Grading the Royals at the Halfway Mark

[gblowfish]

I was thinking about this after last night's game. The Royals are about where I figured they would be, under .500 but slightly improved from last year. Here's my mid term grades on the players and manager, feel free to flame away:

Position Players:

Hosmer C-: Horrible opening stretch, didn't start to hit at all until Brett got ahold of him. Defense is a little above average, but lack of power is a major problem. Still tends to have a big looping swing and strikes out way too much.

Johnson D+: Only hits against Tampa Bay. Too bad we only play them one more time this year. Good baserunner, adequate defensively. OK as a utility guy, too weak on offense to be a legit starter.

Escobar C-: Offense has regressed this year. Very streaky hitter. Will hit in clutch sometimes, but has trouble moving runners when in the #2 spot. Has had defensive lapses, makes a hard play then boots an easy one. May be he needs more days off, grind may be getting to him.

Moose F: Except for Francoeur, biggest liability in the lineup in first half. Mind numbing how bad this guy has been on offense. King of stranding runners. Sultan of swish, Prince of the Pop Up. Once we start the fire sale, send his ass to Omaha and let him think about it. Needs to come to camp in better condition. He looks doughy, and it's hurt his defense this year. Not getting to balls that he used to reach, slow on the bases, when he manages to get on. All in all a horrific season from a guy GMDM was counting on.

Gordon: A-: Great start, has tailed off over the last month. I would say Alex is the best defensive left fielder in baseball. He is really that good. Offensively, he has not been the kind of all star go to guy that he should be. He has his moments, like the grand slam in Detroit, and he has his moments, like striking out on a slider in the dirt with the tying runs on in the eighth and nobody out. He is one of the few starters we have that you can say is a legitimate big time major league player, and he's still growing and maturing. All in all, he's had a good first half.

Cain C: He has stayed healthy. That's good. He strikes out a lot. A really lot. That's bad. He is a very streaky hitter. He can go weeks doing nothing, then he can tear the cover off the ball for a couple days. Outfield defense has been pretty good, except for the ball he booted in the last Oakland series that cost us the game. If he can walk more, cut down on the strikeouts, he'll be a good reliable center fielder.

Lough B: Should have broke camp as our starting RF if it wasn't for GMDM's boner for Frenchy. Very good defensive player, good contact guy, doesn't strike out a lot. Hustles. Needs work on his base running skills. For a late call up, he has played very well and improved our outfield.

Dyson B-: Before he got hurt, he was leading the team in slugging. Great base runner, when he can get on. Bit of a defensive liability, less than average arm and takes weird routes to the ball. Has trouble in pressure situations moving runners or making contact. Stood and looked at strike three Friday night to end the Cleveland game. Ankle injury slowed his progress. Good fourth outfielder, and a premier pinch runner for Fat Boy.

Perez A-: Salvy would get an "A" as our first All-Star Catcher in ions except for a couple of things. One, he has not hit for as much power as we should get from a guy his size. Second, he lollygagged when grandma kicked off. Thought he took way too much time away, and while he was gone, the team floundered. He calls a great game, has one of the best throwing arms in baseball, and is a great quarterback for the pitching staff. You can tell the pitchers love his blocking ability behind the plate. Dude should be an all star for years to come if he can stay healthy. Ned may need to give him some days off during the dog days. Very well deserved All Star pick.

Butler B-: A down year compared to last year in power and average. Butler needs to get in better condition. He looks out of shape, worse than Moose. Slower than he should be, he's bordering on Harmon Killibrew at age 40 slow. Walks a lot, but has been pressing here over the past couple weeks and has had some killing oh fer days. He also needs to cut down on the K's, and work in the off season to drop about 15 lbs and muscle up. He could be a young Jim Thome if he really worked at it.

Reserves:

Tejada B: Has played very well for a 39 year old. Has given the Royals everything they expected and then some. Flexible, can play second and third, and never looks confused at the plate. Wish he was ten years younger.

Getz D-: Played pretty well in April, actually hit a home run in Atlanta, then did his typical swirl down the toilet bowl, and finished by not executing bunts before being sent down for Gio. We should probably trade him out of the organization, because he's never going to get any better. Move on to the next contestant.

Gio D+: I want to like this guy, I really do. He hustles, reminds me of a young Chuck Knoblach. But every time he rips in up in Omaha, we call him up, and he just shits the bed. He killed it his first day up in Minnesota, and has gone oh for every game since. When you get your chance you have to make something out of it (see David Lough). If he doesn't come around in the second half, I say get him out of the organization and look elsewhere.

Kottaras C-: The good stuff: He walks a lot and will hit you a homer every once in awhile. Very calm at the plate, hard to rattle. Bad Stuff: Can't hit over .200, weaker defense than Salvy -that would be true for whoever Salvy's back up was- and tends to allow pass balls or wild pitches at very inopportune times. Still, he's better than Bryan Pena. If he could just add about 40 points to his average….

Frenchy F: Seven Million Dollars down the dumper. Guy has a great smile, should be popular with the fellahs in San Francisco.

