Todd McShay's latest mock (01/16)

[BigRock]

I'd give the ESPN.com link, but it's an insider article. I'm just copying it from another board.

The deadline for underclassmen to declare for the NFL draft has come and gone. Now that we know who's staying and who's going, it's time for Scouts Inc.'s second mock draft. My first-round projection features 13 juniors, including No. 1 overall prospect Darren McFadden, who is not the No. 1 overall pick despite being far and away the best pro prospect available this year.

The top two picks in this version of the mock draft are defensive linemen and an offensive lineman comes in at No. 5 overall. Furthermore, those three are among a group of 12 linemen from both sides of the ball who project as first-rounders. Much will change between now and the draft in April, but here is how I see things shaking down at this early juncture:

Note: * denotes underclassman; ** denotes teams that will decide draft order by coin flip; *** denotes teams that could change position depending on playoff results


1. Miami Dolphins
Record: 1-15
Scouts Inc.'s biggest needs: MLB, OT, G, DT, CB, QB
Projected pick: Glenn Dorsey, DT, LSU
Dorsey's dominant performance against Ohio State in the BCS title game was a not-so-subtle reminder of his rare abilities. The 6-foot-1, 310-pounder was back to his disruptive ways thanks to a nearly five-week layoff that allowed him to rest a nagging knee injury originally suffered on a cheap shot in the Auburn game. That said, Bill Parcells, the Dolphins new VP of football operations, will make decisions on coaches, schemes and veteran personnel between now and the draft that could steer the team in a different direction. Dorsey is strong enough to adjust to a 3-4 defensive scheme, but it wouldn't play to his strengths as a penetrating interior force. It wouldn't be cost effective for Miami to spend No. 1 money on an interior lineman in that defensive scheme, either, so OT Jake Long and DE Chris Long are also options. Stay tuned.


2. St. Louis Rams
Record: 3-13
Scouts Inc.'s biggest needs: CB, DE, G, OT, OLB
Projected pick: Chris Long, DE, Virginia
The season-ending injury to perennial Pro Bowl OT Orlando Pace and the Rams' overall poor play along the offensive line this season make OT Jake Long a possibility with this pick. But assuming Pace returns to form in 2008, the Rams have a much bigger need along the interior of their offensive line, which can be addressed in free agency or in later rounds. Don't be surprised if St. Louis goes with the other Long here; Chris is not a prototypical edge rusher but is still a dominant playmaker with rare versatility and a motor that never quits. The Rams could solidify their defensive line for years to come by following 2007 first-round DT Adam Carriker with Long this season.


3. Atlanta Falcons**
Record: 4-12
Scouts Inc.'s three biggest needs: QB, OT, DT, RB, S
Projected pick: Matt Ryan, QB, Boston College
This match is a no-brainer as far as I'm concerned. Ryan is the clear-cut No. 1 quarterback prospect in the 2008 class. In addition to solidifying the future of the all-important position for the Falcons, Ryan has the intangibles and character to help the franchise rebuild its tarnished image.


4. Oakland Raiders**
Record: 4-12
Scouts Inc.'s three biggest needs: OT, DT, WR, DE, RB
Projected pick: Darren McFadden*, RB, Arkansas
Running back isn't quite a pressing need, but McFadden is a rare talent and an unbelievable value if he slips to the Raiders here. If the team isn't high on McFadden, though, Oakland could use this pick to fill a hole along the offensive or defensive lines. It should also be noted that the Raiders are financially strapped and will not want to dish out top-five money one year after selecting QB JaMarcus Russell with the top overall pick. So, if McFadden is still on the board, don't count out the possibility of a blockbuster trade by owner Al Davis. Cowboys owner Jerry Jones, an Arkansas alum, would certainly listen to offers.


5. Kansas City Chiefs**
Record: 4-12
Scouts Inc.'s three biggest needs: OT, DE, C, WR, CB
Projected pick: Jake Long, OT, Michigan
Quarterback is still a question mark, but the Chiefs' No. 1 priority this offseason should be solidifying their offensive front. Long is unquestionably the most dominant offensive lineman in the 2008 class and could help Kansas City achieve that goal in a hurry. He has the versatility to play either right or left tackle, and his combination of size, technique, athletic ability and a mean streak would improve the Chiefs' line almost immediately.

