Obama is going to lose big time

[ChiefaRoo]

I'm calling it. The guy is going to lose in an electoral landslide.

[Chiefshrink]

Originally Posted by tredadda

I think you badly underestimate how liberal Michigan is.

You badly underestimate how much Obama has pissed off Independents and more importantly how vastly afraid "We The People" are of losing our country.

Wisconsin should give you a huge clue as to what will happen in Nov.

[Aries Walker]

I don't know why, accoriding to the Huffington Post there, Iowa and Michigan each have Obama leading 47-44, and Iowa is considered Leaning Obama, while Michigan is considered a toss-up. Hmm.

[FD]

Originally Posted by Chiefshrink

This IS a very UNIQUE election year my friend. You thought the 2010 Nov elections were a disaster for your party, the political nuclear bomb is next my friend. Count on it !!

Give us a prediction, Romney's electoral votes and popular vote %.

[Comrade Crapski]

Originally Posted by Aries Walker

I don't know why, accoriding to the Huffington Post there, Iowa and Michigan each have Obama leading 47-44, and Iowa is considered Leaning Obama, while Michigan is considered a toss-up. Hmm.

Only leading by 3 points in left leaning states? Obama is in trouble. Rightfully so. He's done a horrible job. He's been a complete failure.

How anybody could possibly want 4 more years of this, I can only conclude they hate this country.

[alnorth]

Originally Posted by Tom.Jay61

Only leading by 3 points in left leaning states? Obama is in trouble. Rightfully so. He's done a horrible job. He's been a complete failure.

How anybody could possibly want 4 more years of this, I can only conclude they hate this country.

Bush has proven, twice, that you cant beat somebody with nobody, and Romney is definitely nobody.

He's having a hell of a lot of trouble against Obama because his approval ratings are extremely low. People like to talk about Obama at or slightly under 50, but Romney's approval rating is in the 30's.

He's not going to win if that keeps up.

[Comrade Crapski]

Originally Posted by Aries Walker

That would be 270 to 268 - an exciting election night, if nothing else.

Romney will pick up a surprise state, like Wisconsin or maybe even PA if voter fraud can be kept in check in Philadelphia.

[alnorth]

Originally Posted by Chiefshrink

You badly underestimate how much Obama has pissed off Independents and more importantly how vastly afraid "We The People" are of losing our country.

Wisconsin should give you a huge clue as to what will happen in Nov.

You live in a talk radio echo chamber bubble where everyone you listen to agrees with you, and you presume almost everyone out there outside the looney left thinks like you do. They don't.

Wisconsin was irrelevant in the presidential picture because it was driven by local issues and a state going broke. A large chunk of union voters voted for Walker because the unions went too far. That doesn't mean suddenly Romney has a big chunk of the union vote.

In the exit polls, Wisconsin voters favored Obama over Romney by 7 points. A TON of people who fully intend to vote for Obama, voted for Walker. About one-fifth of Walker voters support Obama.

Some people who desperately wanted to hold onto the crack-dream of a Republican winning a presidential election in WI (it wont happen, LOL) just shrugged and said "thats weird, I dont believe it", and carried on with the delusion that the Walker win meant Romney was taking Wisconsin.

He's not. Don't be dumb.

[Aries Walker]

Slow night at work tonight. So, electoral maps.

CNN, CNN (Carville), CNN (Castellano), HuffPo, 270toWin, MSNBC (scroll down), RealClearPolitics, and USAToday. I can't find one for FOX News.

They all agree the following states are most likely going to Obama:
Alaska, Washington, Oregon, California, Minnesota, Illinois, Maryland, DC, Delaware, New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Vermont, and Maine. They total 196 electoral votes.

They all agree the following states are most likely going to Romney:
Hawai'i, Idaho, Utah, Arizona, Montana, Wyoming, North and South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Arkansas, Louisiana, Indiana, Kentucky, Tennessee, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina, and West Virginia. They total 181 electoral votes.

Assuming they all hold true, which I think is a safe bet, Obama leads 196 to 181, with 161 unallocated. 270 are needed to win.

