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Old 10-26-2022, 08:47 AM  
O.city O.city is offline
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With their now being that extra WC spot and everyone being bunched up, there's gonna be alot of executives deluding themselves into thinking they have a shot.

Even with that said, I've never understood why more teams don't sell. Take the Raiders for instance and Josh Jacobs. He's clearly going elsewhere this offseason, so they probably think they could get a 3rd round comp pick. If the Saints beat them this weekend, why wouldn't you try to move him?

The Saints should trade anything that's not bolted down at this point, but I digress.

I know teams don't like to shit on their fanbase and sell because of tickets and blah blah blah.

Why dont' more teams sell though?
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Old 10-28-2022, 01:38 PM   #391
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But with all the picks and cap space and such they have, it’s not doing that
Dude, the Panthers want two firsts for Burns and he's probably going to ask for a contract around $30M AAV and get it.

They just can't afford that at all.

Furthermore, Burns isn't even CLOSE to the all-around player Von Miller is.

You need to give up on this fantasy of trading 1sts for a top flight pass rusher. It's not going to happen.
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Old 10-28-2022, 01:39 PM   #392
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DJ and I talked about this somehwere here, but if you're going to the draft...just sit tight and take the pass rushers as they come to you.

Trading up for one is just risky business because the elite dudes ain't making it past 5 or 6 and the others that go in the first are just so hit and miss.

At some point they just need to invest more in the spot but I'd guess that's coming sooner than later.
Yeah - my stance on all that is below.

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I mean what do you think about Marcus Davenport? Because that's probably your best 25% outcome here. To me he's...fine. Is he worth 2 first rounders? Oh hell no.

Myles Garret goes #1 overall...Derek Barnett goes 14.

Joey Bosa at 3, Buckner at 7...Shaq Lawson is the next at 19. Meanwhile Ogbah and Chris Jones go at 32 and 37.

Most years you're just not really any better off at 10 than you are at 25. The real talent has cleared out by then and the 'real ass kickers' aren't falling to 15.
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Even in a STACKED year for DL (and man was it) you have Nick Bosa go at #2, Josh Allen at 7, Ed Oliver, Christian Wilkins at 9 and 13 and Brian Burns at 16. But you also had Sweat slip all the way to 26 and he's a good player. Moreover, you also had Clelin Ferrell go at four and he's ass.

I think what we see is that in the overwhelming majority of seasons, you're very likely to get a difference maker at DL in the top 7 picks and then from about 10 to 30, you're just kinda all taking the same blind stabs. And even in years where you see better players fall into the middle, you still end up with significant outliers on both sides of the round.

Gonna have to attack in bulk, IMO. This 'draft one DL' shit isn't gonna work if you want to have a DL that's worth anything. They need 2 and very probably 3 in this upcoming draft.
I just don't see a trade up being worthwhile. You're maybe marginally more likely to get a dominant pass rusher at 12 than you are at 25.

I think the answer is that you keep shooting your shot in them mid-late 20s and hope you come across a Paye or Williams. And that you actually draft him. Instead of, y'know, a RB or 3rd Safety.

Bottom line is that we need to put more emphasis on the DL in the draft than we have the last 2-3 years and those efforts need to be smarter than the Breeland Speaks pick.
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Old 10-28-2022, 01:41 PM   #393
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Josh Allen: 6-5 262, 25 years old
2019: 16 games, 10.5 Sacks, 23 QBHits, 6 AV, 68.4 PFF
2020: 8 games, 2.5 sacks, 11 QBHits, 3 AV, 69.6 PFF
2021: 16 games, 7.5 sacks, 14 QBHits, 7 AV, 78.5 PFF
2022: 7 games, 3 sacks, 11 QBHits, 83.5 PFF

Cap:
2022-About $2M
2023-$11.5M


Brian Burns: 6'5 250, 24 years old
2019: 16 games, 7.5 Sacks, 16 QBHits, 4 AV, 63.7 PFF
2020: 15 games, 9 sacks, 21 QBHits, 6 AV, 76.8 PFF
2021: 17 games, 9 sacks, 18 QBHits, 10 AV, 60.8 PFF
2022: 7 games, 5 sacks, 7 QBHits, 74.1 PFF

Cap:
2022-About $1.3M
2023-$16M


Don't think you can go wrong with either. So who ever comes cheaper is my pick.