[BigRock]

6. New York Jets
Record: 4-12
Scouts Inc.'s three biggest needs: WR, NT, ILB, G, OLB
Projected pick: Vernon Gholston*, DE, Ohio State
This seems a bit high right now for Gholston, who flashes top-10 talent in many games (see: three sacks against Michigan) but disappears in too many others. Don't be surprised, however, if he works his way into the top-10 mix by the time April rolls around. Gholston is the best edge-rushing prospect in the class and we all know the premium NFL teams place on those players. He would be an excellent addition at rush linebacker for a Jets defense that is in need of some perimeter heat out of its 3-4 front.


7. New England Patriots (from 5-11 San Francisco)
Record: 16-0
Scouts Inc.'s three biggest needs: ILB, CB, OLB, OL depth
Projected pick: Mike Jenkins, CB, South Florida
The Patriots would like to inject some youth at inside linebacker, but there isn't a player at that position worth selecting this high now that James Laurinaitis (Ohio State) and Rey Maualuga (USC) are both returning to school next fall. The next priority is to find a replacement for CB Asante Samuel, a free agent who can't be franchised for a second consecutive year, and Jenkins is currently the top-rated cornerback in a weak 2008 crop. His combination of size, speed and athleticism is outstanding and his recognition skills improved each season. Jenkins also brings versatility to the table; he can play some safety and also chip in on returns.


8. Baltimore Ravens
Record: 5-11
Scouts Inc.'s three biggest needs: CB, QB, OLB, DE, OT
Projected pick: Brian Brohm, QB, Louisville
Baltimore hopes this pick puts an end to its seemingly endless search for a franchise quarterback. There's no such thing as a "can't-miss" prospect in the NFL draft, especially at quarterback, and although Brohm is hardly an exception to the rule, he does possess the size, accuracy, pocket presence, intelligence and work ethic to thrive at the next level.


9. Cincinnati Bengals
Record: 7-9
Scouts Inc.'s three biggest needs: DT, LB, OT, DE, TE
Projected pick: Sedrick Ellis, DT, USC
The Bengals have a big need for help along the interior of the defense and Ellis is a quick, tough and relentless defensive tackle. He has the potential to disrupt plays in the backfield with his explosive first step and can occupy blockers, which would make the Bengals' entire front seven better.


10. New Orleans Saints
Record: 7-9
Scouts Inc.'s three biggest needs: CB, DT, MLB, TE, OLB
Projected pick: Kentwan Balmer, DT, North Carolina
This is admittedly a bit of a reach, but unfortunately for the Saints this appears to be the area where the elite talent pool runs dry. Laurinaitis and CB Malcolm Jenkins returning to Ohio State could end up affecting the Saints more than any other team in the draft. Cornerback and defensive tackle are New Orleans' biggest need areas and Balmer is the best available prospect at either position. Although Balmer flashes top-10 potential at times, he also could turn out to be another bust in the mold of Jonathan Sullivan, who New Orleans selected sixth overall in 2003 but traded away in 2006 after he failed to live up to his potential.


11. Buffalo Bills
Record: 7-9
Scouts Inc.'s biggest needs: TE, CB, WR, LB, DT
Projected pick: DeSean Jackson*, WR, California
Jackson could join forces with former Cal teammate and current Bills RB Marshawn Lynch to give Buffalo one of the most exciting young offensive skill groups in the NFL. Jackson still has room to improve as a route-runner and he must get stronger in order to endure a 16-game NFL schedule. Much like Ted Ginn Jr. (No. 9 overall to Miami last season), however, Jackson's home run ability after the catch, on vertical routes and returning punts will be too tempting for a team with a top-15 draft pick to pass on.


12. Denver Broncos
Record: 7-9
Scouts Inc.'s biggest needs: OT, DT, S, MLB, G
Projected pick: Ryan Clady*, OT, Boise State
Clady is still improving his strength but he possesses impressive feet to go along with his enormous wingspan and huge frame. He would be an ideal fit in Denver's zone-blocking scheme.


