Chiefs Can We Measure Alex Smith's Suckitude? Yes, we can! - Page 2

frozenchief · 08-05-2015, 01:00 PM

Football Outsider's 2015 Analysis is now available. Excellent read as always. Chiefs are projected to get 7.9 wins. 34% chance of reaching post season. They spend a good portion of the article talking about how bad Smith is and how his wins are a very poor metric of how good he is as a QB. 1 of many money quotes:

Third down is where Smith’s conservatism may hurt his teams the most. Since 2011, Smith has taken the most third- down sacks (69) and has the worst sack rate (13.4 percent) among quarterbacks with at least 200 third-down passes. And when he’s not pulling the trigger, he’s firing too short. In 2014, Smith’s average third-down pass was thrown 2.3 yards short of the first-down marker, the shortest average in the league when compared to the needed yards for a first down. Aaron Rodgers had the longest average pass at 4.0 yards beyond the first-down marker. More than any quarterback in the league, Smith relies on his receivers to break tackles and gain yards after the catch to convert on third down. This metric is called Air Minus Need Differential (AMND). The average starting quarterback has an AMND of plus-1.4 since 2011. Smith’s minus-1.7 AMND is the lowest since 2011 among players with at least 300 attempts (Figure 2, next page). It’s as if Smith is playing a different sport than his peers.

Ah well. We can take comfort that we have Donald Stephenson as a starting tackle. Don't forget: he was the player taken one pick before Russell Wilson.

KCrockaholic · 08-05-2015, 02:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mav

I'm lost. There are 7 Super Bowl rings between those qb's. Who are the bad ones?

I was pointing out the difference between an immediate SuperBowl quality QB (Which is what this team needs) after being drafted and the guys who struggled early.

KCTitus · 08-05-2015, 02:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bufkin

Amazing that there's still people who have disdain for Alex Smith. In this league, it can be extremely difficult to find an average QB, let alone one like Smith who has an unheard of turnover ratio. Is he Aaron Rodgers? No, but nobody is. If you rely on an elite running back and a solid defense like the Chiefs do, you really can't ask for much more than what Smith is providing.

Ok, I'll bite.

I dont have any animus against Smith. I cannot abide by the 2 yard pass on 3rd and 10. It's all too frequent and has become such a pattern that defenses have no respect for any sort of stretch play. It hurts both the running game and a shaky line if the defense doesnt have to worry about anything beyond 10 yards past the line of scrimmage. Is that Alex/Offensive play calling or both? Dont know, dont care.

I'd like to see less predicability especially on 3rd down. That's all.

I lived through the Donnell Bennett years. No more, thanks.

**Mav** · 08-05-2015, 02:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KCrockaholic

I was pointing out the difference between an immediate SuperBowl quality QB (Which is what this team needs) after being drafted and the guys who struggled early.

Yeah but that's also relative to where and whom you are drafted. Both Bree's and Eli were taken by teams that were absolutely awful. Where raper, and Wilson were handed the keys to super bowl winning teams. I get what you are saying.

If the Chiefs were to draft a qb next season, that rookie is coming on to a loaded squad!

RunKC · 08-05-2015, 02:20 PM

Is there a QB worth a shit next year? Goff looks cool but idk about the rest

**Rausch** · 08-05-2015, 02:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KCTitus

Ok, I'll bite.

I dont have any animus against Smith. I cannot abide by the 2 yard pass on 3rd and 10. It's all too frequent and has become such a pattern that defenses have no respect for any sort of stretch play. It hurts both the running game and a shaky line if the defense doesnt have to worry about anything beyond 10 yards past the line of scrimmage. Is that Alex/Offensive play calling or both? Dont know, dont care.

I'd like to see less predicability especially on 3rd down. That's all.

I lived through the Donnell Bennett years. No more, thanks.

We actually had a 5k passer during one of those years...

**The Franchise** · 08-05-2015, 02:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RunKC

Is there a QB worth a shit next year? Goff looks cool but idk about the rest

No one really knows right now. It will all iron itself out during the season.

KCTitus · 08-05-2015, 02:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rausch

We actually had a 5k passer during one of those years...

Of course...KC needed something to offset Donnell's .9 ypc average.

