Alex Smith did, does, and will always suck. (part 2)

[Hammock Parties]

Old thread is archived here.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by OnTheWarpath58

My memory isn't what it used to be, but I recall most of the "doubters" - at least the doubters that are respected posters around here - expecting him to be in that 3500/25 range as well.

So those folks have been spot on.

The issue was the compensation, and whether that style/level of play would be good enough when it mattered most.

And that's still TBD.

I think (not you in particular) that alot of the people to said I "expect" that, were being a little facetious if you will, setting the bar a bit higher. Maybe i'm off there, and it's been a while since that went down.

[htismaqe]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

And now they want to give credit to everyone but Smith. "Oh, well Reid told him to change his game..." No - that's not what happened at all. What happened is exactly what the guy that developed him into a #1 overall draft pick said would happen 8 years ago. What happened is what many of us that were okay with the acquisition said would happen.

Must be the reason why I've said "And to his credit, Alex Smith has…" a half dozen times in this thread.

Again, not sure why you're quoting me.

[OnTheWarpath15]

Originally Posted by O.city

It just depends really.

If he does end up being the guy he's been the past 4 or 5 games, I don't think thats settling for "good enough", I think that you're legitimately paying 50 cents on the dollar for a QB thats just good. Not elite like Rodgers (yeah, we'd all love to have that right?) but a damn good franchise QB.

Maybe best option available wasn't really what they were wanting or looking for, maybe they wanted best option period and they got it. Time will tell.

But it again comes down to what you are paying and what you are getting. If we get a damn good QB for what you are suggesting, that allows us to load up the team around the guy. I'm fine with that, thats good enough to win and win big with.

If we're paying that for something that "good enough", it gets a little muddier.

I don't care about the money as much as I care about the commitment.

And with the new CBA, you'd actually be paying a newly drafted, elite QB much, much less for more a much bigger payoff down the road.

I'd rather pay $20M a year for an elite QB than .50 on the dollar for "good enough" - but that's just me.

But again, my concern is that if we extend him, we never try to improve at the position. Scrub late round/UDFA lottery tickets aren't going to cut it.

[htismaqe]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Okay - so do you believe this is the new normal for Alex Smith?

No, I don't.

But THIS guy does.

Now you see where I'm coming from?

Originally Posted by JENKINSWINS

If the 49ers let him play the way he did against New Orleans all season long, it would have looked like how he's playing now. Earlier this season EVERYONE on the team was still trying to figure out this offense (most of you can't understand this). Now that they have more time in this offense EVERYONE has a better idea of what to do and where to be, again it takes EVERYONE not just one person to run a smooth offense.

So it may appear that he's playing better, but it's only because EVERYONE else is as well. His numbers look better now because he doesn't have the benefit of a good run game so he's passing more. Gore and the 49ers offensive line are built to run and Reid loves to pass.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by OnTheWarpath58

I don't care about the money as much as I care about the commitment.

And with the new CBA, you'd actually be paying a newly drafted, elite QB much, much less for more a much bigger payoff down the road.

I'd rather pay $20M a year for an elite QB than .50 on the dollar for "good enough" - but that's just me.

But again, my concern is that if we extend him, we never try to improve at the position. Scrub late round/UDFA lottery tickets aren't going to cut it.

Sure, but who's paying that for elite QB play?

The Broncos, Pats are getting what they're paying for.

I'd rather pay 20 million for elite to, but if I'm paying that I damn sure better get elite. Not good, but elite, cause thats gonna seriously hamstring me down the road.

I'm saying that, again, if he is what he's showing to be right now, you get him cheap and don't really have to look to upgrade. Yeah, if some opportunity arises that you cna't turn down, do it.

But the Alex Smith of the last 4 or 5 games is a potential top 10 QB. You can win and win when it counts with that without paying him 20 million per year.

For instance, if we get Smith for a deal like DJ said, we could add him, and potentially 2 other relaly good pieces in the offseason in free agency. I'm all for that.

[htismaqe]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

The folks that were pissing and moaning about the Smith pickup were simply wrong about it.

Yep, that's me. I absolutely was wrong.

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by ChiefsandO'sfan

Alex Smith could be perfect in the wild card game and the Chiefs lose 35-28. No matter what Alex does some fans will never be happy with him.

No one who a) doubts Alex Smith; b) applies logic and data to decisions/opinions could honestly say they were upset he didn't win that game, if he truly played a perfect game and the defense let him down.

I understand that B might be a foreign concept to some. But if Smith and the offense are good enough to win against an elite, playoff-level team and let down by the defense, I will take that as a positive sign for years to come. And fully jump on board with using him as more than a stop-gap.

