*** Official 2017 Royals Offseason Repository

[duncan_idaho]

The reign is over. Time to begin the quest for the next one.

Interesting offseason opens for the Royals. Will they go all in for one last shot with this crew? Will they re-tool for 2018 and beyond? Will Dayton Moore actually decrease payroll this time?

Trades, free agent signings, rumors, plans, proposals... dump 'em all here, for this is... the offseason repository!

Royals Top Prospects, 2017

This is a list that’s going to seem a little bleak initially, as Raul Mondesi got enough ABs to age out of the prospect rankings (just barely – at 135 ABs, he is not rookie eligible). But that said, I like the talent and feel like this is a system that will actually be underrated by the prospect services.

Spoiler!

Format: POS/Name/2017 Projected Final Level

1) 3B/OF Hunter Dozier, MLB. Dozier bounced back from a disastrous 2015 campaign that had many wondering, myself included, if he was wrecked. His strong offensive performance in 2016 saw Dozier recapture the mature approach that many liked coming up, while also starting to tap into his above-average raw power for the first time.

In addition to his success at the plate, Dozier also proved he could at least HANDLE an OF spot, which could put him in the conversation for 2017 playing time at the major leagues. If the Royals DO end up trading Cheslor Cuthbert, Dozier could find a decent amount of MLB playing time sliding between RF and 3B. With Moustakas recovering from knee surgery, he likely will need more regular breaks from the field. And the streaky Paulo Orlando is just not an intriguing short-side platoon partner for Jarrod Dyson.

2) LHP Matt Strahm, MLB. Strahm just barely skates under the rookie eligibility rules for a pitcher, so he can be included here. Royals fans already got a taste of the lefty’s abilities, as he used his above-average fastball and slurve to dominate out of the pen in 2016. For him to translate that dominance to the rotation, Strahm will need to maintain his velocity (92-94) and continue to improve a changeup that flashed average at times.

If the changeup becomes a weapon he can lean on against righties, Strahm could be a very solid mid-rotation starter and fringe ToR/No. 2 type (think Danny Duffy-lite).

3) RHP Josh Staumont, AAA. This one could blow up on me and look really silly by this time next year, but I’m encouraged by what we saw from Staumont late last year. He showed significantly improved control down the stretch for Northwest Arkansas, including some impressive playoff starts, while maintaining the big-time K ability. That trend continued in the Arizona Fall League.

If Staumont’s control holds, the Royals have a guy with a plus fastball, plus-plus curve, and average change (with a slider that could develop into a real weapon as he matures). He’ll start next season at AAA and could be an addition to the MLB bullpen or even the rotation before the season ends.

4) RF Jorge Bonifacio, AAA. Boni, like Dozier, had a bounceback season in 2016 with the bat, and also played 15-20 pounds lighter than the year before, which added some nice defensive utility according to reports I’ve gotten. He now looks like a guy could provide solid/average RF production in the major leagues… Average defense paired with potential to put up a .275/.335/.450 line. While that’s not all-star level, it IS playable. Especially at pre-arbitration dollars. He’ll get another year in Omaha to refine his approach, and likely be in the mix of a 2018 mini-youth movement… unless moved for MLB reinforcements.

5) C Meibrys Viloria, Low-A (Lexington). I haven’t seen him in person, but I like the pedigree. You’ve got a lefthanded hitting catcher with the defensive ability to stick behind the plate. He was a big-bonus guy out of Colombia (nearly $500k). And his offensive performance has been highly impressive early, with a good combination of power, plate discipline, and contact skills.

He’s forever away from the majors, just now clearing rookie ball, but Viloria is the most exciting prospect KC has had at Idaho Falls since someone on this board was gushing about a 16-year-old SS tearing it up.

6) 1B Ryan O’Hearn, AAA. O’Hearn is a guy who has never gotten a lot of hype from scouts, but he continues to be a strong producer. He’s someone who likely will strikeout about 25 percent of the time at the big-league level, but has the ability to be a .500+ SLG guy. That plays. He also has shown good patience at the plate, posting above-average OBPs at every level.

Bold prediction: I won’t be shocked if O’Hearn takes over at 1B for KC in 2018/2019 and provides similar offensive production to Hosmer out of the gate. He’s probably never going to be a consistent plus average (.290+) hitter, but .270 with 25 HR is something within reach for him. He’ll get his first shot at AAA in 2017.

7) RHP AJ Puckett, A+. Puckett is a high floor, low-ceiling guy who performed about as you’d expect in 2016 after being the Royals’ first pick in the 2016 Rule IV Draft. He’s not flashy, but Puckett does profile as a solid potential back-end starter. Good fastball command and an above-average changeup are his calling cards. If Puckett finds a reliable breaking ball to put batters away, this could tick up. Great athlete, very similar to Jake Odorizzi in that regard.