KCrockaholic · 08-05-2015, 02:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mav

Yeah but that's also relative to where and whom you are drafted. Both Bree's and Eli were taken by teams that were absolutely awful. Where raper, and Wilson were handed the keys to super bowl winning teams. I get what you are saying.

If the Chiefs were to draft a qb next season, that rookie is coming on to a loaded squad!

Yeah, I understand. And it's possible that a confident rookie QB could be effective early on a team like this. Sanchez got by with a great running game and great defense. But this is Andy Reid, a rookie QB will be put in a position to throw 35 times a game.

NWTF · 08-05-2015, 02:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by stevieray

I loathe that type of play calling

Third and eight? screen pass!

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dave Lane

2 yards behind the line of scrimmage. Awesome.

I cant stand that.

Even when watching a game between two random teams where I have no rooting interest. I want to see a great defensive play or a great 3rd down conversion. Instead you get the equivalent of a QB kneel down. Smith is one of the worst offenders at this.

Just fu@$ing punt on third down if thats all you can come up with on a 3rd and 8.

**Mav** · 08-05-2015, 02:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pestilence

No one really knows right now. It will all iron itself out during the season.

The kid from Penn State is a stud.

**The Franchise** · 08-05-2015, 02:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mav

The kid from Penn State is a stud.

Well we're either going to have to hope for a shitty season or something is going to have to go horribly wrong for us to be in a position to draft a QB high.

**Mav** · 08-05-2015, 02:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pestilence

Well we're either going to have to hope for a shitty season or something is going to have to go horribly wrong for us to be in a position to draft a QB high.

Agreed. He's going top 5. He won't be a chief.

Otter · 08-05-2015, 02:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RunKC

Is there a QB worth a shit next year? Goff looks cool but idk about the rest

Christian Hackenberg Penn State. We'll go full round then give up 2 high draft pick for Colin Kaepernick in 4 more years. It's the circle of life.

**RealSNR** · 08-05-2015, 02:44 PM

I hope Hackenberg has a small penis or something that scares teams away, and he falls to us like Teddy Bridgewater did.

Only this time, we won't be ****ing morons and pass on him.

**Mav** · 08-05-2015, 02:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pestilence

Well we're either going to have to hope for a shitty season or something is going to have to go horribly wrong for us to be in a position to draft a QB high.

Agreed. He's going top 5. He won't be a chief.

08-05-2015, 01:00 PM
frozenchief Cynical Misanthrope Join Date: Apr 2013 Location: Alaska Casino cash: $1371379	Can We Measure Alex Smith's Suckitude? Yes, we can! Football Outsider's 2015 Analysis is now available. Excellent read as always. Chiefs are projected to get 7.9 wins. 34% chance of reaching post season. They spend a good portion of the article talking about how bad Smith is and how his wins are a very poor metric of how good he is as a QB. 1 of many money quotes: Third down is where Smith’s conservatism may hurt his teams the most. Since 2011, Smith has taken the most third- down sacks (69) and has the worst sack rate (13.4 percent) among quarterbacks with at least 200 third-down passes. And when he’s not pulling the trigger, he’s firing too short. In 2014, Smith’s average third-down pass was thrown 2.3 yards short of the first-down marker, the shortest average in the league when compared to the needed yards for a first down. Aaron Rodgers had the longest average pass at 4.0 yards beyond the first-down marker. More than any quarterback in the league, Smith relies on his receivers to break tackles and gain yards after the catch to convert on third down. This metric is called Air Minus Need Differential (AMND). The average starting quarterback has an AMND of plus-1.4 since 2011. Smith’s minus-1.7 AMND is the lowest since 2011 among players with at least 300 attempts (Figure 2, next page). It’s as if Smith is playing a different sport than his peers. Ah well. We can take comfort that we have Donald Stephenson as a starting tackle. Don't forget: he was the player taken one pick before Russell Wilson.
Posts: 3,933

08-05-2015, 02:20 PM	#19
RunKC Andy Reid Supporter Join Date: Apr 2012 Casino cash: $2009611	Is there a QB worth a shit next year? Goff looks cool but idk about the rest __________________ Mike Greenberg@Espngreeny I can’t fathom what it must be like to be a fan of the #Chiefs. Adopt a Chief: Noah Gray
Posts: 46,296