Dorsey shares a few thoughts on the QB class

[Quesadilla Joe]

From Albert Breer's MMQB column.


http://mmqb.si.com/mmqb/2017/03/06/m...owns-nfl-draft

Spoiler!

After spending a week in Indianapolis, and four days last month in Mobile, I’d tell you there are five quarterbacks with a shot at going in the first round—Notre Dame’s DeShone Kizer, Texas Tech’s Pat Mahomes, North Carolina’s Mitchell Trubisky, Clemson’s Deshaun Watson, and Cal’s Davis Webb.

In what order, I don’t know. And I don’t think NFL teams have that figured out yet, either. But some themes to the class have emerged.

“First off, what stands out, I think there’s only one guy that’s ever taken a snap from under center,” Chiefs GM John Dorsey told me. “How about that one? It shows how we’re evolving into a spread-option era. Then, what you have to analyze is can they spit out a play in the huddle? If you look at the majority of these guys, everybody’s signaling everything in from the sideline.

“These are the types of things people are looking for as they sit and they talk to these players. Can they sit and regurgitate an offensive play? That’s hard to do, especially in (our) system, it’s really hard to do. But on the whole, they’re a more athletic group.

“Are there any finished products here? I don’t think so. So where are the warts, and are you willing to live with the warts? That’s what people are asking.”

I then asked Dorsey if any of the quarterbacks are ready to play. He smiled and said, “Me personally?” Then a long pause, another smile, and a “No.”

Again, that doesn’t mean there’s not plenty to like with the group, and more to dissect. So I asked one AFC personnel director to break down for me what he saw from the quarterbacks. He missed Webb, but got the other four. Here are his notes, with the caveat he wanted to emphasize—these guys are throwing different routes to receivers they don’t know …

• Kizer: Big, strong, good arm and velocity. Smooth release. Inconsistent feet, timing and accuracy. Had the same misses on multiple reps.

• Mahomes: Tight release, but thought he would be more consistent and better throwing deep.

• Trubisky: Athletic, good arm strength. Some inconsistency in accuracy and timing and deep ball.

• Watson: Very consistent, athletic. Easy motion. Easy ball to catch.

A winner for the week? It was Watson. He blew teams away in interviews to the point where I know a couple clubs that weren’t wild about him were anxious to go back and take a second look at the tape to see if they missed on their evaluation. And his field work was very good.

I wrote last month that Trubisky was the leader to be the first quarterback taken, and I still think that’s probably the likelihood. But Watson has gained some ground.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by Mother****erJones

This team has 10 ****ing picks. They're going to have to move up for one because every team knows KC wants a QB to fall to them. Happens every year it seems. Denver did it last year for Lynch.

Don't overstate the value of 5th and later picks. Sure, you can find some gems, but they don't have trade value and they still have extremely high bust rates.

They have 1 extra pick in the first 4 rounds and that's where the real meat of this draft lies. Do you really want to surrender that pick (and then some) to move up for a guy that's really not that much more likely to succeed than someone like Webb or Peterman? Say '10 picks!' all day, but they really have 1 extra pick that actually matters and so do a whole slew of teams this year due to the 11 3rd round comp picks given out. You move on from that and this draft starts to go south in a hurry, especially when the picks are at the back of the rounds. Everyone has picks; it's all relative. The Chiefs draft pick 'value' is already in the bottom 1/3 of the league so don't act like they're sitting on this massive surplus.

And again, I want Mahomes as more than I want anyone in this draft, but I'm not so myopic as to believe that he's any more likely to hit than someone like Dobbs. These QBs are all tightly bunched so why go crazy giving up draft capital to get one?

If they decide that's what they want to do, I'll be excited because it means that Reid pounded the table for somebody he really wanted and that's a damn good sign. If they sit back and let the board come to them, it's because Reid and Dorsey simply didn't see anybody that stood apart from anyone else.

If that's the case, preserving your draft capital is a smart decision.

[kcchiefsus]

Originally Posted by raybec 4

Ridiculous, there's too much talent in this draft to not play the board the way it stands. They would be giving away two or three day 1 contributors with the cost of moving up (depending on how far they tried to go)

Yes, let's continue to stay put and let the board fall as it will. That has worked out SO well in finding quarterbacks. If we pass on a guy this year do you think we'll magically be in position to take one next year? We'll again be out of reach of the top guys and will be left looking at Dorsey's "projects" again. There will still be people saying to wait and it's too risky.

