MU ** Mizzou vs West Virginia **

|Zach| · 03-20-2010, 09:39 PM

#10 University of Missouri Tigers (23-10, 10-6 Big 12) vs.
#2 West Virginia University Mountaineers (28-6, 13-5 Big East)

Tip-off: Approximately 1:40 p.m. CST (or 30 minutes following conclusion of Game 1)
Arena: HSBC Arena - Buffalo, N.Y. (18,500)
TV: CBS - (Gus Johnson play-by-play; Len Elmore analyst)
Radio: Tiger Radio Network (Mike Kelly play-by-play; Gary Link analyst)
Series: Only meeting March 19, 1992; Mizzou win 89-78

**KcMizzou** · 03-20-2010, 09:40 PM

Lets go Tigers. Nothing to lose here...

Play loose, and leave it all on the court.

**CosmicPal** · 03-20-2010, 09:43 PM

As much as I hate the fuggen Tiggers, I'll pull for you guys.

Make the Big 12 proud.

Spott · 03-20-2010, 09:44 PM

I still have the last meeting on VHS. IIRC, there was a delay in that game because of a power outage.

**Saulbadguy** · 03-20-2010, 09:46 PM

I'm torn. I owe gratitude to Huggs for what he did for Kansas State basketball. MU advancing to the S16 would further anger the KU blowhards. Then there is the whole "bracket" thing...

Either way - i'll be happy.

|Zach| · 03-20-2010, 09:47 PM

Some analysis via RockMNation.

The best matchup Mizzou could have hoped for.

I'm not going to try to convince you Mizzou will win this game. But I am going to say that, for a 2-vs-10 game, the matchups are pretty damn favorable for Mizzou. Using my rough "2 pts for a big advantage, 1 for a small one" test, WVU has a 3-2 advantage when Mizzou's on offense, and it's 3-3 when WVU's on offense. The size of some of the "big" advantages varies -- obviously WVU's advantage on the offensive glass is much bigger than Mizzou's turnover advantages or FG% defense advantage, but still ... this certainly backs up the notion that WVU has to account for Mizzou's matchup advantages as much as MU has to account for WVU's.

Where WVU is strongest

1. Their best offense is missed shots. So according to Ken Pomeroy's numbers, the Mountaineers have the 12th best offense in the country despite the fact that they a) shoot well over 20 3-pointers a game, and b) shoot the 3-ball quite badly (202nd in the country in 3PT%). How can this be? Because they simply rebound the crap out of the ball. You get the distinct impression that they will often yank up a 3-pointer just to get the offense rolling -- everybody crashes the glass, they grab more offensive rebounds than almost anybody in the country (only Old Dominion grabs more), and their high assist level (they're 15th in Assists Per FG Made) suggests that once they've grabbed the offensive rebound, they pretty quickly find somebody for a relatively high-percentage shot. It's an odd combination, but there's no arguing just how effective it is. And as a Mizzou fan rooting for a team that sometimes gives up a ton of offensive rebounds, it's absolutely petrifying.

2. They're just so damn big. This isn't the tallest team in the world (only 113th in Pomeroy's Effective Height measure), but as I've mentioned numerous times this week, every single player in the WVU rotation goes at least 200 pounds. As means of comparison, four Mizzou regulars are under 200 (Zaire Taylor 189, Marcus Denmon 185, Mike Dixon 175, Miguel Paul 172). Plus, all but two WVU regulars are at least 215 pounds ... while without Justin Safford, Mizzou has just two total (Key Ramsey 217, Steve Moore 264). Of course, Mizzou might be able to counter size with speed, but ... well, they're going to have to do a really good job of asserting their own identity and style because by simply walking onto the court, WVU asserts theirs.

Where they are weakest

1. They take chances that don't pay off. WVU's defense ranks well overall, but a pretty iffy combination points to potential Mizzou success if Mizzou can attack as well as they did against Clemson -- WVU's defense is just 250th in Steal% and 228th in FTA/FGA. This could allow Mizzou to win the ball control battle and get to the line a bit, but it all depends on their offensive mindset.

2. They may be big, but they're thin. WVU has five players who average at least 23 minutes per game, three who average at least 32 (Kevin Jones 32.6, Devin Ebanks 33.7, Da'Sean Butler a whopping 35.7). Because of this, and because of the fact that nobody below the top five average even 15.0 minutes per game, makes them 297th in Bench Minutes. Needless to say, that's not a great position to be in if Mizzou is able to inflict their style on you. Pretty clear that the identity battle will be of extreme importance in this one.

