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Old 08-07-2012, 07:21 PM  
whoman69 whoman69 is offline
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538

The latest 538 simulations have Obama winning 90.9% of the time with an average of 313.0 EC. The popular vote is seen as 50.8-48.3 or a 2.5 point lead for Obama.

The closest state contests are:
Florida 50.3% Obama
North Carolina 74.4% Romney
Virginia 79.4% Obama
Colorado 79.7% Obama
Iowa 84.3% Obama
New Hampshire 84.6% Obama

The following battleground states are now considered safe Obama meaning more than a 90% probability:
Michigan
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
Nevada
Ohio

Obama has 303 EC at least 79%
Obama has 332 EC at least 50%

Last edited by whoman69; 11-06-2012 at 09:58 AM.. Reason: latest update
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Old 11-05-2012, 07:55 PM   #1231
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Originally Posted by Hoover View Post
Exit polls sucked in the 2008 Dem Primary, the 2012 Republican primary, and the Wis Recall. I don't know why we even do them anymore.
Which may explain your discounting the polls and counting on the ground game for Romney.
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Old 11-05-2012, 07:56 PM   #1232
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Originally Posted by cosmo20002 View Post
Sure, and it is possible to win a football game without scoring a touchdown. Possible, but really, really difficult and not probable.
The Chiefs are horrible and they were able to do it. How hard can it be?
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Old 11-05-2012, 07:57 PM   #1233
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Originally Posted by Donger View Post
Nate Silver: The Ron Paul of Democrats.
not quite....

November 2008 presidential election predictions—he correctly predicted the winner of 49 of the 50 states—The only state he missed was Indiana, which went for Barack Obama by 1%. He also correctly predicted the winner of all 35 Senate races that year.
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Old 11-05-2012, 07:58 PM   #1234
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Originally Posted by patteeu View Post
Why does that look so bad for Romney? The flip side is that Obama has to do the same thing, i.e. win one of the two and do well everywhere.
As I stated prior it sounds like they are all but giving up in Ohio and hoping for PA even though it has tightened it is still probably still out of his range. kind of like AZ is for Obama

just my opinion
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Old 11-05-2012, 07:59 PM   #1235
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Originally Posted by cosmo20002 View Post
I understand, but doing well in urban centers (Des Moines, Council Bluffs, Quad Cities area) kind of makes up for Ottumwa and Red Oak.
Romney is going to do well in Council Bluffs, Sioux City, and Davenport.

Obama's play is Des Moines and Cedar Rapids as well as Ames and Iowa City.
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Old 11-05-2012, 08:02 PM   #1236
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hoover View Post
Romney is going to do well in Council Bluffs, Sioux City, and Davenport.

Obama's play is Des Moines and Cedar Rapids as well as Ames and Iowa City.
Eh...ground game in CB, SC, and Davenport may not be as strong as '08, but I think you are giving Romney the best-case scenario in this. JMHO. I still think Obama takes IA. But with your expertise, I could be wrong. If not though, yet another nail in the coffin of Mitt the Mormon.
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Old 11-05-2012, 08:05 PM   #1237
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Romney has always been strong in those areas. He won big in those areas in the 08 and 12 caucuses. He's campaigned there a lot, and has a good organization there. Pott county didn't go for Obama in 2008, so its not going Obama in 2012.
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Old 11-05-2012, 08:14 PM   #1238
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hoover View Post
Romney has always been strong in those areas. He won big in those areas in the 08 and 12 caucuses. He's campaigned there a lot, and has a good organization there. Pott county didn't go for Obama in 2008, so its not going Obama in 2012.
Yeah, Pottawatomie county was a refuge for the Omaha Klan and Joh Bircher groups back-in-the-day...so I can see that.

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Old 11-05-2012, 08:27 PM   #1239
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The latest 538 simulations have Obama winning 94.1% of the time with an average of 314.4 EC. The popular vote is seen as 50.9-48.2 or a 2.7 point lead for Obama.

The closest state contests are:
Florida 52.5% Obama
North Carolina 72.4% Romney
Colorado 80.3% Obama
Virginia 80.3% Obama
New Hampshire 84.9% Obama
Iowa 85.0% Obama

The following battleground states are now considered safe Obama meaning more than a 90% probability:
Michigan
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
Nevada
Ohio

Obama has 303 EC at least 80%
Obama has 332 EC at least 50%

There will probably be another update after midnight. I think the reason for the move towards Obama is there is no more time for Romney to make up ground. The forecast is equal to the now cast vote.
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Old 11-05-2012, 08:28 PM   #1240
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Originally Posted by whoman69 View Post
There will probably be another update after midnight. I think the reason for the move towards Obama is there is no more time for Romney to make up ground. The forecast is equal to the now cast vote.
Nate Silver ‏@fivethirtyeight

Obama gained an average of 1.5 points between 12 national polls published today. Big sample sizes. That's a pretty big deal.
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Old 11-05-2012, 08:30 PM   #1241
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Suffice it to say, if Romney wins this thing, NS is going to lose quite a bit of credibility. I know that cdcox is right with the weatherman comparisons, but when you say you're 92% sure of something and it ends up going the other way, it certainly raises doubts that the 92% was an accurate measure in the first place.
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Old 11-05-2012, 08:31 PM   #1242
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Looks like Nate Silver is going all in...he is more confident of an Obama win than Obama is.
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Old 11-05-2012, 08:35 PM   #1243
whoman69 whoman69 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BigRedChief View Post
Which may explain your discounting the polls and counting on the ground game for Romney.
Obama has 67 local offices in Iowa, Romney has 9. The ground game isn't even close.
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Old 11-05-2012, 08:36 PM   #1244
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If it's true that early voter turnout is down significantly from 2008 then I think NS is going to be buying a lot of ketchup.
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Old 11-05-2012, 08:36 PM   #1245
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mnchiefsguy View Post
Looks like Nate Silver is going all in...he is more confident of an Obama win than Obama is.
Certainly more comfortable than I am. But he is basing it on the polls and they all show Obama winning in alot of these battleground states.
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