Football Which Positions are Most Important?

MagicHef · 08-09-2012, 02:03 PM

By "are Most Important," I mean, "lead to the most wins." To assess this, I figured out the strength of the correlation between any given team's "skill" (total PFF rating) at a position, and the regular season wins that team had. PFF ratings cover the last 4 years, so this is (4x32) 128 points of data.

Some results were surprising, some really weren't.

The correlation between QB rating and wins is amazing. In the past 4 years, there have been 19 QBs rated 22 or higher. None of them have had a losing season. There have been 6 QBs rated 31 or higher. None of them have won fewer than 12 games. There have been 13 QBs rated lower than -26.5. None of them had a winning season.

There was one other position that surprised me with how well it correlated with winning. The correlation was about 75% as strong as it was for QBs. Any guesses?

There was one specific subset of a position that actually had a negative correlation with wins. I don't think that increased skill at any position could actually cause a team to get worse, but of the top 5 guys at this position last year, only 1 was on a winning team. Also, arguably the best team last year had the worst play in the league at this particular position.

One explanation would be that it is a very highly regarded position and tends to be picked very early, so some of the best guys end up on the worst teams. However, there is more than one position that gets picked early to bad teams, and this correlation doesn't exist for any other position. I don't think that the effect of good play at this position is enough to overcome bad play elsewhere, unlike a position like QB. The question I am left asking is: if good (even excellent) play at this position isn't enough to cause your team as a whole to get better, why is this position picked so early?

Anyway, rank the importance of all the positions listed, and I'll post my findings later.

Here are the positions I analyzed, in alphabetical order:

C
CB
DL (4-3 DTs, 3-4 NTs, 3-4 DEs)
FB
G
HB
LB (4-3 ILBs and OLBs, 3-4 ILBs)
PR (4-3 DEs, 3-4 OLBs)
QB
S
T
TE
WR

ToxSocks · 08-09-2012, 02:05 PM

Missionary

ToxSocks · 08-09-2012, 02:05 PM

Doggy Style

durtyrute · 08-09-2012, 02:05 PM

I thought you meant sex positions. Too much time in the boob/ass/leg/porn/twitter/latina/BBW thread

ToxSocks · 08-09-2012, 02:06 PM

Cowgirl.....

you know, the Golden Trifecta

Sofa King · 08-09-2012, 02:08 PM

Figure 4 Leg Lock

**RealSNR** · 08-09-2012, 02:13 PM

Because WRs are dependent on the team around them more than any other position. Shitty teams have good to great WRs all the time because having fantastic WRs will keep your shitty offense afloat. Just look at the Chiefs.

MagicHef · 08-09-2012, 02:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SNR

Because WRs are dependent on the team around them more than any other position. Shitty teams have good to great WRs all the time because having fantastic WRs will keep your shitty offense afloat. Just look at the Chiefs.

Which question are you answering? Are you saying that WR is the position with the negative correlation?

**RealSNR** · 08-09-2012, 02:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MagicHef

Which question are you answering? Are you saying that WR is the position with the negative correlation?

Quote:

Also, arguably the best team last year had the worst play in the league at this particular position.

It's got to be the 49ers and the WR position. So yes, WR is the position with the negative correlation

mcaj22 · 08-09-2012, 02:29 PM

I'd say LT is important if you have a crappy QB. Good LT masks how awful a non elite QB really is and an elite QB can get away with having an average LT. So pending your QB...

I'd also say having a good MLBer is up there. Ray Lewis, Patrick Willis, Lawrence Timmons, Jerrod Mayo etc, guys who can be the QB of the defense. I'd argue that Derrick Johnson is the reason we even won 7 games last year.

MagicHef · 08-09-2012, 02:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SNR

It's got to be the 49ers and the WR position. So yes, WR is the position with the negative correlation

WR actually had an extremely high correlation with wins. Second only to QBs. I was stunned.

There have been 28 teams with total WR ratings over 11.1 in the last 4 years, only one of them had a losing season. There have been 25 teams with total WR ratings of less than -16.7, none of them had winning seasons.

MagicHef · 08-09-2012, 02:36 PM

Also, the top 5 WRs (by PFF ratings) last year: Johnson (10 wins), Fitzgerald (8 wins), Welker (13 wins), Nelson (15 wins), and Colston (13 wins).

Sofa King · 08-09-2012, 02:41 PM

Running backs aren't as important. AP, Steven Jackson, MJD... and a shitload more play for terrible teams.

MagicHef · 08-09-2012, 02:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hulk Hogan

Running backs aren't as important. AP, Steven Jackson, MJD... and a shitload more play for terrible teams.

