Royals (New) 2013 Kansas City Royals Repository - Page 176

duncan_idaho · 08-15-2013, 08:13 AM

New thread, this time with more burst.

Proposed 2013 Slogan: Tigers: They're what's for dinner
Actual 2013 Slogan: Come to Play
A better, more accurate, or alternative slogan: All in, no panic, we promise.

Dayton Moore has pushed all his chips in and is riding on King/Jack suited, hoping it comes together, he gets some good luck, and he hits the nuts by the river card. There's potential, oh yes, there's potential. There's also risk.

At the midway point, Dayton is left counting on the river card. The flop and turn didn't help him, and he's looking at the Tigers holding a pair of Queens and the Indians holding a pair of 9s. His 2013 plan hasn't failed - yet - but the odds are not in his favor.

Burning questions updates below.

Burning Questions for 2013:

1) Will the improve rotation be improved enough? Does James Shields pitch like a fringe No. 1 away from Tampa Bay? Does Ervin Santana pitch to his highest upside in his walk year? Can Jeremy Guthrie build on his strong performance as a Royal in 2012? Can Wade Davis bring his new mentality- and velocity - back to the rotation?

Midseason check-in: Yes, the rotation is certainly improved enough. Shields has pitched like a fringe No. 1 and Santana is having his best season. Guthrie has horrible peripherals but has continued to perform well at his home park and eat innings on the road. Davis brought neither his kick-ass mentality or improved velocity back to the rotation and is in Luke Hochevar/Hiram Davies territory.

2) When will Luke Hochevar be shown the door?
Midseason check-in: It appears, never, at this point. Hochevar has been solid in non-leverage situations, though pretty much every time he has been used with men on base in an inning, it has been a disaster.

3) Does Hosmer bounce back?
Midseason check-in: It took some time, but Hosmer's performance from June 1 on is probably the most encouraging thing about the 2013 season so far.
4) Can Moustakas hit for a whole season like he did in the first half of 2012?
Midseason check-in: Nope. Moustakas was god-awful, then great for about 3 weeks, then god-awful again. He has been better since he started working with Brett and Grafol but still has a long way to go.
5) Who regresses?
Midseason check-in: Welp, Alicides Escobar is not a surprising name here (though Yost's stubborn insistence on hitting him second is ridiculous). Billy Butler is a surprise. He isn't having a terrible year - still contributing a lot to the offense - but he's not hitting for the average or power he has displayed over the past several years.
6) Who plays 2B?
Midseason check-in: A whole bunch of people, and not that great. Gio is at least getting a shot, though he once again is not doing much with it.
7) Can Jeff Francoeur be at least replacement level, rather than epic horrible level?
Midseason check-in: Hahahahahahahahahahaha
8) Will Dayton Moore survive to see 2014?
Midseason check-in: Outlook uncertain. Probably still around, unless the team completely tanks in the second half and he does something foolish. My guess - he sacrifices Ned Yost this offseason and gets one more shot with a new manager in 2014.
9) Will Danny Duffy come back healthy? And if he does, is he the same, better or worse?
Midseason check-in: Yes. Velocity looks the same, and it looks likely he is the same guy as before.
10) And the big one: Has KC added enough to run down the big-money Detroit Tigers?
Midseason check-in: Doesn't look like it, does it?

Archie F. Swin · 11-26-2013, 02:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Strongside

What if he's the curse that's been holding the team down this whole time?

I moved out of the Royals Kingdom in May of '86

Strongside · 11-26-2013, 02:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Archie F. Swin

I moved out of the Royals Kingdom in May of '86

I was born a week after they won the WS. I AM TEH CURSE.

**ChiTown** · 11-26-2013, 02:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by alnorth

The strength of the team is RP. We can afford to give up one of them to get an adequate RF.

This. We have Righties on top of Righties. Time to parlay some of that strength into getting some Corner OF help, or a 2B

**ChiTown** · 11-26-2013, 02:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Strongside

I was born a week after they won the WS. I AM TEH CURSE.

I was in College when the Royals won their WS. I AM TEH OLDE.

duncan_idaho · 11-26-2013, 02:36 PM

I can't quite believe that's all Colorado would wasn't, but that's a deal you do in a heartbeat if available.

Coors affect aside, Fowler is still an everyday CF who can steal 20 bags and hit 15 bombs while playing average defense.

I don't think Cain hits well enough to be an everyday RF, and his D was SO good in Cf. But if you can get Fowler for that low price... Well, figure it out later.

eazyb81 · 11-26-2013, 02:40 PM

Fowler is set to make $7.35 million in 2014 and has another year of team control in 2015. He's been a 2.3 WAR player over the last three seasons.