Keys to the Game

R-E-B-O-U-N-D. Duh. It's not rocket science to suggest that Mizzou has to be able to at least compete with WVU on the glass, particularly when WVU is on offense. Making them a one-and-done offense just murders them. The Mountaineers are the 2nd-best offensive rebounding team in the country, which is scary considering that Mizzou ranks near the bottom of the country in defensive rebounding.

If there's a silver lining here, it's that Mizzou has actually represented relatively well against the best offensive rebounding teams:

Offensive Rebounds Allowed by Mizzou Against Top Offensive Rebounding Teams
vs #1 Old Dominion - Expected: 9, Actual: 8 (-1)
#5 Kansas State - Expected: 12, Actual: 12 (0)
at #5 Kansas State - Expected: 15, Actual: 13 (-2)

It appears that when Mizzou faces such a strong offensive rebounding team, they are able to circle the wagons and keep them off the glass somewhat. Of course, that comes by slowing the tempo down and keeping guards back to help on the glass (all three of the above games were extremely low-scoring, especially for Mizzou). Mizzou will really want to push the tempo tomorrow, so seeing how they balance urges and needs will be interesting to watch.

Tempo, Tempo, Tempo. Only six NCAA tourney teams play a slower tempo than WVU. Meanwhile, when at their best, Mizzou is moving faster than any team in the country. We'll put it like this: the magic number is 67. For every possession this game goes over 67, Mizzou's odds of winning increase by 5%. For every possession under, they decrease by 5%. That's completely unscientific, but it's probably true.

The issue here is found in Key #1 above. To keep WVU off the glass, Mizzou will likely have to sacrifice some tempo. This shows you the risk-reward situation that Mike Anderson will be dealing with tomorrow.

How long does West Virginia get sucked in? When a team plays Mizzou for the first time, especially the Mizzou team that showed up to play Clemson, there is almost no question that their brains will get sped up at some point, and Mizzou will go on at least a small run. It happened to Clemson even though Clemson likes to play fast, and it happened to every team Mizzou played in last year's NCAA Tournament. UConn almost certainly would have lost to Mizzou in the Elite Eight last year if Kemba Walker hadn't gotten hot, as even though they had an extreme size advantage, they just didn't know how to slow the game down once Mizzou got going.

How West Virginia handles the non-stop pressure -- not just the full-court press itself, but the halfcourt defense, the transition offense, and all the other components that make up the Fastest 40 Minutes in Basketball style -- will dictate how this game plays out, and since a Bob Huggins team hasn't faced this style since he was coaching at KSU, we just have no idea how they will adapt.

**KcMizzou** · 03-20-2010, 09:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CosmicPal

As much as I hate the fuggen Tiggers, I'll pull for you guys.

Make the Big 12 proud.

Thank you , man.

**mikeyis4dcats.** · 03-20-2010, 09:51 PM

Go Tigers. Hope you win, although my gut says Huggineers by 15

StcChief · 03-20-2010, 09:54 PM

Go MU...any east coast loss is excellent.

**KcMizzou** · 03-20-2010, 09:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mikeyis4dcats.

Go Tigers. Hope you win, although my gut says Huggineers by 15

So does mine... but I've be wrong before.

Mizzou's playing with house money now.

**CosmicPal** · 03-20-2010, 09:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KcMizzou

Thank you , man.

You're welcome, man. I'm still pissed and drunk over my team's loss, but I'm man enough to root for the other teams in our conference. My brackets are all shot to hell, but there's something about a conference rival making it to the FF that makes it all worthwhile. If KU can't be that team, then hopefully one of the teams that are still alive can do it.

Just stop giving me ****ing grief about my team losing.

**Saulbadguy** · 03-20-2010, 09:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by StcChief

Go MU...any east coast loss is excellent.

I don't really consider WVU "East Coast". I consider them more in the middle of ****ing nowhere mountain country.

MoreLemonPledge · 03-20-2010, 09:57 PM

Show the Beakers how it's done, Tigers.

**KcMizzou** · 03-20-2010, 09:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CosmicPal

You're welcome, man. I'm still pissed and drunk over my team's loss, but I'm man enough to root for the other teams in our conference. My brackets are all shot to hell, but there's something about a conference rival making it to the FF that makes it all worthwhile. If KU can't be that team, then hopefully one of the teams that are still alive can do it.

Just stop giving me ****ing grief about my team losing.

Ok, ok... sorry about that post in the other thread. Consider it taken back.