As for the other states (number of delegates for each state in parenthesis):
- Carville and HuffPo say Nevada (6) is going Obama; everyone else says it will be a toss-up. It went Democrat last time, but Republican in '04 and '00.
- Colorado (9) is the same, except it's Castellano and HuffPo who call it Democrat. It also went D last time, but R in '04 and '00.
- Only the USAToday is calling New Mexico (5) a toss-up; everyone else says it's going Obama. It went for Democratic in '08 and '00, but Republican in '04.
- Only HuffPo and USAToday are calling Iowa (6) for Obama. Everyone else says it's too close to call. It went Democrat in '08 and '00, but Republican in '04.
- Everyone is calling Missouri (10) for Romney, except RealClearPolitics, who says it's a toss-up. It's gone Republican the last three times.
- CNN, Carville, Castellano, and HuffPo all give Wisconsin (10) to Obama; 270ToWin, MSNBC, RealClearPolitics, and USAToday all call it too close to call. It has gone Democrat the last three times.
- HuffPo RealClearPolitics, and USAToday say Michigan (16) is too close to call; the other five call it for Obama. It's also gone Democrat the last three times.
- Only Carville calls Ohio (18) for Obama; everyone else says it's too close to call. It went to Obama in '08, but to Bush in '04 and '00.
- Castellano calls Florida (29) for Romney; everyone else says it's a toss-up. It also went for Obama in '08, and Bush in '04 and '00.
- CNN, Carville, and Castellano all call North Carolina (15) for Romney; the other five all say it's too close to call. It too went Obama in '08, and Bush in '04 and '00.
- Everyone says Virginia (13) is too close to call, except Carville calls it for Obama, and Castellano calls it for Romney. It went for Obama in '08, but Bush in '04 and '00.
- 270ToWin and USAToday call Pennsylvania (20) too close to call, but everyone else says it's going Obama. It's gone Democrat the past three elections.
- Carville and HuffPo call New Hampshire for Obama; everyone else says it's too close. It went Democrat in '08 and '04, but Republican in '00.

[Comrade Crapski]

Originally Posted by Aries Walker

Slow night at work tonight. So, electoral maps.

CNN, CNN (Carville), CNN (Castellano), HuffPo, 270toWin, MSNBC (scroll down), RealClearPolitics, and USAToday. I can't find one for FOX News.

They all agree the following states are most likely going to Obama:
Alaska, Washington, Oregon, California, Minnesota, Illinois, Maryland, DC, Delaware, New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Vermont, and Maine. They total 196 electoral votes.

They all agree the following states are most likely going to Romney:
Hawai'i, Idaho, Utah, Arizona, Montana, Wyoming, North and South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Arkansas, Louisiana, Indiana, Kentucky, Tennessee, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina, and West Virginia. They total 181 electoral votes.

Assuming they all hold true, which I think is a safe bet, Obama leads 196 to 181, with 161 unallocated. 270 are needed to win.

As for the other states (number of delegates for each state in parenthesis):
- Carville and HuffPo say Nevada (6) is going Obama; everyone else says it will be a toss-up. It went Democrat last time, but Republican in '04 and '00.
- Colorado (9) is the same, except it's Castellano and HuffPo who call it Democrat. It also went D last time, but R in '04 and '00.
- Only the USAToday is calling New Mexico (5) a toss-up; everyone else says it's going Obama. It went for Democratic in '08 and '00, but Republican in '04.
- Only HuffPo and USAToday are calling Iowa (6) for Obama. Everyone else says it's too close to call. It went Democrat in '08 and '00, but Republican in '04.
- Everyone is calling Missouri (10) for Romney, except RealClearPolitics, who says it's a toss-up. It's gone Republican the last three times.
- CNN, Carville, Castellano, and HuffPo all give Wisconsin (10) to Obama; 270ToWin, MSNBC, RealClearPolitics, and USAToday all call it too close to call. It has gone Democrat the last three times.
- HuffPo RealClearPolitics, and USAToday say Michigan (16) is too close to call; the other five call it for Obama. It's also gone Democrat the last three times.
- Only Carville calls Ohio (18) for Obama; everyone else says it's too close to call. It went to Obama in '08, but to Bush in '04 and '00.
- Castellano calls Florida (29) for Romney; everyone else says it's a toss-up. It also went for Obama in '08, and Bush in '04 and '00.
- CNN, Carville, and Castellano all call North Carolina (15) for Romney; the other five all say it's too close to call. It too went Obama in '08, and Bush in '04 and '00.
- Everyone says Virginia (13) is too close to call, except Carville calls it for Obama, and Castellano calls it for Romney. It went for Obama in '08, but Bush in '04 and '00.
- 270ToWin and USAToday call Pennsylvania (20) too close to call, but everyone else says it's going Obama. It's gone Democrat the past three elections.
- Carville and HuffPo call New Hampshire for Obama; everyone else says it's too close. It went Democrat in '08 and '04, but Republican in '00.