I'd offer 2023 2nd + 2024 2nd + Hardman and first team to accept wins. Then also sign Odell.
If they cost the same draft pick wise, I'd rather have Burns. We need a speed rusher. Josh Allen is solid but man, we need someone with speed. Not just another Dunlap/Karlaftis.
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Old 10-28-2022, 01:41 PM   #394
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That’s basically what I suggested with Washington and Jacksonville. Both teams are deep at DL and could use receiver help. I highly doubt it happens, but it’s possible. I never referenced trading him for picks.
Jacksonville has no designs on winning this year and so they won't give up an asset for a UFA. Even if it's a short term asset, anyone that would help us would help other teams as well and they may be willing to offer a better long-term return.

Washington...well they're just kinda crazy. Snyder is notorious for insane trade demands.

I think your pool is REALLY limited.
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Old 10-28-2022, 02:03 PM   #395
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Jags should be better than they have been. Denver may win this one with defense. Lawrence is kind of a screw up. 9 td's is crap after they opened their wallet for WR's.
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Old 10-28-2022, 02:03 PM   #396
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K'Lavon Chaisson honestly seems more like a Veach-type inquiry than really going after Josh Allen in my opinion. He's a former 1st rounder with another year left on his rookie deal. He hasn't been much but he probably gets had for super cheap (like 6th or 7th round pick) and there is still some chance he can be molded into something at 23 years old.
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Old 10-28-2022, 02:35 PM   #397
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K'Lavon Chaisson honestly seems more like a Veach-type inquiry than really going after Josh Allen in my opinion. He's a former 1st rounder with another year left on his rookie deal. He hasn't been much but he probably gets had for super cheap (like 6th or 7th round pick) and there is still some chance he can be molded into something at 23 years old.
I brought him up in the offseason. It would be up to Cullen and if he thought he could work with him.
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Old 10-28-2022, 03:00 PM   #398
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Damn, Chase got ****ed up. Wonder if the Bengals go looking for a rental now.
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Old 10-28-2022, 03:02 PM   #399
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Damn, Chase got ****ed up. Wonder if the Bengals go looking for a rental now.
Rub some dirt on it and get back out there.
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Old 10-28-2022, 03:09 PM   #400
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Damn, Chase got ****ed up. Wonder if the Bengals go looking for a rental now.
Not going on IR?

A torn hip labrum requires a pretty serious surgery.
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Old 10-28-2022, 03:20 PM   #401
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Not going on IR?

A torn hip labrum requires a pretty serious surgery.
Had one and it never got right. Granted the surgeon was Dr Nick and I'm possibly less of an athlete than Chase...but still, good luck to him...
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Old 10-28-2022, 04:39 PM   #402
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Scary stuff. I love the player and hope they don’t rush him back. I’d seriously consider shutting him down the rest of the season. Hip injuries are no joke.
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Old 10-28-2022, 04:47 PM   #403
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Dude, the Panthers want two firsts for Burns and he's probably going to ask for a contract around $30M AAV and get it.

They just can't afford that at all.

Furthermore, Burns isn't even CLOSE to the all-around player Von Miller is.

You need to give up on this fantasy of trading 1sts for a top flight pass rusher. It's not going to happen.
It might, but probably not that one. Carolina controls cost two more seasons, and will want the next regime to have players to build around.
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Old 10-28-2022, 04:57 PM   #404
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Damn, Chase got ****ed up. Wonder if the Bengals go looking for a rental now.
Flip them Toney for a first round pick!!
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Old 10-28-2022, 06:43 PM   #405
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