Yep. Out of the 13 positions, HBs were 7th, and FBs were tied for last. Neither was the overrated (imo) position I referred to in the OP, though.

saphojunkie · 08-09-2012, 02:58 PM

Here's my guess at the order:

QB
WR
DL (4-3 DTs, 3-4 NTs, 3-4 DEs)
CB
T
LB (4-3 ILBs and OLBs, 3-4 ILBs)
S/HB (YOU SAID TIED FOR 7TH)
C
G
PR (4-3 DEs, 3-4 OLBs)
TE
FB

08-09-2012, 02:03 PM
MagicHef The Seated Villain Join Date: Apr 2007 Location: Seattle Casino cash: $560247	Which Positions are Most Important? By "are Most Important," I mean, "lead to the most wins." To assess this, I figured out the strength of the correlation between any given team's "skill" (total PFF rating) at a position, and the regular season wins that team had. PFF ratings cover the last 4 years, so this is (4x32) 128 points of data. Some results were surprising, some really weren't. The correlation between QB rating and wins is amazing. In the past 4 years, there have been 19 QBs rated 22 or higher. None of them have had a losing season. There have been 6 QBs rated 31 or higher. None of them have won fewer than 12 games. There have been 13 QBs rated lower than -26.5. None of them had a winning season. There was one other position that surprised me with how well it correlated with winning. The correlation was about 75% as strong as it was for QBs. Any guesses? There was one specific subset of a position that actually had a negative correlation with wins. I don't think that increased skill at any position could actually cause a team to get worse, but of the top 5 guys at this position last year, only 1 was on a winning team. Also, arguably the best team last year had the worst play in the league at this particular position. One explanation would be that it is a very highly regarded position and tends to be picked very early, so some of the best guys end up on the worst teams. However, there is more than one position that gets picked early to bad teams, and this correlation doesn't exist for any other position. I don't think that the effect of good play at this position is enough to overcome bad play elsewhere, unlike a position like QB. The question I am left asking is: if good (even excellent) play at this position isn't enough to cause your team as a whole to get better, why is this position picked so early? Anyway, rank the importance of all the positions listed, and I'll post my findings later. Here are the positions I analyzed, in alphabetical order: C CB DL (4-3 DTs, 3-4 NTs, 3-4 DEs) FB G HB LB (4-3 ILBs and OLBs, 3-4 ILBs) PR (4-3 DEs, 3-4 OLBs) QB S T TE WR
Posts: 10,753

08-09-2012, 02:05 PM	#2
ToxSocks Needs more middle fingers Join Date: Mar 2005 Location: San Diego Casino cash: $2123063	Missionary __________________ Life is like a dick. Sometimes it gets hard for no reason, but it can't stay hard forever.
Posts: 65,925

08-09-2012, 02:05 PM	#3
ToxSocks Needs more middle fingers Join Date: Mar 2005 Location: San Diego Casino cash: $2123063	Doggy Style __________________ Life is like a dick. Sometimes it gets hard for no reason, but it can't stay hard forever.
Posts: 65,925

08-09-2012, 02:05 PM	#4
durtyrute MVP Join Date: Mar 2011 Casino cash: $5646085	I thought you meant sex positions. Too much time in the boob/ass/leg/porn/twitter/latina/BBW thread
Posts: 5,831

08-09-2012, 02:06 PM	#5
ToxSocks Needs more middle fingers Join Date: Mar 2005 Location: San Diego Casino cash: $2123063	Cowgirl..... you know, the Golden Trifecta __________________ Life is like a dick. Sometimes it gets hard for no reason, but it can't stay hard forever.
Posts: 65,925

08-09-2012, 02:08 PM	#6
Sofa King Bump it Join Date: Nov 2008 Location: South Dakota Casino cash: $-220000 VARSITY	Figure 4 Leg Lock
Posts: 23,457

08-09-2012, 02:29 PM	#10
mcaj22 MVP Join Date: Feb 2010 Casino cash: $10014454	I'd say LT is important if you have a crappy QB. Good LT masks how awful a non elite QB really is and an elite QB can get away with having an average LT. So pending your QB... I'd also say having a good MLBer is up there. Ray Lewis, Patrick Willis, Lawrence Timmons, Jerrod Mayo etc, guys who can be the QB of the defense. I'd argue that Derrick Johnson is the reason we even won 7 games last year.
Posts: 11,886

08-09-2012, 02:36 PM	#12
MagicHef The Seated Villain Join Date: Apr 2007 Location: Seattle Casino cash: $560247	Also, the top 5 WRs (by PFF ratings) last year: Johnson (10 wins), Fitzgerald (8 wins), Welker (13 wins), Nelson (15 wins), and Colston (13 wins). __________________ With a sack in 61% of his games, SB MVP Von Miller is the most consistent pass rusher in NFL history.
Posts: 10,753

08-09-2012, 02:41 PM	#13
Sofa King Bump it Join Date: Nov 2008 Location: South Dakota Casino cash: $-220000 VARSITY	Running backs aren't as important. AP, Steven Jackson, MJD... and a shitload more play for terrible teams.
Posts: 23,457

08-09-2012, 02:58 PM	#15
saphojunkie MVP Join Date: Aug 2011 Casino cash: $2356550	Here's my guess at the order: QB WR DL (4-3 DTs, 3-4 NTs, 3-4 DEs) CB T LB (4-3 ILBs and OLBs, 3-4 ILBs) S/HB (YOU SAID TIED FOR 7TH) C G PR (4-3 DEs, 3-4 OLBs) TE FB
Posts: 12,907