All those "close calls" Huffpo and Carville keep saying will go to Obama?

Wishful thinking. That's all that is.

[Chiefshrink]

Originally Posted by alnorth

You live in a talk radio echo chamber bubble where everyone you listen to agrees with you, and you presume almost everyone out there outside the looney left thinks like you do. They don't.

Wisconsin was irrelevant in the presidential picture because it was driven by local issues and a state going broke. A large chunk of union voters voted for Walker because the unions went too far. That doesn't mean suddenly Romney has a big chunk of the union vote.

In the exit polls, Wisconsin voters favored Obama over Romney by 7 points. A TON of people who fully intend to vote for Obama, voted for Walker. About one-fifth of Walker voters support Obama.

Some people who desperately wanted to hold onto the crack-dream of a Republican winning a presidential election in WI (it wont happen, LOL) just shrugged and said "thats weird, I dont believe it", and carried on with the delusion that the Walker win meant Romney was taking Wisconsin.

He's not. Don't be dumb.

Look in the mirror my friend especially in that 'progressive echo chamber' you live in. Believe all that local Wisc union BS drivel you want touted by your Pravada Stenographers but the Wisc people are a huge indicator.

342-196 Romney in a landslide.

[Chiefshrink]

Originally Posted by Tom.Jay61

Romney will pick up a surprise state, like Wisconsin or maybe even PA if voter fraud can be kept in check in Philadelphia.

I'm thinking the Black Panthers will be out in full force for sure as well but I think "We The People" will be in more full force

[Aries Walker]

Continuing. Let's narrow down the contested states a bit.

The following states have only one or two sources out of eight disputing it, so I'll give them to the majority consensus: New Mexico and Pennsylvania to Obama, Missouri to Romney. Now it's Obama 221, Romney 191, 126 unallocated.

More than half of the sources say Michigan will probably go Obama way. That, coupled with the fact that it's gone Democrat the last three times, leads me to put it in the Obama camp. Obama 237, Romney 191, 110 unallocated.

Of those 110, Romney would need to pick up 79. The importance of Florida cannot be overstated; if Obama were to get it, it would place him at 266 and Romney would need to capture every other contested state, which I don't see happening. So if Romney loses Florida, he almost certainly loses - but for the sake of keeping the argument going, let's say he wins it. Obama 237, Romney 200, 81 unallocated.

Romney still needs to win 50 of those 81, which are Ohio (18), North Carolina (15), Virginia (13), Wisconsin (10), Colorado (9), Nevada (6), Iowa (6), and New Hampshire (4). He would have to win either Ohio or North Carolina, because if Obama took both of those, Obama would win.

However you slice it, Romney has an uphill road ahead of him. He has to - he has *got* to - win Florida; otherwise his only chance I think is to turn Michigan, which is a long shot at best.

[Aries Walker]

Originally Posted by Tom.Jay61

All those "close calls" Huffpo and Carville keep saying will go to Obama?

Wishful thinking. That's all that is.

I agree. HuffPo and Carville are definitely slanted towards wishful thinking on the Democrat side. HuffPo specifically gives Nevada, Colorado, Iowa, Wisconsin and New Hampshire all to Obama, and it's only July. That's a bit . . . much.

[Aries Walker]

Originally Posted by Aries Walker

They all agree the following states are most likely going to Obama:
Alaska, Washington, Oregon, California, Minnesota, Illinois, Maryland, DC, Delaware, New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Vermont, and Maine. They total 196 electoral votes.

Originally Posted by Chiefshrink

342-196 Romney in a landslide.

So you think Obama will win only those 16 states, and not one more? If so, you're either deluded, trolling, or really bad at math.

[Comrade Crapski]

Originally Posted by Aries Walker

I agree. HuffPo and Carville are definitely slanted towards wishful thinking on the Democrat side. HuffPo specifically gives Nevada, Colorado, Iowa, Wisconsin and New Hampshire all to Obama, and it's only July. That's a bit . . . much.

Nevada has the highest unemployment rate for the states--- 11.6%.

I wouldn't be shocked to see Romney win Nevada.

Another dark horse for Romney----

I know NJ very rarely goes for the Republican, but once in a blue moon they get it right. I can see Romney winning NJ, especially after witnessing Christie's victory a few years ago.

NJ unemployment is a whopping 9.6%.