Are we sure he's an net upgrade over what we have now in RF when including his salary? The Lough/Maxwell platoon performed just as well at a fraction of the cost.

siberian khatru · 11-26-2013, 02:55 PM

I'm all for trading bullpen arms, but is Fowler really an upgrade? He's .700 OPS away from Coors, and Fangraphs has him as a career negative-UZR.

Also, read this:

http://www.purplerow.com/2013/10/31/...-dexter-fowler

Fowler, however, will confound me forever.

As a surprise Opening Day roster callup, Fowler was supposed to be a whiz in center field, a terror on the basepaths, and a perfect leadoff hitter who can take walks and drive balls into the gap. Instead, he has rated poorly with defensive metrics his entire career and has yet to look comfortable stealing bases. A switch hitter, he has spent entire seasons performing much better from the right side of the plate, only to reverse himself and hit much better from the other side.

Fowler's raw skill excited yet was prone to extreme streakiness, earning him a month-long demotion to AAA in his first 3 MLB seasons. He finally stayed in the big leagues in 2012 and looked prime to finally break out in 2013. His name was prevalent in trade rumors in the offseason, but the Braves, Nationals and Phillies elected to fill their center field vacancies with B.J. Upton, Denard Span and Ben Revere, respectively.

In early April, Fowler made those teams look foolish. Dexter homered in 4 of his first 6 games, then added a two-home-run game in Petco Park in the tenth game giving him a .325/.386/.825 line with 6 HR just 10 games into the season. He added two more in April and sported a 172 wRC+ despite a below-career-average BABIP.

Of course, nothing makes sense with Fowler, and his 2013 season reflected his career-to-date variances, only to new and confounding extremes. The home runs stopped coming. Fowler managed just four more the rest of the season. Meanwhile, he re-established his base-stealing ability, posting the most stolen bases since his rookie year. IN ALL, FOWLER MANAGED JUST 33 EXTRA BASE HITS, SHATTERING HIS CAREER-LOW (40, 2010).
His gap-driving ability and speed ceased to be a weapon, as the one-time Nation League triples champion managed just three three-baggers, one more than Chris Nelson. The lack of triples did not translate to an increase in doubles either, as Fowler managed just 18, a career low and just one more than Charlie Blackmon. In all, Fowler managed just 33 extra base hits, shattering his career-low (40, 2010).

So much for the guy that was basically Barry Bonds in April. In summation, Fowler brought speed and power fans have either never seen or had not seen in a long time from him, yet he had his worst ISO since his rookie year. Okay.

The other wrinkle in Fowler's season was repeated injuries. Fowler lost two days in Spring Training to a sprained ankle. In season, he missed a game in early May due to a sore hip, four games in July with a hand injury following a HBP, then 14 games with a sore wrist and 14 games with a knee sprain.

After everything came out in the wash, Fowler ended up with a season worth roughly 2.0 WAR, which is slightly below what he has been over the last two years. Given 2013 was Fowler's age 27 season, that is a bit of a disappointment, but he still managed to be quite valuable.

Grade: B-

... The evaluation of what Fowler is worth is tricky though. The defensive metrics don't square with his reputation in center field, and his wildly varied Major League resume will lead to several different opinions on who he is.

**lewdog** · 11-26-2013, 03:00 PM

Trading some relievers for an ACTUAL middle infielder is always a win. Throw Wade ****ing Davis in as well. I'd love Kendrick here.

duncan_idaho · 11-26-2013, 03:29 PM

One other thing ... Having Fowler and Cain would mean one can be traded. If its a straight swap for, say, Crow, I think that's a more valuable trade chip than a relief pitcher.

Fowler also has had success leading off in the past.

Not a guaranteed upgrade or fix, but still a deal you make if you can.

WhawhaWhat · 11-26-2013, 03:31 PM

#Royals trade C George Kottaras to Cubs for cash considerations.
— Bob Dutton (@Royals_Report) November 26, 2013

OmahaChief · 11-26-2013, 03:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by WhawhaWhat

#Royals trade C George Kottaras to Cubs for cash considerations.
— Bob Dutton (@Royals_Report) November 26, 2013

Dang. Who is going to pitch hit to draw walks now?

WhawhaWhat · 11-26-2013, 03:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by OmahaChief

Dang. Who is going to pitch hit to draw walks now?

The Royals prefer that no one walks.

siberian khatru · 11-26-2013, 03:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

One other thing ... Having Fowler and Cain would mean one can be traded. If its a straight swap for, say, Crow, I think that's a more valuable trade chip than a relief pitcher.

Fowler also has had success leading off in the past.

Not a guaranteed upgrade or fix, but still a deal you make if you can.

Or you can package Dyson, Lough or Maxwell with somebody else for ... a 2B or SP?

I'm not against Fowler per se, but like Vargas, I'd prefer to see it as part of a master plan to move toward shoring up other weaknesses. I would hate to think DM sees Fowler and says, "Aha, fixed!"