Starting Pitching:

Shields B+: Guy has been everything advertised. Not his fault we don't score any runs for him. Sometimes starts slow and gets behind early, but he is a battler. Reminds me of Dennis Leonard in his heyday. Dude hates to lose, wish we could transfuse his character into the rest of the ball club.

Santana B: Innings eater, still gets bit by the long ball. Over the past couple weeks seems to have lost his focus, maybe because of all the trade talk. Has been great at times, certainly better than anybody else behind him in this list of starters. Wouldn't be surprised to see him traded to the National League by the deadline.

Guthrie B: Has been a reliable decent starter, last night grooved a meatball for a cheap grand salami, but usually does a good job pitching out of trouble. Has been more good than bad, and with better offense, could have three or four more wins. He's our only opening season rotation starter with a winning record.

Davis C: Started out pretty well, but this guy is a long reliever posing as a starter. He's a lot like Chen or Mendoza, not consistent enough to be a reliable starter, but pitches good enough to hang around on the roster, as his ERA is now pushing six. Hopefully his spot in the rotation will be taken by Duffy soon.

Mendoza C-: I think he's tired. He pitched in the World Competition before spring training, so he hasn't had a long rest for awhile. When he's on, he's very good. When he's off he gets his ass handed to him in a hurry. A month rest in the bullpen might be exactly what the doc ordered.

Chen C: Goes to show you if you're left handed, you can hang around in the bigs for a long time. Pitched well against Cleveland on Friday, but was lucky he didn't get pounded. You can't throw letter high middle in 85 mph fastballs for long and survive in the bigs. He's getting near the end of his run, we should probably trade him before the deadline. Can't see him in next years plans.

Relief:

Crow C: This guy is under achieving for where he was picked. We're paying him a shitload of money for 1/3rd of an inning in the seventh. Too unpredictable, has the stuff to win, but can't seem to harness his control.

Hoch C-: Same thing as Crow, way under achieving for where he was picked. This guy soils himself at the first sign of pressure. Pitches great if you're ahead or behind by four runs. But bring him in when you need a stop or a hold, and you're ****ed. I'd try to trade him by the deadline, he's never going to be anything but what he is now, which is a big chuck of chicken shit and dead payroll.

Collins C-: Good start, but the midget has been getting pounded lately. Same drill as last year. Sometimes he looks great, sometimes he can't get anybody out. Tends to overthrow and walk guys at critical junctures. Needs to focus and command his stuff. He's got great attitude for a reliever, he just can't back up the attitude often enough to be reliable.

Gutierrez D+: When he comes in, Ned has raised the white flag. Looks like CC Sebathia's little brother, except he can be hit with ease. He's just a warm body holding down a spot.

Coleman C+: Should have broke camp, but Herrera took his spot. Has pitched well when given the opportunity, but last year got rocked in the second half. We'll see how he does in August.

Herrera D: Guy has the stuff to be a big time closer. Can throw the ball through a brick wall. But when a major league hitter times his fastball, it tends to leave the park. Often. He's still young, needs to harness his control and pitch smarter. He'll be OK, just needs more time to mature.

Joseph and Smith Incomplete: Not enough time up yet to evaluate fairly.

Holland A: Should have made the All Star Team. Had a couple of rocky outings in April, but has been lights out since. Everything you could ask for in a closer. Number of K's is outstanding, one of the best hard sliders in the American League. Give this guy a raise.

Manager:

Ned C-: Well, Ned has personally cost us about four or five games this year with stupid managing, but all managers have a few clunkers. He has kept us within the tail lights of Detroit up till now, but we'll probably fade to double digits after the break. Ned is pretty much Buddy Bell. He's not going to ever be a top drawer manager. DMGM will probably give him one more year, because DMGM has one more year on his contract. They'll either both survive together or jump off the cliff together, depending on what happens in the second half.

[BlackHelicopters]

If loving Kuntz is wrong, I don't want to be right.

['Hamas' Jenkins]

Originally Posted by gblowfish

OK, I understand all that, but luck and defense are part of the reality of a game. Sometimes you get lucky, like Chen was Friday night. Sometimes your defense saves your ass. Guthrie has more K's than walks this year. His 22 homers is worst for starters, but Santana has given up 16, that's a lot too. Guthrie can give up fly balls in Kauffman, because you have to really clock one to get it out. I understand where your coming from, though. If he stays lucky, then great. Sometimes luck is all you need.

No one stays lucky in baseball, and Kauffman's reputation as some kind of cavern for flyballs is totally off base. It's a completely neutral park. Rangers ballpark in Arlington has a lower park factor this year.

[Prison Bitch]

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

Crow's pitch to Bourn on Friday was a good pitch. The cement mixers that Chen had guys popping out on weren't. One guy was really lucky; one guy wasn't.

s.t.f.u. Crow was garbage that inning and most innings he's pitched this year. Quit defending him because he went to Mizzou. He walked the first batter anyway, and got behind guys he allowed hits to.

[Prison Bitch]

I agree with those grades above for the most part. I would give Shields an A or A- at worst, given he's on pace for a 5 WAR season and the team has won his last 8 starts. Who cares what his personal record is, we'd be much worse without him. LIkely 3 games.


