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Reload this Page Chiefs Wow. Denver is an 8.5 point favorite?
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View Poll Results: Before reading this, what point spread would you have guessed?
Virtuous Chiefs by 7+ 8 5.88%
Virtuous Chiefs by 5 to 6.5 2 1.47%
Virtuous Chiefs by 3 to 4.5 13 9.56%
Virtuous Chiefs by 0.5 to 2.5 1 0.74%
Push 4 2.94%
Cheating Broncos by 0.5 to 2.5 1 0.74%
Cheating Broncos by 3 to 4.5 26 19.12%
Cheating Broncos by 5 to 6.5 29 21.32%
Cheating Broncos by 7+ 49 36.03%
I don't deal with math and probabilities. I hire people for that. 3 2.21%
Voters: 136. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 11-13-2013, 12:54 PM  
Rain Man Rain Man is offline
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Wow. Denver is an 8.5 point favorite?
Maybe it's discussed in a thread somewhere, but I didn't see it and I like the limelight of having a thread with my name on it.

I figured the Broncos would be favored, but I would have expected 5 points or so. Not 8.5. They obviously know something about the officiating that's not public.

http://www.arrowheadpride.com/2013/1...read-favorites

The Denver Broncos will open Sunday Night Football against the Chiefs in Week 11 as an 8.5-point favorite, according to pregame.com.


It's at 8 and 9.5 in other places.

One big question that weighs into this is the health of Peyton Manning. Early signs are that he's going to be fine but an MRI is coming. That is the biggest thing remaining that could affect the line.

Last week I asked the guys over at Odds Shark what the line on the Chiefs-Broncos game would be. The official line wasn't up yet but our guy there polled two oddsmakers and they both said -6.5 for the Broncos. The difference between -6.5 and -8.5 is huge considering a lot of games end in a seven point difference. The Chargers lost to the Broncos by eight points last Sunday so KC would have to perform that well to have a shot at covering.

But we don't really care about covering. We care about the Chiefs winning. Their 9-0 record speaks for itself but oddsmakers clearly feel the Broncos are the better team here. Not that this should surprise anyone. We've known all along that folks think the Broncos are better. On Sunday night, we finally get to put this question to rest.
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Old 11-13-2013, 02:30 PM   #61
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Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud View Post
http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/den...weather/347810

I hope the forecast doesn't change...
I do.


I hope it gets worse.
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Old 11-13-2013, 02:30 PM   #62
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Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud View Post
http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/den...weather/347810

I hope the forecast doesn't change...
The excuses for the impending Denver loss are really starting to pile up.
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Old 11-13-2013, 02:30 PM   #63
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As of right now, it'll likely be in the 20's on Sunday, with rain and snow.

Which team does that favor?
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Old 11-13-2013, 02:30 PM   #64
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The line isn't calculated based on who Vegas thinks will win. It's based on where the bets are going and it's designed to move them as close to 50-50 as possible/this is a recording...
But the initial line is set based on analysis and who is favored. Betting makes it move.
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Old 11-13-2013, 02:31 PM   #65
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Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud View Post
As of right now, it'll likely be in the 20's on Sunday, with rain and snow.

Which team does that favor?
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Originally Posted by htismaqe View Post
That's great news.
If you are trying to cover WR's who run short routes with quick cuts, it could make for a long, long day.
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Old 11-13-2013, 02:32 PM   #66
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But the initial line is set based on analysis and who is favored. Betting makes it move.
Yes, thank you. That's a better way of putting it.
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Old 11-13-2013, 02:32 PM   #67
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The Chiefs have forced at least 1 fumble in 7 of their 9 games. In the 2 games where they didn't force a single fumble, they had 2 interceptions and 3 interceptions, respectively.

In addition, they've yet to allow more than 17 points to anybody.

I don't think they have much chance to beat Manning at Mile High but this defense is no fluke.
Don't get me wrong, I think the defense is legit - not a fluke.
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Old 11-13-2013, 02:32 PM   #68
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Pey is dogshit in the cold weather.

Prepare for a LOT of Knowshon in the middle,which just so happens to be where other teams fist us on a regular basis.
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Old 11-13-2013, 02:33 PM   #69
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Originally Posted by mr. tegu View Post
The excuses for the impending Denver loss are really starting to pile up.
They are?
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Old 11-13-2013, 02:33 PM   #70
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If you are trying to cover WR's who run short routes with quick cuts, it could make for a long, long day.
A cold, wet field doesn't help with "quick cuts" at all.
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Old 11-13-2013, 02:34 PM   #71
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Originally Posted by Mile High Mania View Post
They are?
Not from you, but there are some that Knowmo is stashing away. Peytons ankles, cold/bad weather, no John Fox, Bowe should't be playing etc.....
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Old 11-13-2013, 02:34 PM   #72
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Originally Posted by Mile High Mania View Post
Don't get me wrong, I think the defense is legit - not a fluke.
And one can argue that the defense is directly responsible for at least 7 of their wins.

If the defense is legit, and they're 9-0 because of it, there's not a single thing flukey about it.
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Old 11-13-2013, 02:35 PM   #73
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Originally Posted by notorious View Post
Pey is dogshit in the cold weather.

Prepare for a LOT of Knowshon in the middle,which just so happens to be where other teams fist us on a regular basis.
Yeah, he was horrific last year in mid/late Nov and Dec.
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Old 11-13-2013, 02:35 PM   #74
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Originally Posted by mr. tegu View Post
The Chiefs have won every road game by at least two scores.

I am seeing over 60% of the money going to the Chiefs. The line has moved accordingly to an 8 point spread.
You can't honestly think that the game in Buffalo should have ended in a win if the Bills didn't hand the game to us?
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Old 11-13-2013, 02:36 PM   #75
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Originally Posted by htismaqe View Post
And one can argue that the defense is directly responsible for at least 7 of their wins.

If the defense is legit, and they're 9-0 because of it, there's not a single thing flukey about it.
It's been a strong run, I just don't know that you can expect that to hold .. at some point they have to win convincingly on the road especially because of the offense.
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