chance of being a starting caliber LT and Patella injuries have about a 50% return rate" that's going to give you about a 37% shot at the guy being a starter. It's a blatant falsehood and it's STILL about the kind of success rate you'd expect from a mid to late 2nd.

I just do not like Simmons as a first rounder even a little bit. It ignores....everything.

Hope ain't a plan, fellas.

And Hope is all that people are doing when it comes to Josh Simmons.

I just wanted to say, that I have no response to these two posts. They are perfect.

Consider me James Carville in Old School. You're Frank the Tank and you just made a perfect, unassailable argument.

[O.city]

So lets get out ahead of this. If we take Henderson at 31...can we hold him to a Gibbs level or Bijan or no?

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by O.city

So lets get out ahead of this. If we take Henderson at 31...can we hold him to a Gibbs level or Bijan or no?

I mean, Gibbs went 12 and Bijan went 8th.

To get to 12 or 8 from 31 would take next years 1st and probably some change.

So...no.

Holding a guy to the standard of 2 guys who took roughly twice the draft capital to acquire seems...unfair.

[SAGA45]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

I mean, Gibbs went 12 and Bijan went 8th.

To get to 12 or 8 from 31 would take next years 1st and probably some change.

So...no.

Holding a guy to the standard of 2 guys who took roughly twice the draft capital to acquire seems...unfair.

Jonathan Taylor would be a more apt bar and realm of expectation for Henderson in that regard.

[MahomesMagic]

Originally Posted by SAGA45

Jonathan Taylor would be a more apt bar and realm of expectation for Henderson in that regard.

Taylor was a better runner coming out than Henderson.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by MahomesMagic

Taylor was a better runner coming out than Henderson.

Yeah -- I think Breece Hall may be more of a comp?

Was taken around pick 35, IIRC. Very early 2nd. More of an explosive offensive weapon type than a pure 'conventional' 3-down back.

And yeah, I think if you take a RB in the 1st, I don't think that's an unreasonable baseline for him.

Hall put up essentially 1,000 yards rushing and 600 yards receiving in 2023 behind a solid but unspectacular OL (and with obvious QB questions). Did roughly the same rates on lower usage in 2024.

I think you can reasonably ask for 1,500-1,600 yards from scrimmage and 275ish touches (rushing and receiving) from a 1st round RB.

And if you don't think he can give you that, or that you won't ASK him to give you that, you probably shouldn't be looking at Henderson in the 1st.

[Red Dawg]

Just grab a big fatty.