[BigCatDaddy]

Originally Posted by Mac-NinersChiefs

Charles is obviously a great player regardless, but his point was that people overlook the importance of a QB's ability to diagnose a defense pre-snap and put the offense in the best position for plays to succeed. Alex has been well documented as a poor man's Peyton Manning in this aspect of QB play. He's really just a notch below Manning in this aspect. He reads defenses well, and can adjust his players according to what he sees.

So yeah, Smith does have an impact on JC's runs... likely just as Cassell and whoever else did.. but Alex can also throw the ball well and handle situations far better than the Cassells of the league.

You do realize Charles is rushing for a career low YPC under the master diagnoser this year, right?

09 5.9
10 6.4
11 Injured
12 5.3
13 4.8

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by OnTheWarpath58

My memory isn't what it used to be, but I recall most of the "doubters" - at least the doubters that are respected posters around here - expecting him to be in that 3500/25 range as well.

So those folks have been spot on.

The issue was the compensation, and whether that style/level of play would be good enough when it mattered most.

And that's still TBD.

Bolded: Exactly.

Until the past 4 games, Alex Smith had been a competent, starting NFL QB. Fine. OK. Not great, but solid. And was somewhere between the 15th-20th best starter in the league.

Hell, until the last two games, those were the types of numbers he was putting up. QB rating in the 80s. 60ish completion percentage. Avoiding risks, while sacrificing some big play potential. Numbers that COULD have been replicated in many different, less costly ways

If Alex Smith continues to play at his recent level - which is firmly top half in the league rather than bottom half - the compensation becomes much less of a sticking point, and confidence in success when it matters goes way up.

I know DJ thinks what we've seen recently is just Alex being Alex (over the past 5 years), but I don't agree with that.

I think there's a sizeable difference between 09 and 10 Alex and 11 and 12 Alex. And one just as large between the guy we've seen the past 4 games (or even since the bye) and the guy under center for San Fran in 11 and 12.

He's been much more willing to throw the ball beyond 10 yards since the bye (with Oakland apparently being an exception, though an understandable one. If they can't stop one play, keep running it). That was obvious in both Denver games, against Washington, and in what I saw vs. San Diego.

Makes a difference.

[Sandy Vagina]

Originally Posted by BigCatDaddy

You do realize Charles is rushing for a career low YPC under the master diagnoser this year, right?

09 5.9
10 6.4
11 Injured
12 5.3
13 4.8

Not suggesting that ALL of JC's production comes from the playcalls... it does take OL blocking to assist greatly in this. It does also involve reading the lanes and breaking tackles.

[BigCatDaddy]

Originally Posted by Mac-NinersChiefs

Not suggesting that ALL of JC's production comes from the playcalls... it does take OL blocking to assist greatly in this. It does also involve reading the lanes and breaking tackles.

So you are admitting his running production isn't likely Alex related then since it's actually declined, yes? I'd credit Alex and Andy with the catches, but Charles has always been a dynamic runner no matter how shitty of a coach, QB, or line we've had.

[htismaqe]

Originally Posted by Mac-NinersChiefs

Not suggesting that ALL of JC's production comes from the playcalls... it does take OL blocking to assist greatly in this. It does also involve reading the lanes and breaking tackles.

You should be a politician.

You're completely full of shit.

[OnTheWarpath15]

Originally Posted by htismaqe

You should be a politician.

You're completely full of shit.

[Sandy Vagina]

Originally Posted by BigCatDaddy

So you are admitting his running production isn't likely Alex related then since it's actually declined, yes? I'd credit Alex and Andy with the catches, but Charles has always been a dynamic runner no matter how shitty of a coach, QB, or line we've had.

bah..... you're just being deliberately obtuse and difficult.. no problem. No one's ever heard of a QB that reads a D and changes things up.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

Bolded: Exactly.

Until the past 4 games, Alex Smith had been a competent, starting NFL QB. Fine. OK. Not great, but solid. And was somewhere between the 15th-20th best starter in the league.

Hell, until the last two games, those were the types of numbers he was putting up. QB rating in the 80s. 60ish completion percentage. Avoiding risks, while sacrificing some big play potential. Numbers that COULD have been replicated in many different, less costly ways

If Alex Smith continues to play at his recent level - which is firmly top half in the league rather than bottom half - the compensation becomes much less of a sticking point, and confidence in success when it matters goes way up.

I know DJ thinks what we've seen recently is just Alex being Alex (over the past 5 years), but I don't agree with that.

I think there's a sizeable difference between 09 and 10 Alex and 11 and 12 Alex. And one just as large between the guy we've seen the past 4 games (or even since the bye) and the guy under center for San Fran in 11 and 12.

He's been much more willing to throw the ball beyond 10 yards since the bye (with Oakland apparently being an exception, though an understandable one. If they can't stop one play, keep running it). That was obvious in both Denver games, against Washington, and in what I saw vs. San Diego.

Makes a difference.

IIRC, and I usually don't, but even in the Oakland game he threw it downfield when we weren't running screens to death for TDs.