GMs Chris Ballard and Dorsey believe there are only 15 first round talents

[Iconic]

This is just the opinion of one GM but I thought it might be interesting to all in regards to mock drafts.

Ballard: “All of these mock drafts are wrong” Reporter: “Aren’t they always?” Ballard: “Yea but this year they’re really wrong.”

Ballard explains that he sees 14 players in this draft who are blue chip, elite level players. From 15 through the top of the third, “the talent level is consistent.”

The takeaway here is Ballard is saying that the back half of the first and the second round are going to be very different than what people think. What that means for mock drafters is don’t be afraid to put guys higher than the crowd thinks because you might be right. A lot of these solidified late 1st guys won’t go that high, according to him.

Secondly

In breaking down the trade on the Move the Sticks podcast with Bucky Brooks (filling in for Daniel Jeremiah), NFL.com’s Lance Zierlein dropped the knowledge nugget. “I had heard that the Browns considered there to be 15 players that are first round players in this year’s draft,” Zierlein explained. “That sounds about right. About 15 guys who are first round picks. Analytics is always about quantifying value so, for them, that 17th pick, they considered that a second round player, generally speaking. In the Browns’ mind, they considered they were giving up a second-round player and not a first round player. That makes even more sense right now,”

So in response who do you believe are the 15 elite level players in this draft?

[MAHOMO 4 LIFE!]

Originally Posted by pugsnotdrugs19

I’d probably add Devin Bush and Byron Murphy if they’re available. I think they can be day one difference makers.

Devin Bush is projected top 10

[Chris Meck]

Originally Posted by MAHOMO 4 LIFE!

Devin Bush is projected top 10

well, right now I see like 35 guys all projected in that top ten.

positionally speaking, a top ten MLB is rare. A top ten TE is rare. or a Guard or Center.

Or a run stuffer.

lots of OT's, QB's, WR's, pass rushers, CB's.

[In58men]

Originally Posted by Iconic

Heard some buzz that the Jets are desperate to trade down and the Falcons/Lions are interested in doing so as well.

#3 and #8 are pretty unrealistic but #14? At that spot we'd be in perfect range to get the guy we want.

Who’s the guy @ 14

[Chris Meck]

Originally Posted by In58men

Who’s the guy @ 14

Rashan Gary or Clelin Ferrell I'd think.

[RunKC]

This isn’t any different than most years. It’s usually around 15-20 guys mentioned as first rd talents.

[FAX]

What an odd thing ...

Two guys who can't see eye-to-eye when they're with the Chiefs are now simpatico because their numbers seem to match? It's a crazy world.

FAX

[Angry fan]

That settles it! Chiefs must trade down to avoid oblivion!

[Chris Meck]

Originally Posted by RunKC

This isn’t any different than most years. It’s usually around 15-20 guys mentioned as first rd talents.

that's true.

It's also true that some of those guys will still end up being taken in the second round.

It's also true that half to two-thirds of the first round guys will flame out.

it's also true that at least one of them will end up a Chief by 2021, as Veach seems to love the low-risk, high reward change-of-scenery reclamation project.
I ain't mad at him.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by MAHOMO 4 LIFE!

Devin Bush is projected top 10

I'd be floored if there were 2 MLBs taken in the top 10 of this draft, not with the number of high-end DL/OL sitting there.

So unless you think Bush is a better prospect than White, I'd say the odds of Bush going in the to 10 are pretty remote.

[In58men]

Originally Posted by Chris Meck

Rashan Gary or Clelin Ferrell I'd think.

I’d love either one.

I can see Chiefs staying at 29 and drafting Dexter Lawrence.

[pugsnotdrugs19]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

I'd be floored if there were 2 MLBs taken in the top 10 of this draft, not with the number of high-end DL/OL sitting there.

So unless you think Bush is a better prospect than White, I'd say the odds of Bush going in the to 10 are pretty remote.

I think there’s a pretty good chance that Bush ends up being better than White long term. But I fully expect White to be picked first.

I think Bush instantly makes this defense probably a top 5ish unit in terms of run defense. His speed will change games, if the Chiefs can manage to pull that off.

[Kiimo]

This draft is way deeper than most drafts.

Imagine the Chiefs had the first or third pick this year. Compare and contrast the level of talent we'd get than Eric Fisher or Tyson Jackson.

I think there will be "first round" talent available well into the 20s. Especially if teams reach for these mediocre quarterbacks and receivers and running backs.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by Kiimosabi

This draft is way deeper than most drafts.

Imagine the Chiefs had the first or third pick this year. Compare and contrast the level of talent we'd get than Eric Fisher or Tyson Jackson.

I think there will be "first round" talent available well into the 20s. Especially if teams reach for these mediocre quarterbacks and receivers and running backs.

I think this draft has more 2nd round talent than many, but I think it's a few players short on true 1st round talent.

And I think that's predominantly due to a weaker than average crop of DBs and an iffier class of WRs than you often see (super deep milddle of the WR class but everyone at the top has questions, IMO - AJ Brown might be the safest one of the lot).

{shrug} Just ready to get this show on the road...

[mcaj22]

even if this is true, isn't the value of having that 5th year option in the first round on a guy that might be second round talent more than worth it from the salary cap perspective? Especially with the way teams are massively overpaying the top end of today's NFL talent pool. Like, just because the grades take a nose dive, do you really want to just sit on your heels and drop the second because of grade value?

Isn't the value in locking a guy down for 5 years (6 with a tag) in the first round so much better than picking that same guy in the 2nd or 3rd? Assuming the pick hits of course. (Or if the pick takes a couple seasons to develop, you still have some control)

[Pitt Gorilla]

I still don’t see the disadvantage in staying put. There will be good players at our pick.