Starting to think the Chiefs will need to trade down... or...

[Direckshun]

Normally I do not advocate this stuff, because I am usually not a fan of trading down in the first round. But I've been looking over the talent in this upcoming draft and I think this might need to be the case.

First, let's take a look at the elite talent that has no chance of making it out of the first round:

QB Andrew Luck, Stanford
QB Robert Griffin, Baylor
WR Justin Blackmon, Oklahoma State
OT Matt Kalil, USC
CB Morris Claiborne, LSU

The remaining top tier talent doesn't really match up value with what we want, with one major exception.

RB Trent Richardson, Alabama
WR Alshon Jeffrey, South Carolina
OT Jonathan Martin, Stanford
OT Riley Reiff, Iowa
OG David DeCastro, Stanford
DT Devin Still, Penn State
DE Quentin Coples, North Carolina
ILB Luke Kuechly, Boston College
CB Dre Kirkpatrick, Alabama
CB Janoris Jenkins, North Alabama

Scott Pioli is a legit believer in draft value, though he has broken with it before when he drafted Eric Berry. I don't think he breaks it two out of three years however, so players like Richardson, DeCastro, and Kuechly don't really seem to warrant a Top 12 pick.

It also seems to eliminate right tackle. It's been two years of Pioli passing over right tackle after right tackle, even with last year's great prospects like Carimi and Castonzo. So I think that takes Martin (who honestly isn't right tackle material to me) and Reiff out of the equation.

Meanwhile, we can eliminate the players that don't fit our defense (Still, Coples).

That leaves us with the corners. You can take Jenkins out of consideration since there is no way Pioli wants a guy with his character questions.

Kirkpatrick is a perfect fit for this team ONLY IF this team lets Brandon Carr walk. If Carr stays on the roster, we really have no need for Kirkpatrick, either.

That leaves me to believe the Chiefs will almost certainly try to trade down until they get a tackle or one of the lesser valued positions (ILB, RB, NT) at a much better value.