[Trivers]

Originally Posted by kcchiefsus

Then the correct move is to trade up.

/CP general manager.

Too much talent in draft.

[Trivers]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Don't overstate the value of 5th and later picks. Sure, you can find some gems, but they don't have trade value and they still have extremely high bust rates.

They have 1 extra pick in the first 4 rounds and that's where the real meat of this draft lies. Do you really want to surrender that pick (and then some) to move up for a guy that's really not that much more likely to succeed than someone like Webb or Peterman? Say '10 picks!' all day, but they really have 1 extra pick that actually matters and so do a whole slew of teams this year due to the 11 3rd round comp picks given out. You move on from that and this draft starts to go south in a hurry, especially when the picks are at the back of the rounds. Everyone has picks; it's all relative. The Chiefs draft pick 'value' is already in the bottom 1/3 of the league so don't act like they're sitting on this massive surplus.

And again, I want Mahomes as more than I want anyone in this draft, but I'm not so myopic as to believe that he's any more likely to hit than someone like Dobbs. These QBs are all tightly bunched so why go crazy giving up draft capital to get one?

If they decide that's what they want to do, I'll be excited because it means that Reid pounded the table for somebody he really wanted and that's a damn good sign. If they sit back and let the board come to them, it's because Reid and Dorsey simply didn't see anybody that stood apart from anyone else.

If that's the case, preserving your draft capital is a smart decision.

Well stated!

[kccrow]

"Wait until the talent is so depleted on the roster that KC gets the #1 pick and can finally select a franchise..... left tackle!"

/Chiefs Homers Everywhere

[RunKC]

I think it really depends. If Mahommes is there at 20 I'm picking up the phone and seeing what that 3rd could get us.

Unfortunately I think the kid and the other 3 are long gone by pick 15, which would be far too much to give up for us to go that high.

[O.city]

If the top 4 are gone by 15, thats great for us. Thats 4 really good football players pushed down th eboard.

[-King-]

Originally Posted by kcchiefsus

Yes, let's continue to stay put and let the board fall as it will. That has worked out SO well in finding quarterbacks. If we pass on a guy this year do you think we'll magically be in position to take one next year? We'll again be out of reach of the top guys and will be left looking at Dorsey's "projects" again. There will still be people saying to wait and it's too risky.

Isn't that what Oakland and Dallas did with Carr and Prescott? You don't see how hypocritical you're being?
Posted via Mobile Device

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by kccrow

"Wait until the talent is so depleted on the roster that KC gets the #1 pick and can finally select a franchise..... left tackle!"

/Chiefs Homers Everywhere

"Trade the next three years worth of picks so you can move up and draft the next Paxton Lynch!!"

/making idiot straw men

This isn't an ordinary draft - it's a really REALLY good one.

In a lot of years, you could justify moving picks to slide around and take a stab at a quarterback with flaws. Last year, for instance, was a pretty good time to take a stab at it. The draft thinned out quite a bit fairly early on.

But this draft has a shitload of talent at a lot of key positions and if you're looking to give up your 1st, 2nd and 3rd this year to move up for a guy like Mahomes, there's an excellent chance that you're giving up 2 starting caliber players for that chance. This draft is absolutely that deep.

And again, it's deep at QB as well. None of us can say with any certainty that Mahomes is appreciably more likely to be a stud than Webb or Dobbs and those are guys that will be there in the 2nd, 3rd or later. It isn't just the lack of top-end in this draft that makes moving up questionable decision, it's the lack of separation.

It's a particularly strange draft and to just go throwing around tired old saws shows a striking lack of acumen on your part.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by RunKC

I think it really depends. If Mahommes is there at 20 I'm picking up the phone and seeing what that 3rd could get us.

Unfortunately I think the kid and the other 3 are long gone by pick 15, which would be far too much to give up for us to go that high.

The problem is that our 3rds are worth less than pretty much everyone else's 3rds given how far back we are. It again gets into this myth of massive surplus draft capital.

If we offer a third to move up, that gets shopped around and there are 25 teams with better 3rds than we have. You want to give up both of them? Or a 2nd instead?

We're sitting worse in draft capital than most teams in the NFL heading into this draft - no joke. So any move we make will be that much more painful for us.

But again, if a move is made, we know it will be because Dorsey and Reid - two guys that are notoriously averse to moving up - LOVE the guy they're moving up for. And if that's the case, I'll be excited as hell because they'll commit to that player and they'll throw every resource they have at ensuring his success.