13. Carolina Panthers
Record: 7-9
Scouts Inc.'s biggest needs: QB, WR, DE, OLB, OT
Projected pick: Calais Campbell*, DE, Miami
It would be tough to pass on a potential future franchise quarterback in Andre' Woodson, but I get the sense that coach John Fox is more worried about the immediate future. Instead of drafting a young signal-caller who will need time to develop, look for the Panthers to bring in veteran competition for Matt Moore, who showed some signs of potential late in the season. Drafting an end like Campbell, who could make an immediate contribution, seems more prudent for Fox; Mike Rucker is expected to retire and Julius Peppers disappeared in 2007.


14. Chicago Bears
Record: 7-9
Scouts Inc.'s biggest needs: QB, OT, DT, G, RB
Projected pick: Andre' Woodson, QB, Kentucky
Teams will be concerned about Woodson's occasional lapses in decision-making and lack of mobility, but he possesses the size, arm strength and accuracy as a passer to develop into a good starter in the NFL. The Bears will likely consider themselves fortunate if Woodson falls to them at pick No. 14 overall, given the quarterback issues that have plagued the team in recent seasons.


15. Detroit Lions
Record: 7-9
Scouts Inc.'s biggest needs: OT, G, CB, S, DE
Projected pick: Aqib Talib*, CB, Kansas
The Lions will be selecting outside of the top 10 for the first time since 2001 and the trick is to find quality players this far down the line. The Lions' secondary is undermanned and would welcome the services of Talib; he is a versatile, fluid athlete with excellent size and ball skills. His elite athleticism was on display when returned an interception 100 yards for a touchdown this season, and Talib also saw some snaps on offense.

[BigRock]

16. Arizona Cardinals
Record: 8-8
Scouts Inc.'s biggest needs: OLB, CB, TE, RB, DE
Projected pick: Jonathan Stewart*, RB, Oregon
The Cardinals have more pressing needs on the other side of the ball -- like defensive tackle and cornerback -- but there isn't a player available at either position who is as valuable as Stewart. He has the speed to provide a big-play element that is missing in the Cardinals' rushing attack while splitting carries with Edgerrin James early in his career. Stewart also could offer a boost as a kickoff returner.


17. Minnesota Vikings
Record: 8-8
Scouts Inc.'s biggest needs: DE, WR, S, QB, TE
Projected pick: Derrick Harvey*, DE, Florida
Believe it or not, Minnesota is still in the market for a pass-rushing defensive end despite investing recent back-to-back first-round picks in Kenechi Udeze (2004) and Erasmus James (2005). Harvey isn't quite as explosive as former teammate Jarvis Moss (first round to Denver last season), but he is more naturally athletic and if groomed properly should become a more complete player in the NFL.


18. Houston Texans
Record: 5-7
Scouts Inc.'s biggest needs: CB, G, WR, S, OT
Projected pick: Kenny Phillips*, S, Miami
The Texans boast arguably the best young defensive line in the NFL thanks to former first-round picks DE Mario Williams (2006) and DT Amobi Okoye (2007), and now they need a ball hawk in the secondary who can capitalize when that line forces bad throws from opposing quarterbacks. Phillips could be the right man for the job. He needs good coaching to improve his consistency, but there isn't a defensive back in this year's class who can stack up with Phillips' overall blend of natural physical tools.


19. Philadelphia Eagles
Record: 9-7
Scouts Inc.'s biggest needs: OT, S, WR, LB, TE
Projected pick: Malcolm Kelly*, WR, Oklahoma
Current Eagles OTs Jon Runyan and William Thomas aren't getting any younger, so Jeffrey Otah (Pittsburgh) and Michael Oher (Mississippi) are possibilities here. However, the Eagles are still in search of a big-play threat at wide receiver and Kelly could finally be the answer. Unlike most big receivers, he's a smooth route-runner who knows how to separate from man-to-man coverage. Kelly also might have the strongest hands of any receiver in this year's class.