**CosmicPal** · 03-20-2010, 09:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KcMizzou

Ok, ok... sorry about that post in the other thread. Consider it taken back.

The **** I care. That was a dumb moment in time that made the ChiefsPlanet HOF. We all have our moments. At least I made the HOF. Shit!

03-20-2010, 09:39 PM
\|Zach\| For The Glory Of The City Join Date: Sep 2002 Location: Kansas City Casino cash: $5206768	Mizzou vs West Virginia #10 University of Missouri Tigers (23-10, 10-6 Big 12) vs. #2 West Virginia University Mountaineers (28-6, 13-5 Big East) Tip-off: Approximately 1:40 p.m. CST (or 30 minutes following conclusion of Game 1) Arena: HSBC Arena - Buffalo, N.Y. (18,500) TV: CBS - (Gus Johnson play-by-play; Len Elmore analyst) Radio: Tiger Radio Network (Mike Kelly play-by-play; Gary Link analyst) Series: Only meeting March 19, 1992; Mizzou win 89-78
Posts: 53,468

03-20-2010, 09:43 PM	#3
CosmicPal Learn it. Know it. Live it. Join Date: Nov 2002 Location: St. Petersburg, FL Casino cash: $10004900	As much as I hate the fuggen Tiggers, I'll pull for you guys. Make the Big 12 proud. __________________ - * - * - * - * - * - * - * - * - * - Four blessings upon my fellow planeteers: Older whiskey, younger women, faster horses, and more money.
Posts: 10,840

03-20-2010, 09:44 PM	#4
Spott Court Jester Join Date: Aug 2000 Location: Orlando Casino cash: $2812400	I still have the last meeting on VHS. IIRC, there was a delay in that game because of a power outage.
Posts: 19,777