8) RF Khalil Lee, Low-A (Lexington). Lee was a two-way player in HS and many viewed him as a pitcher first as a pro, but the Royals drafted him as an OF and were reward with a strong debut campaign. Lee is not a big guy, but he produced solid power numbers despite that. He’s a dynamic athlete who could contribute with power and speed.

9) C Chase Vallot, High-A (Wilmington). Vallot has an intriguing bat, with plus raw power. Got off to a great start in 16 before being sidelined and then sidetracked by injury. RH bat may be good enough to push him out from behind the plate, where he has good tools but a long way to go.

10) RHP Jake Junis and RHP Alec Mills (AAA). I'm copping out here and including both at No. 10 because they're so similar. Like Puckett, they each project as a serviceable back of rotation starter. Similar stuff and profiles, though Junis has shown a little better strikeout ability and may have a smidge more upside as a result.

Others of note:

SS/CF Marten Gasparini. Production has been bad for this toolsy player, but Gasparini has speed and pop that jump out at you. At only 19, need to be patient with him... this European signee was even less polished when signing at 16 than the typical Latin America prospect.

OF Seuly Matias. Loud, loud tools. Matias profiles as a classic RF... big-time power potential. He's a long ways from the majors but is one of the Royals' biggest bonus babies from LA.

RHP Ashe Russell. 2014 1st rounder saw his velocity disappear last year and was quickly shut down. He's intriguing one way or the other, even if he ends up as another notch in the belt of the TINSTAAPP saying.

2B Corey Toups. O'Hearn's HS teammate has been an above-average producer for an up-the-middle player. His small stature hides a surprising amount of pop. Could turn into a Mark Grudzielanek type of offensive second baseman at his peak - solid average, lots of 2Bs.

RHP Scott Blewett, LHP Foster Griffin, RHP Nolan Watson - all three have underwhelmed as pros but were drafted in the supplemental round. Stuff and projectability for each is a positive. Wouldn't be surprised to see one of them take a Cody Reed-like step forward this season and crack the 50-75 range on prospect lists. They all have the natural ability.

SS/2B Ricky Aracena - Jose Altuve-sized Aracena is a switch hitting middle infielder who can flat out run. Switch hitter with a good approach.

RHP Pedro Fernandez - I'm still a believer in his stuff, even if he is destined for the pen. Was having a nice 2016 start until injuries derailed him right after his promotion to AA.

Sirs not Appearing in this Prospect List:

RHP Kyle Zimmer. Same story, different year. The Royals are hopeful they FINALLY found the cause of Zimmer's achy shoulder. If they really did, and he can stay healthy, the talent/potential is exciting.

OF Bubba Starling. Never trust a guy named Derek.

[Chiefspants]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

I said take the over, fella. 85-86 wins is a pretty fair projection; maybe 87 after the Wood signing. I think I'm right in line with most of you on my Royals projections. I've been far more bullish on the Davis and Dyson returns than most of you as well.

You sure bruise easily.

Your input has been a huge boost for the quality of the offseason's discussions. Hope you end up staying around for the season too.

[Prison Bitch]

We need to be extremely healthy to crack 84 wins.

[Chris Meck]

I think that pretty much everything that could go wrong did last season.

I don't expect it to happen again, but of course, it could.

I would expect a fully healthy Moose puts up some serious numbers, Cain if healthy is still in his prime (albeit nearing the back end), Hosmer might tick up a bit in a contract year. Soler is a ton of potential. We've added some bats, added some veteran pitching...I don't think this team looks like a mid 80's win team IF it stays relatively healthy.

[Chiefspants]

Originally Posted by Prison Bitch

We need to be extremely healthy to crack 84 wins.

A healthy Moose or Cain (with the rest of the team continuing their production last year) gets us right there. If they both stay healthy. We're probably on the over side of 85.

[tk13]

Originally Posted by ChiefsCountry

Royals ceiling is based on Hosmer, Cain, and Moose's production.

And Duffy being the guy we saw in the second half of last season. DJ is right that some of these moves are low ceiling, but there's something to be said for that if the rest of the team fills their roles. Kennedy pitched well in the second half too. If they can just do that, we need three guys behind them who can eat innings effectively, like a Guthrie or Vargas. Then hope Dayton can work his bullpen magic again.

[duncan_idaho]

Re: the long conversation about the rotation (good stuff)

I think it's a rotation that looks like it will have one frontline type (Duffy), two mid-rotation types (Kennedy and Hammel), and two back-end types (Vargas, Wood, Karns).

Karns is the biggest upside piece there. With his knockout curve and good FB, he could be more of a high no 3/low no 2 starter for KC.

I expect Hammel to out-perform his FIP by a run to a half run, because that's what KC has generally seen. I also think he will benefit pitching somewhere other than a pitcher's park.