20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Record: 9-7
Scouts Inc.'s biggest needs: OT, WR OLB, CB, QB
Projected pick: Sam Baker, OT, USC
Cornerback is also an area of need but Baker would be a steal this late in the first round. He suffered through an injury-plagued senior season and he still needs to get stronger, but no tackle in the 2008 is better equipped athletically to step in immediately and improve the pass-blocking situation for coach Jon Gruden's West Coast offense.




21. Washington Redskins
Record: 9-7
Scouts Inc.'s biggest needs: WR, DE, S, OT, CB
Projected pick: Limas Sweed, WR, Texas
The Redskins' top priority this offseason is to add a playmaking receiver to the roster. There projects to be a run of wide receivers in the bottom half of the first round before the shallow talent pool dries up and if the Redskins don't get involved here they're likely to get shut out of the wide receiver market. Sweed could become one of the steals of this year's draft; he possesses top-10 talent but will no doubt be undervalued due to a wrist injury that cut short his senior season but should have no long-term affects on his pass-catching ability.


22. Dallas Cowboys (from 10-6 Cleveland)
Record: 13-3
Scouts Inc.'s biggest needs: CB, WR, OT, ILB, RB
Projected pick: Mario Manningham*, WR, Michigan
Manningham is an underrated talent who could be special at the next level if he keeps his head on straight. With his good deep speed it wouldn't take Manningham long to take over Terry Glenn's role in the Dallas offense as the vertical threat opposite Terrell Owens. However, Manningham needs to get stronger in order to deal with physical press coverage.


23. Pittsburgh Steelers
Record: 10-6
Scouts Inc.'s biggest needs: OT. C, DE, G, RB
Projected pick: Jeffrey Otah, OT, Pittsburgh
The Steelers could use two of their first three picks on offensive linemen. They have bigger holes to fill inside at center and guard, but with his combination of size and skills Otah is far and away the best lineman available in this scenario. G Roy Schuening (Oregon State) and C John Sullivan (Notre Dame) could also become Steelers in later rounds.


24. Tennessee Titans
Record: 10-6
Scouts Inc.'s biggest needs: WR, CB, TE, WR, OL
Projected pick: Early Doucet, WR, LSU
Considering the Pacman Jones fallout, it wouldn't be surprising to see Tennessee pass on the more naturally gifted James Hardy, who has off-field baggage. The Titans need to draft a legitimate weapon for QB Vince Young to target in the passing game, and although Doucet battled injury during his senior season, has the quickness and playmaking ability to help Young.


25. Seattle Seahawks
Record: 10-6
Scouts Inc.'s biggest needs: OT, DT, RB, TE, G
Projected pick: Rashard Mendenhall*, RB, Illinois
It is unlikely that current Seahawks RB Shaun Alexander will ever return to his 2005 MVP form, and Maurice Morris has proven to be most effective in a complementary role. This year's crop of running backs is unusually deep, but Seattle might not want to wait; Mendenhall is an underrated receiver, has limited wear on his tires and is coming off a very impressive showing against the speedy USC defense in the Rose Bowl.

[keg in kc]

5. Kansas City Chiefs**
Record: 4-12
Scouts Inc.'s three biggest needs: OT, DE, C, WR, CB
Projected pick: Jake Long, OT, Michigan
Quarterback is still a question mark, but the Chiefs' No. 1 priority this offseason should be solidifying their offensive front. Long is unquestionably the most dominant offensive lineman in the 2008 class and could help Kansas City achieve that goal in a hurry. He has the versatility to play either right or left tackle, and his combination of size, technique, athletic ability and a mean streak would improve the Chiefs' line almost immediately.

Much like sharing intimate relations with a female of the human species, the fact that I want it to happen so much means that it's a veritable certainty that it will not.

[BigRock]

26. New York Giants***
Record: 10-6
Scouts Inc.'s biggest needs: OLB, CB, S, OT, DT
Projected pick: Keith Rivers, OLB, USC
The Giants are in need of a legitimate upgrade at linebacker and Rivers is instinctive and athletic enough to contribute immediately on the weak side. Arkansas RB Felix Jones is another possibility here; his world-class speed makes him an ideal complement to current Giants power back Brandon Jacobs. Jones also can add value as a big-play threat as a receiver and in the return game, so keep an eye on this selection.