03-20-2010, 09:47 PM	#6
\|Zach\| For The Glory Of The City Join Date: Sep 2002 Location: Kansas City Casino cash: $5206768	Some analysis via RockMNation. The best matchup Mizzou could have hoped for. I'm not going to try to convince you Mizzou will win this game. But I am going to say that, for a 2-vs-10 game, the matchups are pretty damn favorable for Mizzou. Using my rough "2 pts for a big advantage, 1 for a small one" test, WVU has a 3-2 advantage when Mizzou's on offense, and it's 3-3 when WVU's on offense. The size of some of the "big" advantages varies -- obviously WVU's advantage on the offensive glass is much bigger than Mizzou's turnover advantages or FG% defense advantage, but still ... this certainly backs up the notion that WVU has to account for Mizzou's matchup advantages as much as MU has to account for WVU's. Where WVU is strongest 1. Their best offense is missed shots. So according to Ken Pomeroy's numbers, the Mountaineers have the 12th best offense in the country despite the fact that they a) shoot well over 20 3-pointers a game, and b) shoot the 3-ball quite badly (202nd in the country in 3PT%). How can this be? Because they simply rebound the crap out of the ball. You get the distinct impression that they will often yank up a 3-pointer just to get the offense rolling -- everybody crashes the glass, they grab more offensive rebounds than almost anybody in the country (only Old Dominion grabs more), and their high assist level (they're 15th in Assists Per FG Made) suggests that once they've grabbed the offensive rebound, they pretty quickly find somebody for a relatively high-percentage shot. It's an odd combination, but there's no arguing just how effective it is. And as a Mizzou fan rooting for a team that sometimes gives up a ton of offensive rebounds, it's absolutely petrifying. 2. They're just so damn big. This isn't the tallest team in the world (only 113th in Pomeroy's Effective Height measure), but as I've mentioned numerous times this week, every single player in the WVU rotation goes at least 200 pounds. As means of comparison, four Mizzou regulars are under 200 (Zaire Taylor 189, Marcus Denmon 185, Mike Dixon 175, Miguel Paul 172). Plus, all but two WVU regulars are at least 215 pounds ... while without Justin Safford, Mizzou has just two total (Key Ramsey 217, Steve Moore 264). Of course, Mizzou might be able to counter size with speed, but ... well, they're going to have to do a really good job of asserting their own identity and style because by simply walking onto the court, WVU asserts theirs. Where they are weakest 1. They take chances that don't pay off. WVU's defense ranks well overall, but a pretty iffy combination points to potential Mizzou success if Mizzou can attack as well as they did against Clemson -- WVU's defense is just 250th in Steal% and 228th in FTA/FGA. This could allow Mizzou to win the ball control battle and get to the line a bit, but it all depends on their offensive mindset. 2. They may be big, but they're thin. WVU has five players who average at least 23 minutes per game, three who average at least 32 (Kevin Jones 32.6, Devin Ebanks 33.7, Da'Sean Butler a whopping 35.7). Because of this, and because of the fact that nobody below the top five average even 15.0 minutes per game, makes them 297th in Bench Minutes. Needless to say, that's not a great position to be in if Mizzou is able to inflict their style on you. Pretty clear that the identity battle will be of extreme importance in this one. Keys to the Game R-E-B-O-U-N-D. Duh. It's not rocket science to suggest that Mizzou has to be able to at least compete with WVU on the glass, particularly when WVU is on offense. Making them a one-and-done offense just murders them. The Mountaineers are the 2nd-best offensive rebounding team in the country, which is scary considering that Mizzou ranks near the bottom of the country in defensive rebounding. If there's a silver lining here, it's that Mizzou has actually represented relatively well against the best offensive rebounding teams: Offensive Rebounds Allowed by Mizzou Against Top Offensive Rebounding Teams vs #1 Old Dominion - Expected: 9, Actual: 8 (-1) #5 Kansas State - Expected: 12, Actual: 12 (0) at #5 Kansas State - Expected: 15, Actual: 13 (-2) It appears that when Mizzou faces such a strong offensive rebounding team, they are able to circle the wagons and keep them off the glass somewhat. Of course, that comes by slowing the tempo down and keeping guards back to help on the glass (all three of the above games were extremely low-scoring, especially for Mizzou). Mizzou will really want to push the tempo tomorrow, so seeing how they balance urges and needs will be interesting to watch. Tempo, Tempo, Tempo. Only six NCAA tourney teams play a slower tempo than WVU. Meanwhile, when at their best, Mizzou is moving faster than any team in the country. We'll put it like this: the magic number is 67. For every possession this game goes over 67, Mizzou's odds of winning increase by 5%. For every possession under, they decrease by 5%. That's completely unscientific, but it's probably true. The issue here is found in Key #1 above. To keep WVU off the glass, Mizzou will likely have to sacrifice some tempo. This shows you the risk-reward situation that Mike Anderson will be dealing with tomorrow. How long does West Virginia get sucked in? When a team plays Mizzou for the first time, especially the Mizzou team that showed up to play Clemson, there is almost no question that their brains will get sped up at some point, and Mizzou will go on at least a small run. It happened to Clemson even though Clemson likes to play fast, and it happened to every team Mizzou played in last year's NCAA Tournament. UConn almost certainly would have lost to Mizzou in the Elite Eight last year if Kemba Walker hadn't gotten hot, as even though they had an extreme size advantage, they just didn't know how to slow the game down once Mizzou got going. How West Virginia handles the non-stop pressure -- not just the full-court press itself, but the halfcourt defense, the transition offense, and all the other components that make up the Fastest 40 Minutes in Basketball style -- will dictate how this game plays out, and since a Bob Huggins team hasn't faced this style since he was coaching at KSU, we just have no idea how they will adapt.
Posts: 53,468

03-20-2010, 09:51 PM	#8
mikeyis4dcats. Scarlett Johansson's boytoy Join Date: Nov 2006 Casino cash: $9555998	Go Tigers. Hope you win, although my gut says Huggineers by 15
Posts: 12,526

03-20-2010, 09:40 PM	#2
KcMizzou Supporter Join Date: Sep 2002 Location: Parkville MO Casino cash: $10005170	Lets go Tigers. Nothing to lose here... Play loose, and leave it all on the court.
Posts: 54,695

03-20-2010, 09:46 PM	#5
Saulbadguy When a nightmare becomes real Join Date: Nov 2003 Casino cash: $2366966	I'm torn. I owe gratitude to Huggs for what he did for Kansas State basketball. MU advancing to the S16 would further anger the KU blowhards. Then there is the whole "bracket" thing... Either way - i'll be happy.
Posts: 46,969

03-20-2010, 09:54 PM	#9
StcChief Playing for #1 Draft Pick Join Date: Oct 2003 Location: Just West of Lambs land Casino cash: $10004900	Go MU...any east coast loss is excellent. __________________ sig test for this screwy schema
Posts: 25,901

03-20-2010, 09:57 PM	#13
MoreLemonPledge M-I-Z S-E-C Join Date: Apr 2009 Casino cash: $10004927	Show the Beakers how it's done, Tigers. __________________
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