*** OFFICIAL Top 5 Draft Choice Watch ***

[cdcox]

Since my playoff predictions will probably have little bearing on the Chiefs this year, I thought I'd do a top 5 draft choice watch instead.

After week 1, I project that we have a 16.5% chance for a top 5 draft choice. This is probably lower than actual, because my early season power ratings are heavily weighted by the Vegas expectation of 7.5 wins this season.

[ShortRoundChief]

Originally Posted by lj4mvp

Dorsey and Jake Long aren't locks to go before KC if it picks at No. 4 overall. If it's the Rams, Falcons and Dolphins ahead of KC, you can bet your bottom dollar that at least one of Jake Long or Dorsey will be available.

Miami will NOT touch Dorsey. Don't kid yourself. No one's paying a rookie DT $35M guaranteed, especially a 1-15 team. Parcells will trade it away or take a QB. The Rams have bigger problems. You think Atlanta is taking a DT? Again, don't kid yourself.

There is so much more to making picks at the top of the draft than who's the best player. P.R. and finance play into the decision as much as ability. Teams like the Falcons desperately need a player who'll put asses in the seats; they're not anything like the Texans who, even with the top pick, were able to make a smart football decision.

yeah i see the falcons taking a qb

with a no affiliation with animals clause in his contract

[The Bad Guy]

I think McFadden would put tons of asses in the seats for the Falcons.

[chiefbowe82]

so if st louis beats arizona next week..we'll have the number 3 pick?
assuming we take care of business against ny jets and lose. than we'll have the no 3?

[SBK]

Originally Posted by The Bad Guy

I think McFadden would put tons of asses in the seats for the Falcons.

I was at the mall here today and I heard at least a half dozen guys talking about taking McFadden. Strange you mention that, I think he'd be a great fit here, and could help bring people back to the dome.

(I live in Atlanta)

[evolve27]

I don't see Clady playing in the Hawaii Bowl on ESPN. He could be a possible reach with our pick nonetheless.

[cdcox]

Originally Posted by KC_CHIEFS_06

so if st louis beats arizona next week..we'll have the number 3 pick?
assuming we take care of business against ny jets and lose. than we'll have the no 3?

No, it is a lot more complicated than that. I'll try to put out a complete list of scenarios.

[RedThat]

Planeteers I gotta question.

I trust that they are brilliant minds out there, and I actually want to describe a scenario first before asking a question.

Lets say we lose to the Jets next week. That leaves both teams at 4-12. How do they determine the tie-breaker for who gets the higher draft selection?

I heard rumblings around here that it would be based on SOS. If so, who picks before whom? The team with the weaker SOS or the team with the stronger SOS?

I did some homework here.

The Jets as of now have a total opponents record of 117-92

The Chiefs as of now have a total opponents record of 87-71

So regardless, if the Chiefs lose next week, that puts us tied with the Jets. Who gets the tie breaker? And FYI according to NFL.com we pick 6th right now if the season ended today.

[Mecca]

The team with the weaker SOS picks first because you achieved the record against worse competition making you worse.

[RedThat]

Originally Posted by Mecca

The team with the weaker SOS picks first because you achieved the record against worse competition making you worse.

So if the Chiefs lose, theyd pick before the Jets?

[PriestMVP31]

i thought i read somewhere that head to head comes into play if the teams had played each other. With the raiders, we are 1-1, so SOS is the determining factor with them.

got this from a draft board

Are you sure that those Opp. Percentages are correct?

http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/news/story?id=2830466

^ According to this they aren't. That would switch some things around in your order.

This is what I have

1 Miami (1-13)
2 Atlanta (3-11) .473 L
3 St. Louis (3-11) .473 W
4 New York Jets (3-11) .516
5 New England (from San Francisco) (4-10) .469
6 Baltimore (4-10) .508
7 Kansas City (4-10) .516
8 Oakland (4-10) .539
9 Chicago (5-9) .465
10 Cincinnati (5-9) .512
11 Carolina (6-8 ) .447
12 Arizona (6-8 ) .461
13 Philadelphia (6-8 ) .500
14 Denver (6-8 ) .504 L
15 Detroit (6-8 ) .504 W
16 New Orleans (7-7) .484
17 Washington (7-7) .500
18 Houston (7-7) .504
19 Buffalo (7-7) .539
20 Minnesota (8-6) .500
21 Tennessee (8-6) .520
22 Tampa Bay (9-5) .473
23 Seattle (9-5) .488
24 New York Giants (9-5) .496
25 San Diego (9-5) .504
26 Dallas (from Cleveland) (9-5) .508
27 Pittsburgh (9-5) .512
28 Jacksonville (10-4) .527
29 Green Bay (12-2) .492
30 Dallas (12-2) .496
31 San Francisco (from Indianapolis) (12-2) .516
32 Forfeited (by New England) (14-0) .535


The W & L is for the head to head matchup which according to the stuff below is the first tie breaker resulting in the loser getting the higher pick.

Quote:
Draft sequence is based upon team records and strength-of-schedule. In slotting teams with the same record, the team whose opponents had the weakest schedule picks ahead of the team whose opponents had the next weakest schedule and so forth for that group. In the event of ties (teams with the same record and the same strength-of-schedule), the first applicable tiebreaker (head-to-head, divisional record, or conference record) will be employed, with the tiebreak loser getting the higher selection in Round One. If there are no applicable tiebreakers (as would be the case with teams from opposite conferences that did not face each other), ties will be broken by coin toss.

The Super Bowl winner and loser will draft thirty-second and thirty-first respectively. Other playoff teams, as they drop out, move to the end of their group regardless of the strength-of-schedule. If teams with the same record drop out in the same playoff week they are positioned at the end of the group and strength-of-schedule will determine their sequence. Teams coming back into their group in different playoff weeks are placed in the group with the team(s) that advanced further being placed behind the team(s) that dropped in earlier.

Once the first round sequence has been established, in subsequent rounds teams rotate within their won-loss grouping with the team that picked earliest in the previous round moving to the last position of the group while others move up.


^ Tie breaker info. http://www.ourlads.com/draftsequence.cfm

obviously not up to date, but im sure you can work it out from here if you want.

[blueballs]

Next week we get see a top 5 pick in action
has D'brick picked up his game
I heard bust earlier in the season

[HolmeZz]

Originally Posted by blueballs

Next week we get see a top 5 pick in action
has D'brick picked up his game
I heard bust earlier in the season

Ferguson's looked pretty bad. His lack of size is an issue. He can be bullrushed.