But if they don't, I'll absolutely be at peace with that. I recognize the costs associated with moving up for a wild card in a draft this deep.

[raybec 4]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

The problem is that our 3rds are worth less than pretty much everyone else's 3rds given how far back we are. It again gets into this myth of massive surplus draft capital.

If we offer a third to move up, that gets shopped around and there are 25 teams with better 3rds than we have. You want to give up both of them? Or a 2nd instead?

We're sitting worse in draft capital than most teams in the NFL heading into this draft - no joke. So any move we make will be that much more painful for us.

But again, if a move is made, we know it will be because Dorsey and Reid - two guys that are notoriously averse to moving up - LOVE the guy they're moving up for. And if that's the case, I'll be excited as hell because they'll commit to that player and they'll throw every resource they have at ensuring his success.

But if they don't, I'll absolutely be at peace with that. I recognize the costs associated with moving up for a wild card in a draft this deep.

That's the rub for me, I really want the Chiefs to draft and develop a starting quarterback. Most of us do. Even though I think we can mutually agree that everyone on CP is a better talent evaluator and could make decisions for an NFL franchise better than the guys who actually do it, how many day 1 contributors at positions of need are we willing to give up to go up and get one?

[Deberg_1990]

What does it say about this years QB crop that Mike Glennon is a hot free agent??

[DJ's left nut]

Honestly, when you see the rumors being thrown about on Glennon, it makes you wonder why the Chiefs wouldn't try a hell of a lot harder to retain Foles. His $6.5 million cap number for next season is nothing for a team looking to try a short-term flyer before committing to a QB.

If teams will give Mike !@#$ing Glennon $10+ million/season in long-term money, they'd surely give up a 3rd for the privilege of paying Foles a hell of a lot less with much less exposure.

You're right, the reaction to the shit QBs on the market is an indictment on the current QB class for sure.

[BryanBusby]

The Glennon numbers sound like bullshit from his agent.

[kccrow]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

"Trade the next three years worth of picks so you can move up and draft the next Paxton Lynch!!"

/making idiot straw men

This isn't an ordinary draft - it's a really REALLY good one.

In a lot of years, you could justify moving picks to slide around and take a stab at a quarterback with flaws. Last year, for instance, was a pretty good time to take a stab at it. The draft thinned out quite a bit fairly early on.

But this draft has a shitload of talent at a lot of key positions and if you're looking to give up your 1st, 2nd and 3rd this year to move up for a guy like Mahomes, there's an excellent chance that you're giving up 2 starting caliber players for that chance. This draft is absolutely that deep.

And again, it's deep at QB as well. None of us can say with any certainty that Mahomes is appreciably more likely to be a stud than Webb or Dobbs and those are guys that will be there in the 2nd, 3rd or later. It isn't just the lack of top-end in this draft that makes moving up questionable decision, it's the lack of separation.

It's a particularly strange draft and to just go throwing around tired old saws shows a striking lack of acumen on your part.

I mentioned in the draft forum that I'd be fine with KC giving up their 3rd to get to 20/21, but anything higher than that is a no go in my book. That is specifically because of the talent at other positions. I don't, however, see some of the big needs at some positions the masses do.

I'm looking for Dorsey to add a QB in this draft for sure, whether it's round 1 or round 5. I'm looking for RB somewhere in the 3rd round on range. I'm looking at DL in the top 4 rounds. I'm looking for ILB in the top 4 rounds. I think FS is a high priority, as high as round 2. Parker is aging and his contract is growing (5.6 against the cap this year, but then up to 7 and 7.5 in the next 2 years at 31/32 yrs old). The lack of play Murray received in slot cover situations seems to indicate to me that he's likely not going to be the future in the single-high slot. I don't think CB is that big of a need and it would take the right guy in the right spot for Dorsey to jump. I could see a round 3 value pick there, but I'm doubtful about anything higher. I legitimately think he'll look to either extend Mitchell or let that play out this coming season. I think that pass rusher is a position they look at, but there would have to be an insane value plopped in Dorsey's lap for him to look there in the top 3 rounds. I think that WR is higher on Dorsey's priority list than even pass rusher. Maclin's contract is big, and another year like this year he won't be kept around. It takes time for receivers to learn this offense, and Hill and Conley just aren't enough. I think O-Line isn't that high of a priority with the LDT re-signing. I think Dorsey's normal 5th-7th round dumpster diving will be about all we might see there.