Archie F. Swin · 11-26-2013, 03:46 PM

Santana and now Kottaras?.....this team is now clearly lacking in the swag dept

**lewdog** · 11-26-2013, 03:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Archie F. Swin

Santana and now Kottaras?.....this team is now clearly lacking in the swag dept

We've still got Cain's pimp limp!

08-15-2013, 08:13 AM
duncan_idaho M-I-Z-Z-O-U Join Date: Apr 2001 Location: Kansas City Casino cash: $1400308	(New) 2013 Kansas City Royals Repository New thread, this time with more burst. Proposed 2013 Slogan: Tigers: They're what's for dinner Actual 2013 Slogan: Come to Play A better, more accurate, or alternative slogan: All in, no panic, we promise. Dayton Moore has pushed all his chips in and is riding on King/Jack suited, hoping it comes together, he gets some good luck, and he hits the nuts by the river card. There's potential, oh yes, there's potential. There's also risk. At the midway point, Dayton is left counting on the river card. The flop and turn didn't help him, and he's looking at the Tigers holding a pair of Queens and the Indians holding a pair of 9s. His 2013 plan hasn't failed - yet - but the odds are not in his favor. Burning questions updates below. Burning Questions for 2013: 1) Will the improve rotation be improved enough? Does James Shields pitch like a fringe No. 1 away from Tampa Bay? Does Ervin Santana pitch to his highest upside in his walk year? Can Jeremy Guthrie build on his strong performance as a Royal in 2012? Can Wade Davis bring his new mentality- and velocity - back to the rotation? Midseason check-in: Yes, the rotation is certainly improved enough. Shields has pitched like a fringe No. 1 and Santana is having his best season. Guthrie has horrible peripherals but has continued to perform well at his home park and eat innings on the road. Davis brought neither his kick-ass mentality or improved velocity back to the rotation and is in Luke Hochevar/Hiram Davies territory. 2) When will Luke Hochevar be shown the door? Midseason check-in: It appears, never, at this point. Hochevar has been solid in non-leverage situations, though pretty much every time he has been used with men on base in an inning, it has been a disaster. 3) Does Hosmer bounce back? Midseason check-in: It took some time, but Hosmer's performance from June 1 on is probably the most encouraging thing about the 2013 season so far. 4) Can Moustakas hit for a whole season like he did in the first half of 2012? Midseason check-in: Nope. Moustakas was god-awful, then great for about 3 weeks, then god-awful again. He has been better since he started working with Brett and Grafol but still has a long way to go. 5) Who regresses? Midseason check-in: Welp, Alicides Escobar is not a surprising name here (though Yost's stubborn insistence on hitting him second is ridiculous). Billy Butler is a surprise. He isn't having a terrible year - still contributing a lot to the offense - but he's not hitting for the average or power he has displayed over the past several years. 6) Who plays 2B? Midseason check-in: A whole bunch of people, and not that great. Gio is at least getting a shot, though he once again is not doing much with it. 7) Can Jeff Francoeur be at least replacement level, rather than epic horrible level? Midseason check-in: Hahahahahahahahahahaha 8) Will Dayton Moore survive to see 2014? Midseason check-in: Outlook uncertain. Probably still around, unless the team completely tanks in the second half and he does something foolish. My guess - he sacrifices Ned Yost this offseason and gets one more shot with a new manager in 2014. 9) Will Danny Duffy come back healthy? And if he does, is he the same, better or worse? Midseason check-in: Yes. Velocity looks the same, and it looks likely he is the same guy as before. 10) And the big one: Has KC added enough to run down the big-money Detroit Tigers? Midseason check-in: Doesn't look like it, does it?
Posts: 21,166

11-26-2013, 02:36 PM	#2630
duncan_idaho M-I-Z-Z-O-U Join Date: Apr 2001 Location: Kansas City Casino cash: $1400308	I can't quite believe that's all Colorado would wasn't, but that's a deal you do in a heartbeat if available. Coors affect aside, Fowler is still an everyday CF who can steal 20 bags and hit 15 bombs while playing average defense. I don't think Cain hits well enough to be an everyday RF, and his D was SO good in Cf. But if you can get Fowler for that low price... Well, figure it out later. __________________ "You gotta love livin', cause dying is a pain in the ass." ---- Sinatra
Posts: 21,166

11-26-2013, 02:40 PM	#2631
eazyb81 The Illuminati Join Date: Oct 2004 Location: the road less traveled Casino cash: $10004900	Fowler is set to make $7.35 million in 2014 and has another year of team control in 2015. He's been a 2.3 WAR player over the last three seasons. Are we sure he's an net upgrade over what we have now in RF when including his salary? The Lough/Maxwell platoon performed just as well at a fraction of the cost.
Posts: 12,033