It isn't a superstar rotation or set up to be as good as the 14 version, but the offense should also be stronger and deeper. I also think if you look at the 16 team and do some comparisons, it starts to improve the outlook a lot. Can Karns/Wood/Hammel/Vargas be more effective than Ventura/Volquez/Young/Medlen? I feel very good about the answer to that question. Hammel approximates what Ventura provided in 16, and I think in Karns/Wood/Vargas, two of those three will emerge to be better than the Volquez and Young/Medlen/everyone else 5th spot.

With that in mind, I don't think two rotation breakouts are required to make this a playoff team, though one certainly would help. They were 20 games below .500 when the Young/Flynn/etc fifth spot came around in the rotation. Split that in half, and you're back in the playoff hunt.

I think Strahm and Herrera make you similar in 8 and 9 to the 14 and 15 pens, and then you're trying to piece the 7th together from there (lot of names - Soria, Zimmer, Staumont, Albuquerque, Withrow, etc. just need one of those guys to emerge as an above-average reliever.)

It's a team that will have to win differently than the 14 group and needs to look more like the 15 offense to make the playoffs.

Lot of questions mark's, but lot of upside and lot of reason to be optimistic.


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[DJ's left nut]

Good news - Zimmer stood on the mound and threw a pitch.

Better news - he got on the mound and threw another pitch after that.

So he's at least 2 pitches better than our young Reyes looks like he's going to be this year, so you've got that going for ya.

[ChiTown]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

Re: the long conversation about the rotation (good stuff)

I think it's a rotation that looks like it will have one frontline type (Duffy), two mid-rotation types (Kennedy and Hammel), and two back-end types (Vargas, Wood, Karns).

Karns is the biggest upside piece there. With his knockout curve and good FB, he could be more of a high no 3/low no 2 starter for KC.

I expect Hammel to out-perform his FIP by a run to a half run, because that's what KC has generally seen. I also think he will benefit pitching somewhere other than a pitcher's park.

It isn't a superstar rotation or set up to be as good as the 14 version, but the offense should also be stronger and deeper. I also think if you look at the 16 team and do some comparisons, it starts to improve the outlook a lot. Can Karns/Wood/Hammel/Vargas be more effective than Ventura/Volquez/Young/Medlen? I feel very good about the answer to that question. Hammel approximates what Ventura provided in 16, and I think in Karns/Wood/Vargas, two of those three will emerge to be better than the Volquez and Young/Medlen/everyone else 5th spot.

With that in mind, I don't think two rotation breakouts are required to make this a playoff team, though one certainly would help. They were 20 games below .500 when the Young/Flynn/etc fifth spot came around in the rotation. Split that in half, and you're back in the playoff hunt.

I think Strahm and Herrera make you similar in 8 and 9 to the 14 and 15 pens, and then you're trying to piece the 7th together from there (lot of names - Soria, Zimmer, Staumont, Albuquerque, Withrow, etc. just need one of those guys to emerge as an above-average reliever.)

It's a team that will have to win differently than the 14 group and needs to look more like the 15 offense to make the playoffs.

Lot of questions mark's, but lot of upside and lot of reason to be optimistic.


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You see, if I had a like button, I would have liked this post.

[C3HIEF3S]

Brian Flynn fell through the roof of his barn in days before camp, Ned Yost said. Suffered broken rib and some other injuries. Out 8 weeks.

— Rustin Dodd (@rustindodd) February 14, 2017

[Pitt Gorilla]

Originally Posted by C3HIEF3S

Brian Flynn fell through the roof of his barn in days before camp, Ned Yost said. Suffered broken rib and some other injuries. Out 8 weeks.

— Rustin Dodd (@rustindodd) February 14, 2017

What in the actual ****? Curse of Appier.

[Al Bundy]

Originally Posted by C3HIEF3S

Brian Flynn fell through the roof of his barn in days before camp, Ned Yost said. Suffered broken rib and some other injuries. Out 8 weeks.

— Rustin Dodd (@rustindodd) February 14, 2017

Well that is sub-optimal.

[wazu]

Not a good week for guys named "Flynn".

[tyton75]

I think our pitching staff, while lackluster, is good enough and has enough depth now to keep us competitive. What we'll need is for Gordon to come back around and be a reliable bat on the team and get something more from SS/2b offensively. Moose could likely take a while to get his timing back so it's nice to have Cuthbert around to ease him back in if needed.

But Escobar was damn near useless at the plate last year and his defense was slipping, he needs to get better in both facets. I like was Whit was giving us at 2b, and I think he was yanked from the lineup prematurely. Getting some offensive production from our middle infielders along with the rest of the guys playing to their normal levels; I think we'll be a tough team to face for any team.

Isn't that all you can really ask?

[wazu]

Also broke three vertebrae. Awesome.

[Chiefspants]

Originally Posted by wazu

Also broke three vertebrae. Awesome.

This could be a major problem. Vertebrae injuries are going to be easily aggravated with the torque required from a pitcher.