I'd move Butler from a B- down to C-. He's been awful. He has zero power this year suddenly and he's making 8M. That's unacceptable.


I'd make Holland an A+ since he's got the fourth highest K rate in history right now. Surely that's an A+?


I'd move Guthrie and Davies (lol) down a grade too.

['Hamas' Jenkins]

Originally Posted by Prison Bitch

s.t.f.u. Crow was garbage that inning and most innings he's pitched this year. Quit defending him because he went to Mizzou. He walked the first batter anyway, and got behind guys he allowed hits to.

Bottom right, below the strikezone, dumbass. That's a pretty ****ing tough pitch to hit. It has nothing to do with defending Crow. I don't give a shit about where he went to school.

[Pasta Little Brioni]

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

Fielding Independent Pitching is a measurement of what a pitcher would do if you removed luck and defense from the equation, giving him league average luck on balls in play. It's an attempt to normalize for the pitchers who have good defense behind them, and who are riding good/bad streaks of luck in order to truly evaluate their worth.

xFIP adds in the league average HR/FB ratio to better normalize the measurement.

It works extremely well. If a pitcher has an xFIP higher than their ERA they are getting lucky. Lower and they are unlucky.


Further explanation:

Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) measures what a player’s ERA should have looked like over a given time period, assuming that performance on balls in play and timing were league average. Back in the early 2000s, research by Voros McCracken revealed that the amount of balls that fall in for hits against pitchers do not correlate well across seasons. In other words, pitchers have little control over balls in play. McCracken outlined a better way to assess a pitcher’s talent level by looking at results a pitcher can control: strikeouts, walks, hit by pitches, and homeruns.


A walk is not as harmful as a homerun and a strikeout has less impact than both. FIP accounts for these kinds of differences, presenting the results on the same scale as ERA. It has been shown to be more effective than ERA in terms of predicting future performance and has become a mainstay in sabermetric analysis.

Flawed. How does that factor in "weak contact"? A pitcher that gets a lot of popups and soft grounders is going to have more success. All balls put in play are not equal.

[gblowfish]

Hamas: I thought this chart was interesting: How each park figures into things this year:
http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor

['Hamas' Jenkins]

Meanwhile, this is why Chen was lucky on Friday:



Dude lived in the middle of the plate and never once got truly punished for it

[Prison Bitch]

Crow came into a 0-0 game with two runners on. And promptly gave up 3 straight hits to break the game open 3-0. Quit defending him. He sucks this year. And quit lying about why you defended him.

['Hamas' Jenkins]

Originally Posted by PGM

Flawed. How does that factor in "weak contact"? A pitcher that gets a lot of popups and soft grounders is going to have more success. All balls put in play are not equal.

No shit. Which is why it penalizes flyballs.

Again:

Back in the early 2000s, research by Voros McCracken revealed that the amount of balls that fall in for hits against pitchers do not correlate well across seasons. In other words, pitchers have little control over balls in play. McCracken outlined a better way to assess a pitcher’s talent level by looking at results a pitcher can control: strikeouts, walks, hit by pitches, and homeruns.

['Hamas' Jenkins]

Originally Posted by Prison Bitch

Crow came into a 0-0 game with two runners on. And promptly gave up 3 straight hits to break the game open 3-0. Quit defending him. He sucks this year. And quit lying about why you defended him.

Listen you stupid ****ing ****, I don't give two shits about Aaron Crow, Max Scherzer, Ian Kinsler, or any other Missouri Tiger that isn't a St. Louis Cardinal.

Crow is a worthwhile point of analysis for the outcome of his AB vs. Bourn in contrast to what Chen did that same night. Nearly unhittable pitches get hit sometimes, and meatballs get missed.

I'm sorry that such an elementary concept is totally lost upon your infantile cognition.

[Prison Bitch]

Bruce Chen has the same FIP Crow does this year. Why you're trying to make a point about one game (in which Crow sucked anyway) is strange.

['Hamas' Jenkins]

Originally Posted by Prison Bitch

Bruce Chen has the same FIP Crow does this year. Why you're trying to make a point about one game (in which Crow sucked anyway) is strange.

Is it even possible to be as dumb as you appear?

I was not defending Crow. Point me to one post or word that suggests he pitched well in that performance. I was making the rather simple to understand point that the pitch Bourn doubled off of him was a pitcher's pitch. Completely irrespective of everything else, that was a hard pitch to hit, and yet Bourn still managed to hit it well.

That's a textbook example of bad luck, just like Chen's performance was a textbook example of good luck.

It's not that hard to figure out, but since you are the type that needs the "CAUTION: HOT" warnings on coffee cups, I'm not surprised that you have to invent a narrative about what I didn't say rather than analyzing what I actually said.

[Prison Bitch]

Michael Bourne's hit chart this year shows he hits .272 on low balls over the plate and .462 on low balls inside the plate. Given that your chart shows it was on the border between the two zones, it should come as no surprise he hit it.
http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/player/...=michael-bourn


Which makes your entire thesis completely absurd and stupid.

[gblowfish]

Alright you two, mano a mano, Bill James Baseball Prospectus' at dawn.....