11-26-2013, 02:55 PM	#2632
siberian khatru 21st Century Schizoid Fan Join Date: Jul 2002 Location: The Gates of Delirium Casino cash: $2184950	I'm all for trading bullpen arms, but is Fowler really an upgrade? He's .700 OPS away from Coors, and Fangraphs has him as a career negative-UZR. Also, read this: http://www.purplerow.com/2013/10/31/...-dexter-fowler Fowler, however, will confound me forever. As a surprise Opening Day roster callup, Fowler was supposed to be a whiz in center field, a terror on the basepaths, and a perfect leadoff hitter who can take walks and drive balls into the gap. Instead, he has rated poorly with defensive metrics his entire career and has yet to look comfortable stealing bases. A switch hitter, he has spent entire seasons performing much better from the right side of the plate, only to reverse himself and hit much better from the other side. Fowler's raw skill excited yet was prone to extreme streakiness, earning him a month-long demotion to AAA in his first 3 MLB seasons. He finally stayed in the big leagues in 2012 and looked prime to finally break out in 2013. His name was prevalent in trade rumors in the offseason, but the Braves, Nationals and Phillies elected to fill their center field vacancies with B.J. Upton, Denard Span and Ben Revere, respectively. In early April, Fowler made those teams look foolish. Dexter homered in 4 of his first 6 games, then added a two-home-run game in Petco Park in the tenth game giving him a .325/.386/.825 line with 6 HR just 10 games into the season. He added two more in April and sported a 172 wRC+ despite a below-career-average BABIP. Of course, nothing makes sense with Fowler, and his 2013 season reflected his career-to-date variances, only to new and confounding extremes. The home runs stopped coming. Fowler managed just four more the rest of the season. Meanwhile, he re-established his base-stealing ability, posting the most stolen bases since his rookie year. IN ALL, FOWLER MANAGED JUST 33 EXTRA BASE HITS, SHATTERING HIS CAREER-LOW (40, 2010). His gap-driving ability and speed ceased to be a weapon, as the one-time Nation League triples champion managed just three three-baggers, one more than Chris Nelson. The lack of triples did not translate to an increase in doubles either, as Fowler managed just 18, a career low and just one more than Charlie Blackmon. In all, Fowler managed just 33 extra base hits, shattering his career-low (40, 2010). So much for the guy that was basically Barry Bonds in April. In summation, Fowler brought speed and power fans have either never seen or had not seen in a long time from him, yet he had his worst ISO since his rookie year. Okay. The other wrinkle in Fowler's season was repeated injuries. Fowler lost two days in Spring Training to a sprained ankle. In season, he missed a game in early May due to a sore hip, four games in July with a hand injury following a HBP, then 14 games with a sore wrist and 14 games with a knee sprain. After everything came out in the wash, Fowler ended up with a season worth roughly 2.0 WAR, which is slightly below what he has been over the last two years. Given 2013 was Fowler's age 27 season, that is a bit of a disappointment, but he still managed to be quite valuable. Grade: B- ... The evaluation of what Fowler is worth is tricky though. The defensive metrics don't square with his reputation in center field, and his wildly varied Major League resume will lead to several different opinions on who he is.
Posts: 69,329

11-26-2013, 03:00 PM	#2633
lewdog Mod Team Join Date: Sep 2011 Location: Valley of the hot as **** Casino cash: $1541900	Trading some relievers for an ACTUAL middle infielder is always a win. Throw Wade ****ing Davis in as well. I'd love Kendrick here.
Posts: 45,678

11-26-2013, 03:29 PM	#2634
duncan_idaho M-I-Z-Z-O-U Join Date: Apr 2001 Location: Kansas City Casino cash: $1400308	One other thing ... Having Fowler and Cain would mean one can be traded. If its a straight swap for, say, Crow, I think that's a more valuable trade chip than a relief pitcher. Fowler also has had success leading off in the past. Not a guaranteed upgrade or fix, but still a deal you make if you can. __________________ "You gotta love livin', cause dying is a pain in the ass." ---- Sinatra
Posts: 21,166

11-26-2013, 03:31 PM	#2635
WhawhaWhat MVP Join Date: Feb 2013 Casino cash: $1221116	#Royals trade C George Kottaras to Cubs for cash considerations. — Bob Dutton (@Royals_Report) November 26, 2013 Last edited by WhawhaWhat; 11-26-2013 at 03:37 PM..
Posts: 17,401

11-26-2013, 03:46 PM	#2639
Archie F. Swin This is the way Join Date: Sep 2000 Location: Wichita Falls, Texas Casino cash: $9975673	Santana and now Kottaras?.....this team is now clearly lacking in the swag dept __________________ "No Two People Will Do It The Same, You got It Down...When You Appear to Be In Pain!"
Posts: 11,800