Quote:
Originally Posted by kccrow
The last figures I saw were that 59% of OTs drafted in round 1 end up being successful OTs in the league. I think it was 89% of all offensive linemen drafted in the 1st round that end up being successful offensive linemen. That means a good portion of tackles end up changing positions to be successful picks.
I'd guesstimate that 3/5's of OTs taken in round one are taken to be LTs. If 59% of that 60% are successful, then we have about 35% chance of drafting a LT and that player can stay at LT in the NFL and be successful. I don't think that number approaches 4/5's but if it does then you're looking at 47%. I think it' stands to reason no more than 40% then.
Apply the odds of him beating his injury at least in 2 years, then you're looking at about a 5% chance of hitting. That's better than my lottery example but it's worse than a 7th round pick.
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Josh Simmons is not worth a 7 round pick. That's absurd.