Thanks! And thoughts on the final draft grade?

[fuzzy]

Originally Posted by kccrow

The last figures I saw were that 59% of OTs drafted in round 1 end up being successful OTs in the league. I think it was 89% of all offensive linemen drafted in the 1st round that end up being successful offensive linemen. That means a good portion of tackles end up changing positions to be successful picks.

I'd guesstimate that 3/5's of OTs taken in round one are taken to be LTs. If 59% of that 60% are successful, then we have about 35% chance of drafting a LT and that player can stay at LT in the NFL and be successful. I don't think that number approaches 4/5's but if it does then you're looking at 47%. I think it' stands to reason no more than 40% then.

Apply the odds of him beating his injury at least in 2 years, then you're looking at about a 5% chance of hitting. That's better than my lottery example but it's worse than a 7th round pick.

Josh Simmons is not worth a 7 round pick. That's absurd.

[kccrow]

Originally Posted by fuzzy

Josh Simmons is not worth a 7 round pick. That's absurd.

I didn't say he was "worth a 7th" but his chances of hitting are actually worse than a 7th rounder hitting. When I spoke to this pre-draft, I said I'd take a chance in the 3rd round because I felt like this injury was too much of a risk but the talent is there if it works out.

[fuzzy]

Originally Posted by kccrow

I didn't say he was "worth a 7th" but his chances of hitting are actually worse than a 7th rounder hitting. When I spoke to this pre-draft, I said I'd take a chance in the 3rd round because I felt like this injury was too much of a risk but the talent is there if it works out.

I say his chances of hitting are way better than a 7th rounder.

[kccrow]

Originally Posted by fuzzy

I say his chances of hitting are way better than a 7th rounder.

I guess here's a way to look at it...

At this point, all YOU really get (and ALL of us) is a coin flip. It's yes or no.

The odds, pre-draft, said don't take him so early. That's behind us, Veach, Burkholder, Reid, etc. They made their choice.

Cling to your optimism. We honestly NEED it to work out.

[SAGA45]

Originally Posted by kccrow

The odds, pre-draft, said don't take him so early. That's behind us, Veach, Burkholder, Reid, etc. They made their choice.

A choice based on intimate medical information none of us will ever be privy to as well as their collective experience and expertise, particularly Burkholder's. That's enough to be optimistic for some. All that's left to do now is wait and see.

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by SAGA45

A choice based on intimate medical information none of us will ever be privy to as well as their collective experience and expertise, particularly Burkholder's. That's enough to be optimistic for some. All that's left to do now is wait and see.

I hope they are right. For sure. And I will be THRILLED to be wrong on this. Absolutely thrilled.

But I'm going to be nervous until we see him playing in a real game/real action, and I'm probably going to be nervous about reinjury/injuring other parts of his body/chronic injuries until we have a decent sample of him playing.

I hope they can get him on the field this year/he forces his way onto the field this year, so he can start answering those questions.

[Couch-Potato]

#1 ESPN Power Rankings:

1. Kansas City Chiefs

Post-free agency ranking: 1

Most improved position: Wide receiver

The Chiefs are counting on the return of two top receivers who missed most of last season with injuries. Rashee Rice led the league with 24 catches through the first three games before a season-ending knee injury, while Hollywood Brown played in only two regular-season games because of a sternoclavicular injury. Rice and Brown will combine with Xavier Worthy to give the Chiefs a potent group of wideouts. With the selection of fourth-rounder Jalen Royals, Kansas City also added speed and run-after-the-catch ability on the outside. -- Adam Teicher

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by fuzzy

Josh Simmons is not worth a 7 round pick. That's absurd.

fuzzy’s reading comprehension is actually not worth a 7 round pick.