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11-04-2010, 01:32 PM | |
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Playoff Odds according to footballoutsiders.com
I just posted this on the Jets site (my team for those that don't know), thought you guys might like to see what the predictions/simulations are for KC
Compiled by Mike Harris The playoff odds report plays out the season 10,000 times. A random draw assigns each team a win or loss for each game. The probability that a team will be given a win is based on an equation which considers the current Weighted DVOA ratings of the two teams as well as home-field advantage. (DVOA ratings are explained here.) Mean Wins is the average number of wins for this team over the 10,000 simulations. Odds are given for winning each playoff seed, as well as for winning the division (DIV), earning a bye week (BYE), or winning a wild card (WC). TOT represents odds of making the playoffs in any fashion. Code:
AFC West Team Rec WEI DVOA Mean Wins #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 DIV BYE WC TOT CHANGE KC 5-2 29.2% 11.4 19.1% 24.9% 23.2% 25.5% 0.5% 1.0% 92.7% 44.0% 1.5% 94.2% 0.4% SD 3-5 17.0% 8.0 0.0% 0.6% 1.4% 2.9% 1.8% 7.3% 4.9% 0.7% 9.1% 14.0% 4.0% OAK 4-4 -9.1% 7.0 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 1.7% 0.3% 1.6% 2.3% 0.2% 1.9% 4.2% 2.3% DEN 2-6 -24.2% 4.6 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% -0.3% Playoff Scenarios This report lists the odds of each team * Reaching the Conference Championship Game * Winning the Conference Championship Game * Winning the Super Bowl Code:
Conf App Conf Win SB Win NYG 50.3% 30.6% 16.0% KC 43.1% 23.6% 13.1% NE 41.1% 22.1% 12.0% PIT 36.6% 19.4% 10.4% PHI 32.7% 18.8% 10.3% ATL 46.0% 22.5% 9.6% GB 30.7% 14.4% 6.5% TEN 18.3% 8.8% 5.0% IND 17.2% 7.8% 3.8% NYJ 17.7% 8.0% 3.7% NO 17.7% 7.2% 2.8% BAL 14.2% 5.8% 2.6% MIA 5.7% 2.4% 1.2% TB 6.8% 2.0% 0.7% SEA 6.6% 1.9% 0.6% SD 2.7% 1.1% 0.5% HOU 2.6% 1.0% 0.3% SF 1.8% 0.5% 0.2% WAS 1.7% 0.5% 0.2% CHI 1.6% 0.5% 0.2% STL 1.9% 0.5% 0.1% MIN 1.4% 0.4% 0.1% DET 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% OAK 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% ARI 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% JAC 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% CLE 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% CIN 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% |
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11-04-2010, 02:05 PM | #31 |
Bob Carr is a raging douche
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11-04-2010, 02:05 PM | #32 |
SNAP THE ****ING BALL!!!
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I think there is an extremely small fraction of CP that thinks the Chiefs have a legitimate shot at winning or even attending the Superbowl. Still, if they make the playoffs there's always a chance of making some noise and who knows?
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11-04-2010, 02:06 PM | #33 |
The man you could post like.
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11-04-2010, 02:06 PM | #34 |
Shaken. Not stirred.
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VARSITY
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gee,those stats look strikingly familiar to cdcox's.
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11-04-2010, 02:07 PM | #35 | ||
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No.
Not likely...
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11-04-2010, 02:08 PM | #36 |
In Search of a Life
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I'm OK with making the playoffs, and possibly losing in the first round. Got a young team by-and-large. And if we do make the playoffs, I do not think it is written in stone that we couldn't sneak out a win or two. Gave the Colts a pretty fair run at Indy... when they had all of their weapons still playing.
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11-04-2010, 02:09 PM | #37 |
Bob Carr is a raging douche
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11-04-2010, 02:11 PM | #38 |
MFIC
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I realize that and the majority of posters on CP are enjoying the early success and cautious about the future. You're right you never know who's going to make noise during the playoffs. The challenge for the Chiefs will be getting there.
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11-04-2010, 02:12 PM | #39 | ||
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Being asked to die however, is inexcusable. Unless they politely asked you to die in a fire... If so, it'd be great if you took their advice.
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11-04-2010, 02:12 PM | #40 |
FINALLY! The wait is over.
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Read the ****ing table, dick hole. No one here would predict a SB for the Chiefs, you reerun.
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11-04-2010, 02:12 PM | #41 | |||
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We will. The challenge, as always, will be accomplishing something once we do...
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11-04-2010, 02:13 PM | #42 | |
Needs more middle fingers
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No one here is calling the Chiefs Superbowl contenders. Where do you pull this shit from? And winning the division doesn't make us Playoff caliber? According to the NFL, it does. You are really reaching for shit dude. Chill out.
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11-04-2010, 02:13 PM | #43 |
FINALLY! The wait is over.
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Dude, you've been here longer than this week, and probably plan on sticking around longer than this week. That said, beware of playing with the Raider trolls on the board if you wish your stay to be even remotely pleasant.
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11-04-2010, 02:14 PM | #44 |
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I know, the chart was confusing to you but my post was directly in response to those numbers and things. I doubt the Chiefs or the Giants get to the Super Bowl but those number thingies show that, right now, they are the teams most likely to go to the big game. Would you like me to explain how some numbers are larger than others (kind of like comparing dick sizes in the jail bathroom) and what that might mean?
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11-04-2010, 02:14 PM | #45 |
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It's been a damn fun ride so far this year as well. Time will tell if it will all come crashing down, but it sure seems as if this team has been built and is being coached in a fashion to possibly make it to the playoffs much earlier than expected. Maybe even this season.
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