27. Jacksonville Jaguars
Record: 11-5
Scouts Inc.'s biggest needs: WR, DE, SS, CB
Projected pick: Quentin Groves, DE, Auburn
The Jaguars should use this pick on the best available pass-rusher. Although Groves struggled through an injury-riddled senior season, there isn't an edge rusher in the 2008 class with better top-end speed. His stock is likely to soar following what should be impressive showings at the combine and individual workouts.


28. San Diego Chargers***
Record: 11-5
Scouts Inc.'s biggest needs: G, OT, NT, FB, RB
Projected pick: Dan Connor, MLB, Penn State
Connor is a versatile prospect who spent most of his collegiate career at outside linebacker before moving inside as a senior. Similar to former teammate Paul Posluszny (second round to Buffalo last season), Connor is a bit overrated at this early point in the draft process. Regardless, he's athletic and tough enough to warrant late-first round consideration from a team like the Chargers, who are in need of an upgrade at inside linebacker.


29. Dallas Cowboys
Record: 13-3
Scouts Inc.'s biggest needs: CB, WR, OT, ILB, RB
Projected pick: Leodis McKelvin, CB, Troy
After nabbing a vertical threat at wide receiver five picks earlier in the person of Manningham, Dallas can take a chance on a potential shutdown cornerback in McKelvin. He has excellent speed and can also be a contributor in the return game, and McKelvin held his own against big-time competition this season.


30. San Francisco 49ers (from 13-3 Indianapolis)
Record: 5-11
Scouts Inc.'s biggest needs: WR, OT, OLB, DE, QB
Projected pick: James Hardy*, WR, Indiana
The 49ers need a playmaker at wide receiver to take the attention away from TE Vernon Davis and some pressure off QB Alex Smith. And although Hardy comes with some baggage and he needs some polishing, no receiver in this class possesses a more imposing combination of size and natural athleticism.


31. Green Bay Packers***
Record: 13-3
Scouts Inc.'s biggest needs: OT, S, CB, TE, P
Projected pick: Fred Davis, TE, USC
Former first-round pick Bubba Franks never developed into a difference-maker in the passing game and his career is on the steady decline. Davis emerged as the Trojans' go-to-receiver with 62 receptions as a senior, finally getting a chance to showcase his outstanding athletic ability. Packers QB Brett Favre would certainly welcome the addition of a tight end like Davis, who can stretch the seam and generate yards after the catch.


32. New England Patriots***
Record: 16-0
Scouts Inc.'s three biggest needs: ILB, CB, OLB, OL depth
Projected pick: Pick forfeited.
The Patriots forfeit this pick as part of the penalty handed down for illegally taping Jets coaches from the sideline in Week 1.

Todd McShay is the director of college football scouting for Scouts Inc. He has been evaluating prospects for the NFL draft since 1998.

[cadmonkey]

Good old Todd McShay. The kid was a friggen riot in the locker room when we played football together. He had maybe one of the hottest girlfriends I have ever seen.

[Micjones]

I would absolutely love that pick.

[DaKCMan AP]

He doesn't have Oher going in the 1st round

[Fish]

Originally Posted by DaKCMan AP

He doesn't have Oher going in the 1st round

Slightly puzzled at that myself....

[SBK]

Originally Posted by DaKCMan AP

He doesn't have Oher going in the 1st round

I saw that too. Switch to Ellis in the first and grab Oher in the second? Yes please.

[HC_Chief]

DE is our second greatest need? Really?

[HolmeZz]

I like how it says 3 biggest needs and proceeds to name 5 positions.

[jjchieffan]

Originally Posted by DaKCMan AP

He doesn't have Oher going in the 1st round

Yeah, I noticed that. If he was available for our second pick, then we could trade down and take a different position in the first round. I can't imagine him falling that far though.

[Chiefmanwillcatch]

he's wrong then.

[The Franchise]

Would it be wrong to grab Long in the 1st and Oher in the 2nd?